Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Two Presque Isle Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 7, at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of two Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle Downs.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 1: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 1 p.m. ET)

#1 Skyler’s Starship (9-5) exits a runner-up finish in a one-mile allowance for New York-breds at Saratoga. The speedy three-year-old has set the pace in three of his last four starts and isn’t facing any obvious pace rivals at Finger Lakes, setting the stage for victory even while stepping outside the New York-bred ranks.

#5 Marty’s Magic (5-2), who is 2-for-2 at Finger Lakes, can chase home the favorite to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Skyler’s Starship (9-5)
• #5 Marty’s Magic (5-2)
• #2 Two Jay’s Way (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 1 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#2 Evalina (5-2) debuted with a runner-up finish in a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Laurel Park. Sticking to the same class level and distance while shipping to Horseshoe Indianapolis can lead to victory. After all, trainer Jonathan Thomas has gone 5-for-18 (28%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet and wins with 25% of his second-time starters.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Evalina (5-2)
• #7 Viral Plane Lady (7-5)
• #3 Max’s Redemption (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Evalina

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#8 Dirty Talker (10-1) showed some tactical speed when finishing fifth in his debut racing 7 1/2 furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. There are reasons to believe he can improve while switching to dirt for his second start.

First off, trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters. Even better, he wins at a 34% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.

At 10-1, Dirty Talker is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #8 Dirty Talker (10-1)
• #6 Spooky Ridge (5-2)
• #2 Wicked Vette (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Dirty Talker

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,194 Pick 5 carryover (3 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,435 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

There are two non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers up for grabs at Presque Isle Downs on Monday. The 50-cent Early Pick 5 features a $1,194 prize pool, while the carryover for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 stands at $1,435.

The sequences for the two wagers overlap in races 4 and 5. If you fail to select the winners of these races, you won’t hit either Pick 5.

Let’s analyze both races and determine which horses to use:

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta)

Seven juvenile fillies have entered this maiden sprint. #2 Joys of Summer (8-5) owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in the field, having posted a 66 when finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 17. But in her debut two starts back, she finished fourth, 2 1/2 lengths behind third-place finisher #4 Courageous Ari (5-2). The latter has cracked the trifecta in three straight starts over Monday’s track and class level.

Separating Joys of Summer and Courageous Ari is difficult, so we may have to use them both. Also, first-time starter #6 Street Wish (9-2) warrants inclusion after putting together a sharp work tab capped off by a bullet five furlongs from the Belterra Park starting gate in 1:00 1/5.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Street Wish since trainer Timothy Hamm has gone 0-for-6 debuting juveniles at Presque Isle Downs this meet. But five of those starters finished in the top three, and Hamm’s record debuting juveniles at Presque Isle since 2019 is a solid 10-for-56 (18%), so perhaps Hamm is due for a win.

Race 5: $25,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

In contrast to race 4, race 5 offers a viable single in the form of #2 Rusty My Brother (7-5).

Following a long series of sprint starts, four-year-old filly Rusty My Brother stretched out over one mile for a $25,000 allowance optional claimer against Pennsylvania-breds on Sept. 17 at Presque Isle. The result? A gate-to-wire victory by 3 1/4 lengths. Rusty My Brother posted a quick final time and earned a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Monday’s field.

Rusty My Brother is stepping outside the Pennsylvania-bred ranks for this $25,000 starter optional claimer, but she looms as the lone speed horse on paper and should be mighty tough to catch for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Gaddiel Martinez and Eduardo Rojas.

Good luck!