Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023

Dick Powell offers his selections and analysis for Thursday's card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: (6) MULSANNE – still a maiden after 14 tries but she has seven placings and three here in three starts. Going this distance against this maiden claiming level, she was second in her last two starts and should be able to graduate against these.  

2nd: (2) KAGERO – woke up last out and missed by a nose with a wide trip going six furlongs in good time. She stretches out to two turns for John Fennessy, who wins 10% going long off two sprints and 12% with his maiden claimers. 

3rd: (1) SWIGERT – ran on Tapeta over the winter at Turfway Park and then has been on the turf against better in Indiana. 

Race Two:

1st: (2) YARDMAN – was a good second going two turns and then came back and went gate to wire. She turned back to a sprint last out and now drops down in class from an inside post. Huber Villa-Gomez rides back. 

2nd: (5) GAMBLING MAN – made his Tapeta debut here two starts back against this conditioned claiming level and was an even third. He rallied from off the pace last out to miss by two lengths and fits with these on paper. 

3rd: (7) PIZZA CHARLIE – went gate to wire to break his maiden by 11 lengths at Prairie Meadows. 

Race Three:

1st: (3) ALEMAN – broke his maiden here second time out going this distance in decent time as the odds-on favorite. He came back against similar conditioned claimers to miss by a neck in fast time for Ed Rojas, who wins 26% going long.   

2nd: (2) MISCHIEF WARRIOR – broke his maiden here going gate to wire by over six lengths in his second Tapeta start. He came back with two decent efforts on the turf at Penn National. Brandon Kulp wins 31% first start after being beaten as the favorite.     

3rd: (5) SAM STORMY – made his Tapeta debut last out and was a distant third behind the top choice. 

Race Four:

1st: (4) I STRONG – still a maiden after 14 tries but he has eight placings in twelve starts here. He was a decent second last out after making a strong middle move going this distance in fast time.  

2nd: (6) LARRY’S LUNCHBOX – first-time starter from Larry Rivelli, who wins 19% with his debut runners and 28% against this maiden level. This son of Mastery is out of a dam by Arch whose only foal to race is a two-year-old stakes winner. 

3rd: (8) BANG A RANG – first-time starter from Tim Hamm, who wins 14% with his debut runners and 20% against this maiden level.

Race Five:

1st: (7) PATH TO VICTORY – broke her maiden by eight lengths and then came back and was a close second against cheap claimers. She moved way up in class last out and was a good third despite being stuck behind a glacial pace. 

2nd: (3) MO NIGHEAN DONN – inconsistent mare broke her maiden by 13 lengths on the dirt and then was beaten 76 lengths in her next two starts. She held on for second in her PID debut two starts back, but tired last out when moved up in class.  

3rd: (5) SHE’S A KEEPER – speedy filly has been running well on the turf going two turns at Belterra. 

Race Six:

1st: (4) HALF BIRTHDAY – horse for the course just missed two starts back here and then came back as the 3-5 favorite but missed the start and lost by less than two lengths. Matt Kintz wins 22% first start after being beaten as the favorite.  

2nd: (6) BATH AND TENNIS – horse for the course won two in a row here in August and then missed by a length behind a repeat winner. She weakened last out behind a fast pace for Joan Amaya, who wins 28% with her sprint starters.  

3rd: (3) GOLDEN SUN DROPS – won her Tapeta debut here last out back in June and could sit a good trip here. 

Race Seven:

1st: (5) FORGOTTEN PEACE – seven-year-old mare has won nine times here. She had three good starts to begin the meet and now comes back off a 99-day race. She has shown many times that she runs best when fresh.  

2nd: (1) BABY NO WORRIES – was third in a Grade 3 stakes race on the Tapeta at Woodbine. She has been turf sprinting in two of her last three starts and now meets much lower company. Tim Girten wins 28% second start off the layoff. 

3rd: (3) GENEVIEVE’S Z VA – horse for the course has won nine times here going long and short. 

Race Eight:

1st: (5) EXPRESS PHAROAH – ran poorly in a sprint when making his Tapeta debut. He just missed going two turns against this level then came back and was second again. Maria Bowersock wins 22% first start after being beaten as the favorite.    

2nd: (8) MOUNTAIN TREE – has had three starts here and finished third all three times. He has not been bet and is 20-1 on the M/L and could get a piece of this. Dylan Clarke wins 19% on synthetic tracks.   

3rd: (3) LEAVE ‘EM LOADED – beat this class level two starts back going gate to wire but did little last out.

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