Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Monday, July 15, 2024

Dick Powell outlines his selections for Monday’s card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: (2) BLAME THE WARRIOR – rallied nicely for third in her career debut here going two turns. This daughter of Warrior’s Reward draws inside and picks up Pablo Morales, who wins 16% of the time with his route mounts.

2nd: (4) MAC’S CAT– one-dimensional closer woke up two starts ago, going six furlongs when he passed eight horses. He came back with a wide-trip second, going six furlongs and now stretches out to two turns.

3rd: (5) EMMA AT THE GATE – improved last out when blinkers were added and now tries two turns.

Race Two:

1st: (5) INSCRUTABLE – has yet to win on synthetic tracks but she has plenty of back class on turf. She ships in from Woodbine off a good turf win two starts back and is now in Teresa Connelly's barn. Antonio Gallardo picks up the mount, winning 23% while going long. 

2nd: (2) XERCES – went gate to wire two starts back when stretched out to two turns, then came back and held on after setting the pace. Tim Girten wins 19% of his first starts after a win and 25% of the time with Gaddiel Martinez over the last 60 days.  

3rd: (6) MOTITO – moves up in class off two wins against much cheaper company.

Race Three:

1st: (1) GROUNDED – horse for the course was claimed for $25K here two starts back and was a good second when moved up in class and distance. He draws the rail for Scooter Davis, who wins 21% of his third starts off a layoff.

2nd: (3) DR. STEVE – popular dirt horse has been claimed four of his last five starts and has dangerous speed. He draws well for Flint Stites, who wins 28% of his first starts after being beaten as the favorite but is 0-for-13 first start off the claim.

3rd: (4) GOOSE HUNTER – won from off the pace going six furlongs two starts ago, then was a good third against state-breds.

Race Four:

1st: (6) ENJOY THE MUSIC – horse for the course has won 11 times here in only 20 starts. He returned off the layoff to be an even third two starts back, then just missed last out. Matt Kintz wins 24% of his third starts off a layoff and 17% with his sprinters.

2nd: (5) WROTE IN STONE – drops down to a more realistic class level off a tiring fifth against high-class optional claimers. Off that effort, he drops down to where he belongs for John Fennessy, who has won 39% of the time when Walber Alencar has been his jockey over the last 60 days.

3rd: (2) THE CONNECTOR – beat bottom-claimers by a neck two starts back, then tired when used hard from post 10.

Race Five:

1st: (2) PARTY AT THE BEACH – raced evenly going six furlongs in his career debut, then made a middle move before tiring when stretched out to two turns from post 9. He drops down to a more realistic class level and draws much better.

2nd: (5) IMPOSTER SYNDROME – has yet to win here in five tries, but three of them came against better company. He dropped down to this level last out and was an even third for Matt Kintz, who wins 20% with his maiden claimers overall.

3rd: (7) FAST LEARNER – was an even third in his Tapeta debut, then came back with a good second.

Race Six:

1st: (3) STAR TOPPER – had no shot from post 10 going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, then improved with a good third going this distance. This son of Munnings draws well and gets Willie Martinez for his Presque Isle Downs debut.

2nd: (2) ATROCIOUS – raced evenly two times going short here, then stretched out to two turns and missed by a length with a good rally into an even pace. Kevin Rice wins 25% of the time when he adds blinkers and 16% against this maiden level.

3rd: (5) SECRET TREASURE – son of Arrogate does his best running when he sits off the pace and makes one run.

Race Seven:

1st: (1) SAINT GOAR – just missed two starts back in his seasonal debut, then came back with an even fourth against stakes foes. He drops back down to a more realistic class level for Mike Pappada, who wins 28% of his third starts off a layoff.

2nd: (6) CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT – horse for the course had a big winter at Turfway Park with three wins there. After a stop at Gulfstream Park, he shipped here and beat similar competition by a neck in a fast time.

3rd: (4) CERTAIN – beat open allowance foes here last out in a very professional performance and now gets Pablo Morales.

Race Eight:

1st: (7) ECLIPTICALS BEAR – dirt horse makes his Tapeta debut. He beat low-level claimers by 11 lengths at Penn National two starts back, then was an even third there. Martina Rojas rides back. 

2nd: (8) MALTHAEL – won on the dirt, then finished off the board when moved up in class against turf foes. He could not handle the marathon distance last out and drops back down to a more realistic class level. 

3rd: (9) JO JO HANS – began the season with a decent third against this class level, then was off the board when moved up.