Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Oct. 4

Race One:

1st: #3 ABBEY’S SNOW WHITE – horse for the course was a sharp winner two starts back here going 5 1/2 furlongs then she rallied for second last out against this class and distance. Nine-year-old mare has plenty of back class and gets Walber Alencar.

2nd: #2 MIDNIGHT PIRATE – drops down in class and distance after winning two in a row going two turns. She’s won five times here for Glenn Wismer, who wins 26% going long to short and is 6-for-10 when he uses Erin Walker.  

3rd: #1 POQUITO ROSE – won here going this distance three starts back then was a good second on the turf at Mountaineer.

 

Race Two:

1st: #8 SHEER ALICE – drops down in class after showing good speed here the last two starts. Three-year-old filly by top sprint sire Kodiac opened a big lead last out so we’ll see if the class drop gets her home.

2nd: #3 CARINA’S WAY – did nothing in her first two career starts then dropped some in class last out and showed good speed to the deep stretch. Tim Hamm wins 25% of third starts off the layoff and 22% with his synthetic-track starters.

3rd: #7 MY GIRL MELLY – was beaten 49 lengths in her first three career starts but improved last out with the drop down.

 

Race Three:

1st: #6 BEACH HOLIDAY – put together three strong races in a row then moved up to allowance company off the claim and was beaten by 10 lengths. Gelded son of Into Mischief did nothing last out so he now drops back to the price he was claimed for.

2nd: #2 CROWLEY’S WAR – very inconsistent gelding by War Front broke his maiden in his sixth try then ran poorly in two starts against allowance foes. He beat similar company last out going six furlongs in good time for Glenn Wismer, who uses Walker again.

3rd: #1 SHAKIN IT UP LARRY – was running well against state-bred company but failed against open company.

 

Race Four:

1st: #6 HOLY TRUTH – after rallying from way back to get second against this class level, he came back to beat them next out with a similar effort. Last out, he missed by a length in a wide trip from post 8. Walber Alencar rides back — 21% with his route mounts.

2nd: #2 ON BASE – had been banging head against allowance foes with little success but dropped all the way down to this level and won going away. He just missed last out when he raced closer to the pace and draws well today.

3rd: #8 NOTACATBUTACARD – was an even third last out going six furlongs seven days ago with Pablo Morales.

 

Race Five:

1st: #2 DECLARED – drops way down in class off some decent stakes efforts. He beat good optional claimers going this distance and crushed the claiming level that makes him eligible for this by over nine lengths.

2nd: #4 A COTSWOLD VILLAGE – horse for the course has a 12-5-5-2 record here and faces much cheaper than he had been facing. Cassondra Weaver wins 48% of first starts after a win and 25% with her route starters.

3rd: #1 DON’T POKE THE CAT – won two in a row then dropped down to this starter allowance level and rallied wide for third.

 

Race Six:

1st: #2 DRIFTWOOD – beat this optional claiming level two starts back when he went gate to wire then he came back and led to the final yards before weakening. He does his best running when he can make the lead so post two should help him.

2nd: #5 HARROW – rallied from just off the pace to win going away two starts back then came back against this optional claiming level and won in very fast time. Tim Hamm wins 23% of first starts after a win and 33% with Ron Allen Jr.

3rd: #4 WHISKEY DOUBLE – Son of Into Mischief makes his Tapeta debut after two turf efforts in Kentucky.

 

Race Seven:

1^st: #4 SHAMMAH – broke his maiden two starts back in fast time then came back and crushed open allowance foes in good time. He has strong cruising speed so he should have no trouble stretching out another 110 yards.

2nd: #7 SIR LANCELOT – romped by over seven lengths in his career debut going six furlongs in fast time on the dirt at Delaware Park. Mike Stidham wins 17% of first starts after a maiden win, and Jose Ortiz is in to ride.

3rd: #3 DAWGMENTALITY – raced evenly in his first two starts here but woke up when he crushed state-bred maidens.

 

Race Eight:

1st: #3 LAKE NAKURU – woke up some when dropped down to this claiming level and he rallied for third despite breaking from post 12. Son of good synthetic sire Animal Kingdom came back with an even third after being bumped around.

2nd: #8 SMOKEY LEE – won two starts back in a game effort then came back against these and was a good second behind the top choice. Three-year-old shows a pattern of improvement that might be enough.

3rd: #10 ALPHA PREDATOR – has been favored in five straight races before failing to overcome post 10 last out. Same here.