More named Future Wager options get 2023 Kentucky Derby starts

With the Kentucky Derby (G1) just one day away, it’s worth a look to see how the Future Wager pools are set to play out, and how that might impact betting strategies for the big race.

The increase in the number of betting options from 24 to 40 produced many more named individuals in each pool. And whether by coincidence or not, there were more individually-selected horses in the later Future Wager pools that have made it to the Churchill Downs gates on the first Saturday in May.

Last year there were five Future Wager pools. Pool 1 had six eventual Derby runners, Pool 2 had eight, Pool 3 had nine, Pool 4 had 13, and Pool 5 had 16. Subsequent longshot winner Rich Strike wasn’t an individual option in any of them.

As of Friday morning, this is how many horses from each of this year’s six pools have made it to the Derby:

Pool 1, Nov. 1-3: Cyclone Mischief, Forte, Hit Show, Rocket Can, Two Phil’s, Verifying (6).

Pool 2, Nov. 24-27: Cyclone Mischief, Disarm, Forte, Hit Show, Rocket Can, Verifying (6).

Pool 3, Jan. 20-22: Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Cyclone Mischief, Disarm, Forte, Hit Show, Jace’s Road, Kingsbarns, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying (13).

Pool 4, Feb. 10-12: Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Cyclone Mischief, Disarm, Forte, Hit Show, Jace’s Road, Kingsbarns, Mage, Rocket Can, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying (13).

Pool 5, March 10-12: Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Cyclone Mischief, Disarm, Forte, Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Mage, Mandarin Hero, Raise Cain, Reincarnate, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying (16).

Pool 6, March 30-April 1: Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Cyclone Mischief, Derma Sotogake, Disarm, Forte, Hit Show, Jace’s Road, Kingsbarns, Mage, Mandarin Hero, Raise Cain, Reincarnate, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying (18).

Looking at these, if you took the “all others” option any time from Pool 3 onward, you’re probably worried. For Pool 3 it was still the favored option at odds of 2-1, but come Saturday you’ll only have six horses running for you: Derma Sotogake, King Russell, Mage, Mandarin Hero, Raise Cain, and Reincarnate. The odds were the same for Pool 4, but again you’d only have six runners, substituting Mage for Sun Thunder from the Pool 3 list.

For Pool 5, the “all others” odds were 10-1; for that you will have just Derma Sotogake, King Russell, and Jace’s Road, and only Derma Sotogake is at odds of less than 50-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line. From Pool 6, for 17-1 odds your only runner is King Russell.

On the other hand, if you took Angel of Empire in Pool 3 or Pool 4 at odds of more than 100-1, you're probably feeling pretty good about yourself—especially if he wins!

If you’ve bet on the Future Wager, it would be understandable if you looked at some options to cover yourself. It depends on the types of bets you have made.

If you took a horse at long odds that’s now much shorter – for example, pretty much any horse bar Forte in Pool 3 and Pool 4 that now has a start – then you can probably take several other horses to help give you a chance of making money should your Future Wager selection not win.

Whatever you do, don’t get too carried away: given the variables in the large Derby field, the chances of getting your covering bets wrong are quite high and you don’t want a huge loss to mar your Derby day experience.