Pedigree analysis of Bashford Manor runners

When looking at two-year-old races, pedigree can be a helpful tool to analyze prospects with limited past performances.

So to gear up for Saturday night’s Bashford Manor (G3) and Debutante S. at Churchill Downs, here are some pedigree notes on the contenders.

We’ll start with the Bashford Manor (in program order):

#1 He's Comin in Hot, the 9-5 favorite, is bred to be speedy. The Texas-bred is by Early Flyer, the 2001 San Vicente (G2) winner, whose leading progeny are winners of restricted stakes. His dam, the Langfuhr mare Shocktime, was a juvenile stakes winner who dominated the 2011 TTA Sales Futurity for fillies. Coincidentally, Shocktime was last next time out in Churchill’s Debutante. The family is thin on black-type. The only other stakes winner under his first four dams is Touchdown Arkansas, victorious in last year's Razorback Futurity.

#2 Patrick Rocks is by Awesome of Course, best known as the sire of 2010 champion two-year-old filly Awesome Feather. The Florida-bred was produced by Grade 3 queen Dewars Rocks, by far the top runner sired by an obscure full brother to Gulch named Big Mukora. Successful in the Lady Fingers on debut (via disqualification), Dewars Rocks later captured a couple of other New York-bred stakes and scored her signature win in the 1 1/8-mile Rare Treat (G3) in 1998. Patrick Rocks has sold twice at auction, more recently bringing $18,000 from trainer John Robb at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic’s Fall Yearlings Sale.

#3 Roman's Chance is by $2.2 million-earner Sun King. Perhaps more remembered for his penchant for Grade 1 placings than his marquee win in the 2005 Pennsylvania Derby (G2), Sun King has been disappointing as a stallion. Dam Dreams on Tap didn’t live up to her pedigree on the track or in the sales ring. The daughter of Tapit fetched a mere $6,000 as an unraced three-year-old at Keeneland November. She broke her maiden for a $10,000 tag at Arlington for Gennadi Dorochenko, who also trains her Raut homebred juvenile colt.

#4 Dothat Dance is eligible to do better with a bit more time. He is by 1996 Preakness (G1) winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) near-misser Louis Quatorze, whose notable offspring include multiple Grade 1 victress Bushfire and Grade 2-winning sire Repent. His dam, the unraced Guess the Dance, is by the obscure Austin Powers -- a Sadler’s Wells stallion whose only win came over hurdles for Jonathan Sheppard. The further family is quite good, descending from the influential matron Lady Be Good.

#5 Shoot Craps can claim to be the best-bred horse in the race. He is the first winner for highly-regarded freshman sire Trappe Shot, a blueblood son of Tapit who earned his biggest victory in the 2011 True North. Trappe Shot was a nose away from a Grade 1 coup in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt. Shoot Craps was produced by the Gone West mare Goldeni, from the extended family of international stars Raven’s Pass and Rainbow View. While the maternal half is more turf-oriented, the female line has also yielded such dirt performers as multiple Grade 2 hero E Dubai. Shoot Craps initially sold for $47,000 as a Keeneland November weanling. As an April 25 foal, he was entitled to cut a better figure later, and he duly commanded $110,000 as a September yearling back at Keeneland.

#6 Justanothermorgan is by Zavata, a prominent juvenile of 2002 with wins in the Saratoga Special and Tremont. After siring little of note, other than 2010 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Dakota Phone, he was exported to Saudi Arabia in 2013. His dam, the winning High Yield mare Bond Beauty, comes from the family of brilliant sprinters Soviet Problem and Unzip Me. The Indiana-bred was gaveled down for a scant $3,200 as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October.

#7 Sapphire Storm is by Primal Storm, a stakes winner at two in the 2004 Flash (G3) but a marginal stallion with only 69 named foals from six crops. He is out of the Woodman mare Bluehue, and his second dam, Dark Sapphire, was an undistinguished daughter of Danehill. Further on the page, one can find plenty of black type, including Intensive Command, Around the Cape, Oprah Winney, and South African champions Icona and Dancer's Daughter.

#8 Show Bound is the most expensive auction purchase in the race, having brought $170,000 at Keeneland September. He is from the second crop of Warrior's Reward, the 2010 Carter H. (G1) winner who has gotten off the mark fast with such first-crop representatives as Tencendur, runner-up in both the Wood Memorial (G1) and Ohio Derby. Produced by the unraced Hennessy mare Spanish Cat, Show Bound has a rather uninspiring immediate family, with the exception of Canadian champion two-year-old Rare Friends. Reminiscent of Shoot Craps (who beat him last time on turf), Show Bound is an April foal who substantially improved on his $30,000 purchase price as a Keeneland November weanling. 

Photo: Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer