Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Oct. 18

Dick Powell offers his picks and analysis for the Tuesday racing card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: #1 ROGERS GINGER (5-2) – ran well twice in a row so there was no reason to drop him in class. He tired in his next start so he dropped to his lowest level yet and did nothing. Now, he can’t go any lower for Matt Kintz, who wins 23% with his maiden claimers.

2nd: #2 SHEER ALICE (5-2) – speedball could not hang on two starts back after opening up a big lead, then came back against this maiden claiming level and opened up the same lead before getting caught as the 4-5 favorite.  

3rd: #4 SPIRITED DEBATE (7-2) – shows speed every start and tires every start. Small drop in class won’t help enough.

Race Two:

1st: #2 SUN DADDY (7-5) – did nothing against first-level allowance foes going nine furlongs in fast time, then came back and beat $12.5K claimers. He drops to the bottom at the end of the year and draws well with Antonio Gallardo.

2nd: #1 NOTACATBUTACARD (9-5) – has been sprinting but stretched out to two turns at his last start and was run down late after pressing a fast pace. Mark Hoffman wins 18% with his route runners and the son of Discreet Cat draws the rail with Pablo Morales.

3rd: #5 CASTLE KING (6-1) – was an even third two starts back, then drew the rail and chased a slow pace to no avail.

Race Three:

1st: #5 JOSH’S HONOR (5-2) – showed speed in two starts on the dirt to begin his career at Parx Racing, then came here and was a game second as the 7-5 favorite. Mike Rogers wins 24% first start after being beaten as the favorite and gets Scott Spieth.

2nd: #4 WHISKEYMAC (2-1) – was an even fourth in his well-bet career debut, then showed better speed before weakening late at this class and distance. Graham Motion wins 17% on synthetic tracks and this one has been training on one at Fair Hill.  

3rd: #2 PAYNTED WARRIOR (9-2) – first-time starter from Tim Girten, who wins 11% with his debut runners and 23% against this level.

Race Four:

1st: #6 NOT SO EASY (5-1) – has yet to win here in three tries but has significant experience on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park. He made up a lot of ground here the last two starts and now drops way down in class for Tim Girten, who wins 17% with this move.

2nd: #8 GOODTIME ARTIE (9-2) – one-dimensional closer rallied from far back to just miss two starts back against these, then next start got up by a nose. He’ll be far back early again but the track has not been kind to speed lately so his late kick will come in handy.  

3rd: #4 ALPHA PREDATOR (5-2) – drew outside his last two starts so post four represents major relief for him if he runs the same race.

Race Five:

1st: #6 FRAGRANT (5-2) – improved a lot second time out when stretched out to a mile on the dirt at Ellis Park, then was a distant fourth going longer at Churchill Downs against top maidens. She shows a bullet workout for this and adds blinkers.

2nd: #4 SOLIDARITY (8-5) – daughter of Quality Road has made all three career start on turf, so now she drops down in class and distance for her Tapeta debut. Arnaud Delacour wins 40% going from turf to synthetic.

3rd: #3 DETERMINED EMPIRE (7-2) – ran well in her turf debut, then did little in her next two starts on it.  

Race Six:

1st: #1 MERINO WOOL (2-1) – dropped down to bottom claimers and won by over six lengths, then came back and beat them again. Since she wasn’t claimed either time, Ed Rojas moves her up in class. Pablo Morales rides back from the rail.

2nd: #2 CHARLOTTE THE BRIT (7-2) – was a game second against better company going a mile but for some reason her next three starts came in sprints. Ed Rojas wins 25% second start off the claim and 29% going long after two sprints.  

3rd: #4 PATSY’S BIG GIRL (5-1) – went gate to wire against cheaper going two turns, then just missed two starts later.

Race Seven:

1st: #2 BLICHTON (3-1) – horse foe course sports a 58-18-9-9 record here over the years and at the age of 11, he comes in here off two straight wins after being claimed by John Bourke. He moves up in class but either of his last two starts are good enough to win.

2nd: #7 SAINT GOAR (5-2) – dropped down to this optional claiming level here last out and was a good third in a wide trip. Mike Pappada wins 18% with his synthetic-track starters and is 4-10 riding Ron Allen, Jr.

3rd: #4 DON’T POKE THE CAT (9-2) – won two in a row on the dirt at Mountaineer Park, then came here with a third and a second.

Race Eight:

1st: #2 HALF BIRTHDAY (7-2) – after being trounced by better, he dropped down to this level and won going away in a much improved performance. Matt Kintz wins 29% first start after a win and 18% with his overall claimers.

2nd: #8 SONNET (3-1) – daughter of English Channel made her Tapeta debut here last out and beat better by over three lengths. Now, she drops down in class for Tim Hamm, who wins 18% second start off the layoff and picks up Pablo Morales.

3rd: #6 MADE TO HUSTLE (6-1) – speedball tired in each of her last two starts but she drops way down in class here.