Monmouth Park: How to bet the Pegasus Stakes

It’s common for Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races to feature at least one “hype horse” who draws the majority of pre-race attention from analysts and bettors.

But the hype horse isn’t always the most likely winner, and such a scenario might be unfolding in Saturday’s $150,000 Pegasus S. at Monmouth Park, the final prep race in advance of the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby.

With 20 qualification points at stake, the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus has drawn a competitive field, yet the pre-race narrative has pegged #5 Pneumatic (5-2) as a clear favorite.

It’s easy to understand why. The talented son of Uncle Mo has posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 94-97 range and enters off a respectable fourth-place effort in the Belmont Stakes (G1), where he was defeated only by established Kentucky Derby contenders Tiz the Law, Dr Post, and Max Player.

But Pneumatic isn’t the fastest horse in the Pegasus field. Three of his rivals have earned higher Brisnet Speed ratings, including the formidable duo of #7 As Seen On Tv and #8 Jesus’ Team.

Both As Seen On Tv and Jesus’ Team have run strong races at Monmouth Park. The former won his debut over the track last summer and finished second in the Smoke Glacken S., while the rapidly improving Jesus’ Team enters the Pegasus off a fourth-place effort in the Haskell (G1), when he earned a 99 Brisnet Speed rating.

Jesus’ Team is the “now” horse, with an ideal blend of tactical speed and ratability, but As Seen On Tv is the more dangerous contender if he brings his "A" game. 

In November, the stoutly bred son of Lookin At Lucky won the Juvenile Sprint S. at Gulfstream Park West with a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, and he ran even faster when he stretched out to a mile in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park, where he posted a 103 when beaten a head by multi-stakes winner Chance It.

As Seen On Tv’s form went south as the winter wore on, but he has been freshened since an eighth-place effort in the March 28 Florida Derby (G1) and could be poised to rebound for trainer Kelly Breen, a 27% winner at Monmouth this season.

Let’s try to beat Pneumatic by playing Jesus’ Team and As Seen On Tv on top in the trifecta.

$1.50 trifecta: 7,8 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 7,8 with 5,7,8 with ALL ($12)
$0.50 trifecta: 7,8 with ALL with 5,7,8 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!