Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Oct. 11

Race One:

1st: #3 SLIPPERY WHEN WET – ran well to begin his career going five furlongs then did nothing the next two starts going two turns. He dropped down to this distance and class last out and was a good second. Leland Hayes wins 21% with his synthetic-track starters.

2nd: #6 ASPLUNDER – woke up in his second career start when he rallied from off the pace to get up for second. He moved up in class last out and chased the pace before tiring. Now, he drops back to the right level with Scott Spieth back aboard.

3rd: #2 RIVZONAROLL – makes his Tapeta debut for Larry Rivelli, whose horses always seem to show gate speed.

 

Race Two:

1st: #7 TAPSOLUTION – dropped down to this claiming level in his second start off the claim and went gate to wire twice in a row. He was right there to the deep stretch when moved up to open allowance foes and now drops back down. 

2nd: #4 ADIOS BOBBY – won three races in a row here, including one against this class and distance. He was a good third last out and drops back down for Mike Pappada, who wins 18% going long and 13% when he uses Erin Walker.

3rd: #1 YADI – was a good third two starts back going a mile in very fast time then ran well against better.

 

Race Three:

1st: #4 VILLAGE QUEEN – beat first-level allowance foes going away two starts back as the lukewarm favorite then did nothing when moved up to stakes company. She drops down in class for Ron Potts, who wins 19% with his route mounts.

2nd: #3 TWILA MAE – horse for the course was a good second two starts back against this claiming level then missed by a head when moved up in class. Kevin Rice wins 19% with his overall claimers, and the last 233 of them show a flat-bet profit.

3rd: #1 BABY DRAGON – raced evenly in a fast sprint then was a good third when moved up to this claiming level.

 

Race Four:

1st: #7 CATHMOR – horse for the course just keeps running against this class level and does not get claimed. He won two in a row then was a good second. He came back and missed by a neck last out with a wide rally.

2nd: #5 DECEITFUL ANTHONY – won his Tapeta debut here three starts back then moved up in class and was a good second as the 3-2 favorite. He raced evenly again last out for Mike Pappada, who wins 36% of first starts after being beaten as the favorite.

3rd: #1 DON’T DARE ME – has yet to win here, but he showed good speed last out before tiring and gets Pablo Morales back.

 

Race Five:

1st: #5 MY BOY BLUE – ran well in his Tapeta debut here going a two-turn mile then he came back at this distance against similar claimers and held on by a head after battling every step. Lilli Kurtinecz wins 25% of first starts after a win.

2nd: #7 SAN COSTANTINO – was an even fourth against optional $32K claimers then dropped back to conditioned $20K claimers and won going away. Now, the three-year-old son of Violence drops way down in class for Tim Hamm.

3rd: #10 LEGIO – woke up last out with a career-best effort and could be dangerous if he can run back to it.

 

Race Six:

1st: #7 YOUMUSTBEA WEASLEY – has run well against open company but has excelled against state-breds. He was a good third last out going this distance when he rallied wide from off the pace for Kevin Rice, who wins 19% after losing as the favorite.

2nd: #1 SACHMO – ran well on the turf at Penn National then shipped here and was a good fourth behind the top choice in his Tapeta debut. He draws post one and gets Ron Allen Jr. back aboard — he has a flat-bet profit with his last 135 route mounts.

3rd: #2 PAID THE PREACHER – prepped for this with two decent sprints and now goes back to two turns for Bill Martin.

 

Race Seven:

1st: #7 FLAWLESS BOURBON – has found a home since shipping here in May with an 8-2-3-2 record. He has done his best running going two turns so we can excuse his last sprint effort here when he weakened in the stretch drive.

2nd: #6 STRIKE THE TOP – has been racing evenly against this allowance level so Mike Rogers puts blinkers back on. Son of Medaglia d’Oro should be able to stalk the pace better with Addiel Ayala.  

3rd: #2 ROMP – makes his Tapeta debut after racing on dirt, turf and in steeplechase races the past two years.

 

Race Eight:

1st: #4 MULSANNE – has done all of his racing on turf and is still a maiden after 10 tries, but this is the cheapest class level she has ever raced against. Ricky Hendriks wins 22% with this surface switch and picks up Antonio Gallardo.

2nd: #7 THE X FACTOR – did nothing against better maidens until finally dropping down in class and running second going two turns. Bill Martin wins 19% with his route mounts and 16% with his synthetic-track starters.

3rd: #3 LEMONSANDDIAMONDS – rallied some in her well-bet career debut and now drops down in class while stretching out.