Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Monday, July 31, 2023

Dick Powell analyzes the Monday card at Presque Isle Downs and offers his top three picks in every race.

Race 1

1st: (#6) MULSANNE – turf horse tries Tapeta for the first time, but she will have no trouble getting two turns. She finished up last year with a good third on soft turf, then returned off the long layoff and showed little against male competition.

2nd: (#7) UPPITY UP – was soundly beaten in her first two career starts but improved some when blinkers were added for the first time. Daughter of English Channel drops down to bottom maiden claimers for Ron Potts.  

3rd: (#3) SUPER GEUSE – returned to the races with two dull sprint tries, but improved a lot last out going two turns.

Race 2

1st: (#7) CLOSE KNIT – just missed on the Tapeta at Turfway Park, then was beaten 41 lengths in two starts on the dirt in Kentucky. He shipped here and romped in his PID debut for Katy Cheeks who wins 15% with her synthetic-track starters.

2nd: (#6) SAN MARCO CITY – broke his maiden on Tapeta at Turfway Park, then did little on dirt and turf. He shipped here and chased the pace and now drops down in class for Richard Estvanko, who wins 21% with this move.

3rd: (#5) JUST PRAISE – dropped down to this conditioned claiming level and missed by a head in his first start off a short rest.

Race 3

1st: (#2) SUMMERFEST – was an even third in good time two starts back, then added Lasix and won going away as the 7-5 favorite. Tim Girten wins 23% first start off a win and 35% when he rides Pablo Morales.

2nd: (#3) BEAR CREEK – showed high speed and missed by a head in fast time behind the top choice two starts back, then he had to rally wide after breaking poorly. Mark Hoffman wins 20% with his overall claimers and is 3-for-7 with Antonio Gallardo.

3rd: (#4) WOODCHUCK – horse for the course does his best running when up near the lead and gets Addiel Ayala to do it.

Race 4

1st: (#4) ODD GAL – just missed against this class level two starts back despite severe traffic issues, then was shuffled back from an inside post and raced evenly. Martina Rojas gets the ride – 14% with her route rides.

2nd: (#5) MIDNIGHT FROST – returns here off two decent starts at Belterra on the turf against better. It looks like Estvanko found the right spot here, and she gets Morales, who rode her the last time she raced at PID.

3rd: (#7) NORTHERN ALLIANCE – prolific 14-time winning nine-year-old was a good third when dropped to this level last out.

Race 5

1st: (#5) KEEN LOOKIN – showed brief speed in his well-bet career debut on the dirt at Parx Racing, then came back here and raced evenly going two turns. Son of Keen Ice is out of a dam by Street Sense, so distance should not be a problem.

2nd: (#4) R ADMIRAL – still winless after 12 tries, but he does have five seconds and three thirds. Off the layoff, he missed going gate to wire by a neck two starts back, then tired late after surging to the lead in deep stretch.

3rd: (#2) SENSICAL – did nothing in his career debut on turf, but then just missed on the dirt behind a repeat winner.

Race 6

1st: (#5) FLAWLESS BOURBON – raced wide with no impact in his first of the year, but dropped down to bottom claimers and won easily as the even-money favorite. Andrew Ramgeet wins 18% with his route mounts.

2nd: (#7) J BERESFORD TIPTON – beat optional $25K claimers, then did nothing in his next three starts against better than these. Son of Animal Kingdom drops down in class for Potts, who wins 15% with this kind of dropdown.  

3rd: (#8) SPETTACOLI – four of his last five starts were good enough to put him in the mix here, and he gets weight off with Rojas.

Race 7

1st: (#5) PEMAQUID PETE – horse for the course usually uses his speed to best advantage. Eight-time winner went gate to wire last out to win by over seven lengths as the 11-10 favorite and meets the same group for John Fennessy.  

2nd: (#4) STARSHIP EMPIRE – horse for the course was no match for the top choice last out when he broke awkwardly, and the lead was allowed to set a dawdling pace. Scooter Davis wins 27% with his synthetic-track starters.

3rd: (#1) ON THE COUCH – raced evenly two starts back, then dropped down a bit and won going away.

Race 8

1st: (#1) SHE’D RATHER DANCE – just missed going gate to wire two starts back going this distance, then tried two turns and tired badly as the 8-5 favorite. She is back at the right distance, and Marcus Vitali wins 24% going long to short.  

2nd: (#5) SHEER ALICE – has run second in all three starts this year, but is now back to the right distance. Daughter of Kodiac draws well and gets in light with Rojas – 15% with her sprint rides.  

3rd: (#11) JAZZ TIME GIRL – showed high speed two starts back when blinkers were added, then tired late last out.