Player Quick Pick: Saratoga Late Pick Four for 8/21/14
August 21st, 2014
Travers week rolls on with Thursday's 10-race card. We've got a couple of big fields in the late Pick Four sequence, some with very live longshots who could shake up that wager. Here's how I'll play it.
RACE #7: We start off with a two-turn dirt route for older maidens. I'm going three-deep here, using both of the early favorites and a 15-1 shot that could conceivably take a major step forward.
#1 Dragonberry (6/5) and #7 Guilty Verdict (2-1) are both extremely logical. However, don't sleep on #3 Por Que Te Sueno (15-1). Eric Guillot's firsters rarely win, and this Medaglia d'Oro filly is bred to love going long. She probably needed her debut, and her work tab since then hasn't been bad.
RACE #8: We go to the grass for the second leg, a $25,000 claimer for older fillies and mares. I'm going three-deep again, using #5 Bargaining Table (12-1), #7 First Whippoorwill (9/5), and #9 Dance With Gio (5-1).
On smaller tickets, First Whippoorwill might be seen as a single. Her last effort off a long layoff was a second-place finish at the $40,000 level, and she catches a weaker field today. Her best effort wins this, and the presence of white-hot Irad Ortiz, Jr., doesn't hurt, either.
RACE #9: Our third leg is a turf sprint, and this drew a very classy field. This seemed pretty wide-open to me, and as such, I'm going four-deep, using #1 Neck of the Moon (5-1), #4 White Sangria (3-1), #7 Hot Squeeze (6-1), and #8 Subtle (4-1).
I couldn't separate these horses by much, but Subtle wound up being my top pick. She didn't have a great set-up last out, when she broke from the outside and lost to a stakes-caliber horse in Quay. She's 3-for-5 at Saratoga, Jason Servis is excellent with turf sprinters, and she may be a decent price thanks to her last race.
RACE #10: The payoff leg is a maiden claimer on turf. A full field will go 1 1/8 miles on the inner, and I'll go three-deep, using #1 Quarla (5/2), #8 Beauty Surprise (3-1), and #11 More Everything (8-1).
It's puzzling to see Quarla back after she just ran on Sunday. She didn't do much running that day in her first start since June, and Chad Brown drops her down in class. This is probably where she belongs, and if she's ready to go, I think she wins.
This ticket costs $54. Again, though, with the big fields and the potential for a few longshots along the way, it could prove to be a very sound investment. Good luck!
RACE #7: We start off with a two-turn dirt route for older maidens. I'm going three-deep here, using both of the early favorites and a 15-1 shot that could conceivably take a major step forward.
#1 Dragonberry (6/5) and #7 Guilty Verdict (2-1) are both extremely logical. However, don't sleep on #3 Por Que Te Sueno (15-1). Eric Guillot's firsters rarely win, and this Medaglia d'Oro filly is bred to love going long. She probably needed her debut, and her work tab since then hasn't been bad.
RACE #8: We go to the grass for the second leg, a $25,000 claimer for older fillies and mares. I'm going three-deep again, using #5 Bargaining Table (12-1), #7 First Whippoorwill (9/5), and #9 Dance With Gio (5-1).
On smaller tickets, First Whippoorwill might be seen as a single. Her last effort off a long layoff was a second-place finish at the $40,000 level, and she catches a weaker field today. Her best effort wins this, and the presence of white-hot Irad Ortiz, Jr., doesn't hurt, either.
RACE #9: Our third leg is a turf sprint, and this drew a very classy field. This seemed pretty wide-open to me, and as such, I'm going four-deep, using #1 Neck of the Moon (5-1), #4 White Sangria (3-1), #7 Hot Squeeze (6-1), and #8 Subtle (4-1).
I couldn't separate these horses by much, but Subtle wound up being my top pick. She didn't have a great set-up last out, when she broke from the outside and lost to a stakes-caliber horse in Quay. She's 3-for-5 at Saratoga, Jason Servis is excellent with turf sprinters, and she may be a decent price thanks to her last race.
RACE #10: The payoff leg is a maiden claimer on turf. A full field will go 1 1/8 miles on the inner, and I'll go three-deep, using #1 Quarla (5/2), #8 Beauty Surprise (3-1), and #11 More Everything (8-1).
It's puzzling to see Quarla back after she just ran on Sunday. She didn't do much running that day in her first start since June, and Chad Brown drops her down in class. This is probably where she belongs, and if she's ready to go, I think she wins.
This ticket costs $54. Again, though, with the big fields and the potential for a few longshots along the way, it could prove to be a very sound investment. Good luck!
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