Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Oct. 12
Race One:
1st: #2 LUCKY NINETEEN – dropped down in class and went gate to wire two starts back here. He tired after a demanding half-mile last out and now drops down to bottom claimers for Malvin Roman — flat-bet profit for his 30 synthetic-track starters.
2nd: #7 OSBIN – another that dropped down in class and went gate to wire after opening up a big lead. He busted out of the gate and opened up five lengths going into the turn last out. He drops in class and gets Erin Walker.
3rd: #5 AMERICAN CHAOS – has a chance if the expected speed duel sets up in front of him.
Race Two:
1st: #7 GOLDEN OLDIE – winless in seven starts this year but dropped down to this conditioned claiming level last out and was an even fourth as the 19-10 favorite. Maria Bowersock wins 14% of second starts out of her barn and 12% going short to long.
2nd: #8 AUDRINA’S CITY – drops down in class after being winless in nine starts this year. She’s been running without a late kick going two turns and now faces the cheapest company she has ever faced.
3rd: #2 TEAM HOT LINE – won her Tapeta debut going gate to wire then raced evenly when moved up in class.
Race Three:
1st: #1 RIO ABAJO – beat this state-bred optional claiming level three starts back going this distance then showed good speed the next two starts when stretched out to two turns. Ed Rojas wins 23% of first starts after being beaten as the favorite.
2nd: #5 LIFE DON’T OWE YOU – is winless here in five starts but ran pretty well against this class level. He won on the dirt last out at Mountaineer Park when he sat just off the pace for Ron Potts, who wins 17% of first starts after a win.
3rd: #6 KEYSTONE HANK – rallied from way back to win going away here, and the track has not been kind to speed lately.
Race Four:
1st: #3 AZTEC PRINCESS – woke up second time out when stretched out to two turns and her late rally fell a nose short. She came back as the 3-2 favorite and ran second again in faster time for Tim Hamm, who wins 27% after being beaten as the favorite.
2nd: #4 FREE SHOT– ran well on the dirt at Monmouth Park. Claimed that day by Gerry Bennett, she shipped here and chased the pace going six furlongs. Now, she stretches out to two turns. Ron Allen Jr. shows a flat-bet profit over his last 135 route mounts.
3rd: #7 LA PANDA – has run three straight sprints against maiden claimers and now moves up in class and distance.
Race Five:
1st: #3 BARNEGAT LIGHT – speedy Summer Front gelding goes back and forth between turf and synthetic. After getting caught twice at Saratoga on the turf, he shipped back here and just missed going gate to wire as the 8-5 favorite.
2nd: #6 FRANZ JOSEF – drops down in class looking for relief. He raced evenly going two turns two starts back then lost all chance in a sprint when he hit the gate at the start. Gaddiel Martinez rides back — flat-bet profit with his 140 route mounts this year.
3rd: #1 WEST NEWTON – steeplechase horse ran well on the flat turf two starts back and won going away at Pimlico.
Race Six:
1st: #8 CACTUS KEVIN – raced evenly to be fourth going a two-turn mile when making his career debut. He comes back two weeks later for Ryan Walsh and should improve with a race under his belt.
2nd: #2 WILD GUESS – first-time starter from Christophe Clement, who wins 23% with his debut runners and 27% when they debut at over a mile. Son of Justify (25% debut winners) is the first foal to race out of a mare by Galileo.
3rd: #6 KITTEN AROUND – rallied some in his well-bet career debut going a mile on the turf at Colonial Downs.
Race Seven:
1st: #7 MAGGIE’S BID – beat similar two races in row then was third against stakes foes going six furlongs. Daughter of Quality Road came back and chased the field in the Presque Isle Downs Masters (G2) and now drops back down for Todd Beattie.
2nd: #9 BOO BOO KITTY – went gate to wire to win a stakes race two starts back then chased a Brad Cox speedball from post 10 before tiring. As long as she came out of that race well, she can be tough in here.
3rd: #3 FORGOTTEN PEACE – beat this class level going six furlongs then raced well when stretched out to two turns.
Race Eight:
1st: #9 WAPITI WAY – horse for the course has had to drop down to this claiming level, and he was a good winner going gate to wire in fast time at two turns. He turns back to a sprint and gets Antonio Gallardo.
2nd: #4 K’S LITTLE BILL – 10-year-old horse for the course ran well four starts in a row against this class level then chased the pace when he broke a bit slow from post one. Bill Martin wins 19% with his overall claimers and gets Pablo Morales back.
3rd: #6 SAMURAI ZIP – goes for win No. 23 after running second in his last two starts here against this level.
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