New Year’s Day Best Bets and Quick Picks: Pletcher at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Jan. 1 at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park, including horses to play in the $2,447 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 15% Oaklawn Profit Boost: Earn a 15% bonus on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers in all races at Oaklawn Park on Monday. Maximum bonus amount for the day is $25.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of January.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#4 Skip the Line (12-1) hasn’t shown much in his first two starts sprinting, on the New York circuit, finishing ninth and seventh. But his seventh-place finish (in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct) came with a troubled start, and he actually passed a few rivals late to finish 9 1/4 lengths behind the winner.

Skip the Line sold for $425,000 as a yearling and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who tends to win maiden special weights in bunches during the winter at Gulfstream Park. Skip the Line has posted a couple of bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs in recent weeks and is adding Lasix for his three-year-old debut, so you can make a case for this well-bred son of Into Mischief to move forward while stretching out around two turns under four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz.

We’ll keep things simple with a large win bet on Skip the Line.

Selections

• #4 Skip the Line (12-1)
• #6 Resilience (9-5)
• #8 Domingo (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Skip the Line

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Tipsy Tammy (5-2) has been working up a storm for trainer Philip Bauer, a 26% winner with first-time starters. On Dec. 16, she breezed five furlongs from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :59 2/5, which followed swift half-mile workouts at Churchill Downs in :46 2/5 and :47 during November.

Tipsy Tammy is a daughter of Arrogate, who sires a respectable 14% winners from first-time starters. All signs suggest Tipsy Tammy is sitting on a sharp debut, so let’s bet her to win and hope her 5-2 morning line odds hold up.

Selections

• #3 Tipsy Tammy (5-2)
• #1 Who’s Ticket (7-2)
• #6 Impel (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Tipsy Tammy

Oaklawn Park: Race 9: Smarty Jones S. (1 1/16 miles, 5:14 p.m. ET)

#2 Catching Freedom (9-2) looks like a solid play at enticing odds in this Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier. The Brad Cox trainee trounced his debut racing one mile at Churchill Downs, beating a next-out winner by 3 3/4 lengths, then endured a traffic-filled trip when fourth in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill. Watching the replay, it’s easy to believe Catching Freedom would have won if he’d gotten a clear path.

Since morning line favorite #7 Just Steel (9-5) is uncertain to relish racing 1 1/16 miles, let’s bet Catching Freedom to win and key him over stablemate #9 Fidget (15-1) and Churchill Downs allowance winner #3 Lagynos (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Catching Freedom (9-2)
• #3 Lagynos (6-1)
• #9 Fidget (15-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #2 Catching Freedom
• $3 Exacta: 2 with 3,9 ($6)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $2,447 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Fair Grounds is celebrating New Year’s Day with a $2,447 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The first Pick 6 carryover of 2024 looks challenging to solve. The sequence spans Race 4 through Race 9, a slate containing 57 horses (averaging 9.5 per race) and 699,840 possible outcomes before scratches. Every race contains at least eight horses, and finding a trustworthy single to build tickets around is tricky.

We thought about recommending #3 Tipsy Tammy (5-2) in Race 6, thanks to her promising credentials outlined above. But while Tipsy Tammy is worthy of a win play, singling her in a Pick 6 seems risky. Even though her workouts are strong, we’ve yet to see her race, so there’s a chance she won’t deliver on her promising morning exercises. And even if she does, there are six other first-time starters in the field, and they’re conditioned by such notable names as Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox, and Tom Amoss. Pick 6 bettors might want to include the most promising of these debuting runners as backup.

Then we looked at Race 8, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares traveling about 1 1/16 miles on turf. At first glance, #2 Heckled (3-1) offers appeal as a single possibility; the Godolphin homebred exits a respectable fourth-place finish in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland and previously placed second in four straight maiden special weights running long at Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, and Kentucky Downs.

But do we really want to build Pick 6 tickets around a filly with an 8-0-4-1 lifetime record? Her tendency to settle for minor awards is at least a little concerning. Perhaps we should include #10 Sri Lanka (9-2) as well. Granted, her 6-0-4-0 record trends in the same direction as Heckled, but Sri Lanka has knocked heads with quality competition on both dirt and turf and may find a maiden special weight over the Fair Grounds grass to be just the right fit.

After considerable pondering, we nearly suggested #6 Surely Shirley (3-1) as a viable single in Race 7, a 1 1/16-mile dirt allowance for fillies and mares. She hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts for hot trainer Brad Cox, most recently finishing third in a 1 1/8-mile Keeneland allowance behind next-out Comely (G3) winner Raging Sea. The only concern is her lack of tactical speed—Surely Shirley is a pure stretch runner who may prove vulnerable against #8 Thestral (7-2), a speedier filly last seen trouncing a 1 1/16-mile $80,000 claimer at Keeneland by 3 1/2 lengths.

So there you have it—there isn’t an obvious single in this competitive Pick 6. To have the best chance at cashing a winning ticket, we recommend using at least two horses in every leg, though not more than two if possible. Surely Shirley and Thestral in Race 7 and Heckled and Sri Lanka in Race 8 are two examples we recommend.

Good luck!