Oaklawn Park handicapping: A Pick 3 single for Friday

If you like handicapping competitive races with large fields, Oaklawn Park is your place. Another challenging, 10-race card awaits Friday, and I have found a play early in the program.

The second race drew an overflow field (12, plus an also-eligible entry), and a contested pace is likely, with several frontrunners present in the $16,000 claiming event for non-winners of two races lifetime.

#7 Violent Storm rallied to post a nice win over the track earlier in the meet, and I’m expecting a top showing in the gelding’s second start off the claim for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Violent Storm switched from turf to dirt and finished a good third, beaten less than a length, against $20,000 claiming rivals at Keeneland in October. A few starts later, he returned from a two-month layoff to post a two-length decision at Oaklawn Feb. 6. That was his first race at the Arkansas track, and Asmussen claimed the 5-year-old for a $10,000 tag.

The Hall of Fame trainer freshened Violent Storm for two months and brought him back at this level in early April. The chestnut didn’t run poorly. He finishing fourth in an even effort, with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating that is on par with his main rivals Friday, and the second start back under these conditions is go-time for the Asmussen stable.

In first starts off a claim, Asmussen has won with four of his 32 starters (13%) this year. He has recorded a 41% strike rate in the second start off the claim in 2020 (seven wins from 17 starters). That’s a small sample size, but the last five years shows the second start off a claim to be a strength for the barn, with 54 wins from 217 attempts (25%).

Further evidence suggests Violent Storm’s last race should set him up for an optimal performance. After a freshening, Asmussen has won with two of 23 starters (9%) in claiming races this year. In the second start off the layoff, Asmussen has won with nine of 24 (38%) runners at the claiming level.

Asmussen's decision to bring Violent Storm back 14 days later is another positive, and I love the jockey switch to Ricardo Santana Jr., who will be highly motivated over the final two weeks of the meet, given the four-man battle for leading-jockey honors (with Joe Talamo, David Cohen, and Martin Garcia).

Violent Storm can establish a good, stalking position from his middle post and prove best in the final furlongs.

I will play Violent Storm to win, if he doesn’t get bet down too far from his 4-1 morning-line odds, and single him in a $1 Pick 3 that begins in the second race.

Here are my thoughts on the next two legs.

The third race, a $12,500 maiden claimer, could be ripe for an upset. There is no standout, with a lukewarm, 7-2 morning-line favorite, and a case can be made for more than half of the 12-horse field. I will buy the race, with the "All" button in the middle of the Pick 3

In the fourth race, I will use a trio to complete the sequence — #2 Gold Backed, who overcame a slow start to narrowly prevail last out time and is making his third start off the layoff for trainer Norman McKnight (30% win with the move); #3 Tapitor, who should appreciate a class drop for leading trainer Robertino Diodoro; and #7 Elitch, who drops in class in the second start off the claim for Asmussen.

$1 Pick 3 (races 2-4): 7 with All with 2,3,7 ($36)

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