Pick 5 Play for Fair Grounds Thursday, Jan. 5: Strategic Opinion

Having a strategic opinion can be reason enough to play a Pick 5. An example of a strategic opinion is singling in a spot where other players psychologically have a hard time singling, i.e. the first and last legs.

I have a single in the opening leg with #3 Lightning Struck (9-2), who will likely go off as the bettor’s third choice. Strategically, this frees up my bankroll to spread in other legs where I like the favorites but also have trip excuses for some lively prices. Another way of attacking this if you don’t like Lightning Stuck as much as I do would be to use a few others in that leg and drop off the favorites in Race 5 (3,6) and Race 8 (6,9).

50-cent Pick 5 = $50

Race 4: Dirt, 6 furlongs, Clm 30000B, 4-year-olds and up

Tom Amoss and Eduardo Rodriguez have two runners in here. Alebrije is back at Fair Grounds. Each of those could win, but give me #3 Lightning Struck (9-2) all day. Steve Asmussen’s runner looked legit last time pressing outside and taking over in the turn. He’s stepping up in class, but the Thoro-Graph pattern projects he’s got a 30% chance of running a new top.

Race 5: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles, Clm 5000B, 4-year-olds and up

#3 Counter Offer (5-2) has shown consistent form, and a repeat effort here puts him in contention. Blinkers on and a drop in class, so it is reasonable to expect an improvement. #5 Sermononthemount (6-1) had a tough start taking hits from both sides out of the gate then ran way wide on a day the rail was the place to be. #6 Overthought (5-2) ran well at this level, winning two back, then moved up in class and got a reality check. James Graham getting back up is a good sign. #8 The Gray Blur (6-1) won when stretching out last time. John Hirdes keeps him at this distance and if he can maintain form similar to that of Hirdes runner Max Pandowdy on Sunday running his second route after a sprint, then he could beat these. #9 Mishko (12-1) makes his first start for Sarah Delany but his third start in the form cycle. Live longshot.

Race 6: Dirt, 6 furlongs, OC 20k/N2X, 4-year-old and up statebreds

Really nice combination of works for #2 G’wildcat (8-1) since being claimed by Keith Bourgeois. The Thoro-Graph pattern suggests he’s sitting on a new top, and the price will be right. #3 Scarlettsblackjack (5-2) lost to Prizeless last out, possibly the hottest horse at Delta, and Mexican Wonder Boy, who won a nice race at Saratoga last summer. He tried to rate behind some serious speed and threw in the towel. He will be on the lead today and should be tough to catch.

Race 7: Turf, about 1 1/8 miles, Md Sp Wt 50k, 3-year-olds

Stonestreet's #3 Willakenzie (5-2), out of the two-year-old debut and Golden Rod S. winner Road to Victory, worked sharp coming into this. He should have the precocity and definitely has the connections to win at first asking going long on the turf. The full sibling to graded-stakes winner Magical Feeling, #5 Fortune (4-1) gets back to business on the turf after facing Michael Stidham’s stand-out colt Phileas Fogg, who ran huge. Two races back, he had a tough trip and should be rounding into form second off the layoff.

Race 8: Dirt, 1 mile 70 yards, Alw 51000N1X, 4-year-old and up statebreds

Admittedly, I’ve been chasing #3 Scoring Drive (15-1), but hear me out. Two turns on the dirt makes sense pedigree-wise, and seeing the form cycle, which began in April of 2022, the third start is where he makes that big step forward, which he’d need to do to win this. Blame the recent wide trips and wet tracks, and #5 Runninginthemoney (8-1) makes sense. As I overheard Graham tell the railbirds the other day, “If I’m up, then the horse can win.” Tough start for #6 Tambourine Star (9-2) last out, and then he had to chase down the loose rail speedster Gold Punch on a rail/speed favoring day. Questionable ride by Colby Hernandez last time on #8 Sunday Breeze (5-1) who broke sharp and got stuck wide. When asked late, this runner showed a lot trying to chase down a loose leader on a speed-favoring day. Now seeing that bullet work, I wouldn’t argue with you about singling that one. But there are just too many good excuses for other prices in here to ignore, as with #9 Duvee (7-2), who got pressured into sprinter-esque fractions last out. Looks like he’ll be able to set moderate fractions in here, and that could make the difference.