Pick 5 Carryover at Fair Grounds: Dec. 1, 2022

The Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds will be juiced with a $10,577 carryover from Sunday. The Pick 6 likewise with $1,371. Churchill’s meet is over, Del Mar and Tampa Bay are off Thursday, so a good chunk of those bettors will likely shift their bankrolls down south to New Orleans. Let’s try to make a play for their cash in the lid-lifter.

50 cent Pick 5 = $72

Race 4: Dirt, 6 furlongs, Clm 5000N3X, 3-year-olds & up

Want to buy a $310,000 horse for five grand? #1 India Ink (5-2) is your one. Jose Camejo rarely drops a new horse to his barn in class — only 10 times over the past five years, and he only won once doing that. I doubt the plan was to throw a $5,000 price tag around his neck the first time after switching him to a new barn. Let’s fade this likely single for many tickets.

#3 Rooster Run (3-1) is consistent and has won at this distance. #4 Max Pandowdy (6-1) comes out for John Hirdes, whose horses run a new top 41% of the time when going from a route to sprint. #5 Da Gold Room (3-1) will be Patricia West’s shot at going 4-for-4 this meet. He won a third race but was DQ’d. Live barn.

Race 5: Dirt, 6 furlongs, OC 20k/N2X, 3-year-old & up statebred fillies

#3 G’s Squeeze (9-5) had a tough trip last out so throw that one to the side, and what you have is one big runner who fires huge fresh. #4 Rue Lala (3-1) ran three strong races in a row to end the Fair Gorunds meet. Camejo turned him out and now brings him back to finish what he started against this division. Works have been looking great, and he should be in good position up close to the frontrunner, Beleout.

Race 6: Dirt, 6 furlongs, Alw 52000N3L, 3-year-old & up statebreds

Wow, what a field. Feels like a few here are ready to pop into stakes company. #2 Fiery Playboy (8-1) got shut off on the rail before the turn last out. Expect more here. In the middle of a big late move, #3 Home Visit (5-1) got cut off turning for home by Blue Cheese last out. Dangerous. I want to fade #4 Blue Cheese (3-1), but Corey Lanerie will work out a great trip for him, and there is certainly speed to close into. Throw out that wide effort where #7 Forty Three (7-2) ran from the back last out. This fella has a scintillating first-turn move that has translated to two wins at this distance, one of them at Fair Grounds.

Race 7: Dirt, 1 mile 70 yards, Md Sp Wt 50k, 2-year-old fillies

#7 Mo Bills (7-2) — Michael Stidham does great work with two-year-olds making their third start and horses going from turf to dirt. In both categories, they run a new top figure more often than not. I will single here instead of spreading into the deep waters of this blinkers-on, high-profile connections field, which I expect many will do. Or they will single Brad Cox.

Race 8: Dirt, 6 furlongs, Clm 20000N2L, 3-year-old & up statebreds

#1 Woods N Water (7-2) had trouble in his last but still came running late. Lee Thomas wins at a 22% rate third off the layoff. #3 Ole Stud Muffin (12-1) ran a new top last out and then rested for this one. Herman Ladner gets the "Biscuit" up; could be live. #4 Helaire (4-1) beat a weak field last out, but Patrick Mouton was the key to his turnaround, and this runner has been loved by the bettors, maybe for good reason. #5 Two B (6-1) could easily get the lead in this — outside position and early jets. Last race was against horses in top form, and he lost a photo for place. #7 Easy Runner (3-1) and #9 Mr Elvin (8-1) both have trip trouble totally missed in the notes. Both have run Thoro-Graph figures that can win this.