Pick 4 of the Week: Churchill Downs Saturday

The last of the three Pick 4 wagers offered at Churchill Downs on opening day comprises the final four races on the slate, including the feature, the Roxelana S.

Race 7 Wagers:

50-cent Pick 4: 2,4,6 with all with 2,8 with 3 ($30)

Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight

The 1 1/4-mile tilt for fillies and mares on the dirt lacks a standout, although Kenny McPeek’s #2 Plaza Cue (5-2) will be quite tough with her best performance. The Sky Mesa filly didn’t handle sloppy going at Keeneland last time, but her two races on the dirt prior to that were very good. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will be up. 

#4 Churning Berni (4-1) was a good second in her first since moving to David Jacobson and is not without a chance on the stretch out from seven furlongs with Irad in the silks. The Bernardini filly should handle the 10 furlongs. #6 Ashes and Diamonds (9-2) showed nice improvement off the layoff when moving to the dirt and having the blinkers removed most recently. The Joe Sharp trainee is worth a chance under Jose Ortiz. 

Race 8 – Claiming 

A 1 1/16-mile turf test for the ladies is the race where I will seek value, with an overflow field of 14 signed on. I do not have a great feel for the race with multiple inconsistent runners set to go postward, and this seems like a great time to utilize the ‘all’ button to survive leg two. 

Race 9 – Roxelana S. 

Mike McCarthy’s stakes victress #2 Sandy Bottom (5-2) is the controlling speed in the six-furlong feature. Four-year-old daughter of Omaha Beach had a nice prep for this when third in the Carousel S. at Oaklawn Park and looms large beneath Joel Rosario. 

#8 Mink’s Palace (4-1) is a course specialist with a fine draw on the outside of the field. If the top pick falters, I expect the Eddie Kenneally trainee to be the one with Luis Saez riding. 

Race 10 – Maiden Claiming

Closing leg is a $100,000 maiden claiming heat for three-year-olds. Greg Foley’s #3 Evan On Earth (7-5) finished second on the surface in the final two races of his 2024 season and is the one to beat to close out the card. The Congrats gelding is quick, he drew well, and the four-year-old also gets Irad in the stirrups. He will be the single to wrap up the wager. 

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