Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Two stakes at Assiniboia

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 16 at Assiniboia Downs, along with a single for the $1,104 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: Buffalo S. (one mile on dirt, 9 p.m. ET)

At one time or another, #3 Mr. Splash (8-5) has defeated each of the four horses he’ll face in the Buffalo. Stretching out over one mile is unexplored territory for the son of Nonios, but the same goes for his rivals, and Mr. Splash seems likely to maintain his supremacy even while racing beyond six furlongs for the first time.

Let’s single Mr. Splash to start a large double wager.

Selections

• #3 Mr. Splash (8-5)
• #5 Betterlucknexttime (9-5)
• #1 He Knows We Know (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 Double: 3 with 1

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Under Budget (1-1) has finished second in each of her last two starts racing 7 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level. She earned a career-best 74 Brisnet Speed rating in her latest effort, when she finished only three-quarters of a length behind the winner.

Under Budget has recently defeated most of the horses she’ll face on Monday. The only one she hasn’t conquered, #5 Majestic Appeal (8-1), is a last-out maiden winner stretching out significantly in distance.

From all appearances, Under Budget has found the perfect spot to secure her first allowance win. Let’s single her to conclude and start double wagers.

Selections

• #1 Under Budget (1-1)
• #2 Midnightcandystorm (6-1)
• #5 Majestic Appeal (8-1)

Wagers

• $10 Double: 1 with 3

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: J. W. Sifton S. (1 1/8 miles on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#6 No Show No Call (1-5) is the big favorite, but his near-perfect 5-4-1-0 record sprinting towers over his 2-0-0-1 record running long. He was beaten 4 3/4 lengths when third in the one-mile Phil Kives S. one start after finishing a distant seventh in the 1 1/8-mile Manitoba Derby.

No Show No Call doesn’t appear unbeatable while stretching back out over 1 1/8 miles, so let’s take a shot backing #3 Pickin’ Riffs (15-1) for an upset. In his first start beyond six furlongs, Pickin’ Riffs wired a 7 1/2-furlong $7,500 maiden claimer at Assiniboia last month by 3 3/4 lengths, earning a career-best 70 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s only three points lower than the number No Show No Call posted in the Phil Kives and nine points higher than No Show No Call’s Manitoba Derby number.

At 15-1, Pickin’ Riffs is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also single him to conclude our $10 double wager.

Selections

• #3 Pickin’ Riffs (15-1)
• #6 No Show No Call (1-5)
• #1 J L Copper (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Pickin’ Riffs

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,104 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Presque Isle Downs is highlighted by a $1,104 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Want to know what you’re up against if you decide to play? Let’s crunch some numbers. The five races have drawn a total of 50 horses before scratches, averaging 10 per race. One race drew only seven starters, but three others drew 11 or more. It works out to 88,704 possible outcomes, a pretty hefty number for a Pick 5.

That said, race 5 — the second leg of the Pick 5 and the one featuring only seven horses — looks like a logical place in which to seek a single. Morning-line favorite #1 Clearly Copper (5-2) is a compelling choice, and if you opt to single Clearly Copper, that slices the number of Pick 5 outcomes to analyze down to 12,672.

Race 5 is an allowance for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. The conditions should suit Clearly Copper just fine. Formerly a turf and dirt campaigner, Clearly Copper has improved sharply since switching to Tapeta for trainer Nolan Ramsey, who took over Clearly Copper’s training two starts back.

In her first start for Ramsey, Clearly Copper smashed a $35,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over Gulfstream Park’s Tapeta track, tracking a slow pace before taking over to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Then came a 1 1/16-mile $50,000 starter optional claimer over the same track, in which Clearly Copper launched a last-to-first rally from behind an honest pace to beat four rivals by half a length, earning a career-best 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

That 88 stacks up well at Presque Isle Downs. None of her race 5 rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 84, nor a rating higher than 81 on synthetic.

Throw in the fact Ramsey has gone 3-for-6 (50%) at Presque Isle this meet, with two other starters finishing in the top three, and Clearly Copper looks perfectly positioned to bring her record on Tapeta to 3-for-3.

Good luck!