Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Oct. 20

Dick Powell offers his picks and analysis for the Thursday racing card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: #5 RUNAWAY STAR – showed speed against state-bred allowance foes Aug. 15, then dropped down to $20K claimers and just missed going gate to wire Aug. 31. He tired last out in the stretch Sept. 21 and drops down in class for Cassondra Weaver.

2nd: #3 UNCAPTURED LYON – went gate to wire in his debut over 14 months ago. Off for a year, he did nothing in a turf sprint Aug. 21 at Monmouth, then lost all chance with a clumsy start on the dirt at the same venue Sept. 18, so it’s back to his favorite surface.

3rd: #1 MARK THE MOOSE – moved up in class off the claim by Shelly Radosevich who wins 13% with this move.

Race Two:

1st: #1 COMMODORE BARRY – sports a solid record here against this state-bred allowance level. He beat open $25K claimers two starts back Sept. 15, then came back and was a good second against these as the 7-10 favorite Sept. 27.  

2nd: #6 SHOOT YOUR CUFFS – was a good second here going a mile in decent time Sept. 20, then came back at this distance and was an even third Sept. 27. He’s had many chances against this level but seems content to pick up his check.   

3rd: #4 BRADITUDE – ran well two starts back Sept. 20, then broke his maiden last out in slower time Oct. 13. Pablo Morales gets the ride.

Race Three:

1st: #7 ANTIGONE – won his PID debut here last out Sept. 26, and six times prior to that on the Tapeta at Woodbine. Scooter Davis wins 34% with his synthetic-track starters and he’s able to get Pablo Morales back aboard.

2nd: #2 NEVERSAYNOLETSGO – one-dimensional closer has been running well on turf and dirt but if you go back to last winter, she ran well on the Tapeta at Turfway Park. The daughter of Include draws well and gets Alex Gonzalez.

3rd: #5 GENEVIEVE’S Z VA – beat this optional claiming level three starts back, then did nothing when moved up in class.

Race Four:

1st: #6 MAKES MO CENTS – after racing on turf and dirt for his first 26 career starts, the six-year-old gelded son of Uncle Mo tries Tapeta. He drops down to bottom-level claimers and picks up Pablo Morales.

2nd: #1 PAPA HONOR – raced without winning this year on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park, then shipped to Mountaineer Park and won two straight turf races against low-level company. Jay Bernardini wins 23% first start after a win.

3rd: #3 FIGHTIN PHIL – dropped down to this level and placed second Sept. 13, then ran poorly in his next two starts.

Race Five:

1st: #5 A REAL HERO – was an even third as the 17-10 favorite two starts back against much better Aug. 9, then came back and won going away by three lengths Sept. 13. She drops down to the bottom for Tim Hamm, who wins 30% with this move.

2nd: #7 ROLLING MO – just missed against these Sept. 12, then came back to win as the 3-2 favorite Sept. 28. She moved way up to allowance ranks last out Oct. 10 and paid the price and now drops back down to where she belongs for Randy Russell.

3rd: #8 IJUSTWANTAHAVEFUN – made her Tapeta debut last out here Sept. 29 and rallied for third at a decent price.

Race Six:

1st: #1 CROWLEY’S WAR – after finishing off the board two straight starts against allowance foes, he dropped down to this claiming level and won by a neck going six furlongs in good time Sept. 21. Gelded son of War Front was an even fourth last out Oct. 4 for Glenn Wismer.

2nd: #2 STRANGE ARRANGE – speedball went gate to wire three starts back July 27, then got caught when moved up in class off the claim Aug. 24. He ran about the same race last out Sept. 15 for Matt Kintz, who wins 18% with his overall claimers and 26% second start out of his barn.

3rd: #4 BEACH HOLIDAY – was no match for allowance foes Sept. 19 but dropped down in class and just missed in a long sprint Oct. 4.

Race Seven:

1st: #7 BIZ BIZ BUZZ – was mostly a turf horse until his last start here Sept. 12 when he was a good third against this allowance level going this distance in fast time. Mike Trombetta wins 24% with his synthetic-track starters and gets Pablo Morales.   

2nd: #9 STRAIGHTOUTADUTTON – speedball breaking from the outside might be fast enough to get over going into the turn. He had a nice easy breeze here last week for this and is always a danger to take these all the way.

3rd: #1 RESIST THE DEVIL – one-dimensional closer might get the right setup here from the rail with Addiel Ayala.  

Race Eight:

1st: #1 FINE FABRIC – first-time starter from Ed Graham who wins 12% with his maiden special weight starters. By Hard Spun (10% debut winners), she is out of a dam by Storm Cat (17% debut winners) that has produced four winners.  

2nd: #4 SHE’S REDNECKER – raced evenly in her first three starts here but showed good speed from the rail last out Oct. 3. Her dam has produced four winners from four other foals to race and Scott Spieth rides back.

3rd: #7 DETERMINED CHARM – all five of her career starts came on turf but she improved a lot going five furlongs with Lasix Sept. 18.