Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Thursday, October 3, 2024

Dick Powell analyzes Thursday’s card at Presque Isle Downs and offers his selections.

Race 1

1st: (4) MIDNIGHT IN PRAGUE – ran well here in her PID debut last year, then came back and did nothing. Off for 11 months, she raced evenly in two starts last month and now drops back down in class for Neil Morris, who wins 21% in this spot. 

2nd: (6) ROCK TUNE – made her Tapeta debut here two starts back and was an even third in fast time. She came back and showed good speed again for Mike Rogers, who wins 23% third start off the layoff. 

3rd: (1) HOPE SHE COMES – winless in 15 starts here but has six placings. She could get lucky up the rail in the stretch. 

Race 2

1st: (1) BUSK – first-time starter from John Bourke, who wins 7% with his debut runners. By Candy Ride (12% debut winners), he is out of a stakes-placed dam by Indian Charlie (16% debut winners) who has produced three winners, including a stakes winner.  

2nd: (2) R CHELLO – ran well to begin his career earlier this year, then ran poorly when he battled for the lead and tired. He might have bled that day since he came back with Lasix and ran much better last out. 

3rd: (3) NOT RIGHT NOW – first-time starter from Tim Hamm, who wins 13% with his debut runners. 

Race 3

1st: (3) FORGOTTEN PEACE – horse for the course has won 13 times here against top company. She has won all four starts this year and can sit off the pace and pounce in the stretch. Tim Girten wins 23% first start after a win.   

2nd: (2) HOPESNDREAMS – speedy filly tries Tapeta for the first time. She won a turf sprint three starts back at Monmouth Park, but then tired at Saratoga going two turns. Back to a sprint, she held on for third and could be tough to catch in here. 

3rd: (5) CAVALIER CUPID – daughter of Quality Road tries Tapeta for the first time off a 123-day layoff. 

Race 4

1st: (1) THALBERG – beat bottom claimers, then moved up to this level off the claim and won by over five lengths. He was a game second from post 10 and now draws the rail against the same group. 

2nd: (3) RECYCLE – drops down in class after a good second going two turns here. He was an even fourth last out in a long sprint against open allowance foes and drops down to $8,500 claimers for John Fennessy. 

3rd: (8) COMEDIC TIMING – showed nothing on the turf in two starts at Hawthorne but shipped here and won easily against cheaper. 

Race 5

1st: (7) HEAVY POUR – beat state-bred allowance foes and then romped against open company in a long sprint. He returns to state-bred company for Tim Girten, who wins 23% first start after a win and 29% with Antonio Gallardo over the last 60 days.  

2nd: (2) VALENTINE BUG – has two wins and two seconds in four starts against this state-bred optional claiming level. He has won eight times here and should be a stretch factor. 

3rd: (3) KOTYLOS – beat this level, then came back and beat open allowance foes. He gets in light again with Brooke Bays. 

Race 6

1st: (7) DIZZY KITTY – broke his maiden back in July and then ran against much better company. He showed good speed the first two starts and then rallied some from off the pace. Now, he drops down to the class level he should have been at. 

2nd: (4) WORLD FACTOR – was a good third against this class level on the turf at Colonial Downs, then came here and raced evenly against better company in his first start off the claim.  

3rd: (3) EXPRESS STAR – another one who gets much needed class relief after racing against much better. 

Race 7

1st: (2) VOTE NO – broke his maiden here last year in his career debut, then came back and won a lucrative turf stakes race at Kentucky Downs. This year, he comes in here off a poor race there and adds Lasix for the first time. 

2nd: (1) GROUNDED – speedball breaking from the rail has won 10 times in 20 tries here. He won his last two starts going gate to wire for Scooter Davis, who wins 23% first start after a win and 27% with his allowance runners.  

3rd: (4) EXTRASEXYBIGDADDEE – just missed against these in fast time two starts back and then raced evenly last out. 

Race 8

1st: (3) YOUMUSTBEA WEASLEY – only 2-for-33 here over the years but has 18 placings and nearly all came against better company. He was a good third last out as the 6-5 favorite in his first start off the claim by Shelly Radosevich.    

2nd: (6) CALL THE BALL – raced evenly going two turns against better, then dropped back to this class and distance and missed by a head after being shuffled back from post 1. Ron Potts wins 21% with his synthetic-track starters. 

3rd: (11) SHOWDOWN KING – has to overcome the wide post, but he should be strong in the stretch off two route races.