Playing longshots in the Kentucky Derby, Oaks future wagers

Seven weeks out from postponed editions of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1), bettors will have an opportunity to lock in appealing prices on their favorite contenders through a pair of future wager pools.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 2 are open for betting Friday through Sunday. All the big names are listed — Tiz the Law, Honor A. P., Gamine, Swiss Skydiver, etc. — but a lot can change between now and September, so accepting a short price on a popular runner is a risky proposition.

I’m more interested in betting longshots who have the potential to start at shorter prices seven weeks from now.

I’ve singled out one appealing price play from each pool.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6

#9 King Guillermo (30-1)

It’s easy to forget about King Guillermo, since he hasn’t run since May 2, but this son of Uncle Mo was among the best 3-year-olds in training during the winter and spring.

After he used his tactical speed to dominate the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) by 4 3/4 lengths, with an excellent 102 Brisnet Speed rating, King Guillermo performed admirably when he battled to a runner-up effort in a division of the Arkansas Derby (G1).

The winner of the Arkansas Derby heat was the undefeated Nadal, arguably the Kentucky Derby favorite until an injury sent him to the sideline, so King Guillermo’s gallant runner-up effort has to be viewed in a positive light.

He isn’t expected to run again before the Kentucky Derby, so take a close look at King Guillermo’s past performances and ask yourself a simple question — is this the record of a 30-1 longshot? My thinking is, no. Assuming he makes the Derby starting gate, I expect King Guillermo to start at 20-1 or less, so betting him at 30-1 seven weeks out offers some appeal.

Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 2

#9 Harvey’s Lil Goil (20-1)

If you draw a line through Harvey’s Lil Goil’s no-show effort in the Fantasy (G3), the form of this Bill Mott-trained filly is very encouraging.

Some handicappers might view Harvey’s Lil Goil as a turf horse, because of her pace-tracking victory in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) over the Churchill Downs grass course last month. But Harvey’s Lil Goil handled dirt just fine when she dominated the 1 1/8-mile Busanda S. at Aqueduct during the winter, when she unleashed a powerful move on the far turn to draw away and win by 7 1/2 lengths, with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

The form of the Busanda has held up well. Runner-up Water White came right back to win the Busher Invitational S. before she placed third in the Acorn (G1). The Aug. 15 Alabama (G1) has been mentioned as a possible target for Harvey’s Lil Goil, and if she rebounds to her Busanda form, you can bet she won’t be 20-1 on Kentucky Oaks Day.

Good luck!