Price horses of interest on 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day

With six Thoroughbred Group 1s on tap at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, chances abound of having a few outsiders at least run into the frame on Arc Day.

Here are price horses of interest in the major races – five Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” events plus an historically informative prep for the Mile (G1).  

Prix Marcel Boussac (G1): Race 1, 7:55 a.m. ET

Zarkava’s unbeaten granddaughter #1 Zarigana (3-5) ought to pour more fuel onto the fire of her 2025 classic ambitions. Indeed, this Breeders’ Cup Challenge race for the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) has a very chalky look overall, with Aidan O’Brien’s rebound candidate #3 Bedtime Story (3-1) also in the forefront.

But there is one under-the-radar entrant who just might add some value to otherwise paltry exotics. #7 Lhakpa (20-1) brings a 2-for-2 record into her stakes debut for Yann Barberot. If her Compiegne debut is unremarkable, her front-running display at Deauville last out was more intriguing. 

By Zarigana’s sire Siyouni, who also has Shin Emperor and Mqse de Sevigne in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), Lhakpa sold for about $652,349 as an Arqana August yearling. She is a half-sister to multiple Group 1-placed Beauvatier, a price possibility in the Prix de la Foret (G1) later on the card.

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1): Race 2, 8:30 a.m. ET

This “Win and You’re In” for the Juvenile Turf (G1), and scoring race on the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby, likewise features worthy favorites. #3 Field of Gold (2-1) is preferred to O’Brien’s #7 Henri Matisse (5-2), but #8 Rashabar (9-2) could move up markedly on the step up to about seven furlongs. 

As a son of Holy Roman Emperor and a Camelot mare, who is herself a half-sister to Saturday’s Prix de Royallieu (G1) runner-up River of Stars, Rashabar has arguably overachieved in his six-furlong races. The Brian Meehan pupil broke his maiden as an 80-1 shocker in Royal Ascot’s Coventry (G2) and came right back to finish a terrific second in the Prix Morny (G1). 

Rashabar’s price is already shortening overseas, so I’ll mention another contender likely to remain at higher odds in #2 Misunderstood (8-1). Although the unbeaten colt is cutting back in trip from the Prix des Chenes (G3), he’s a powerful front runner who will make them run him down. 

Prix de l’Abbaye (G1): Race 3, 9:05 a.m. ET

While most of the focus is on whether #9 Bradsell (7-2) can beat #14 Believing (3-1) in a third straight Turf Sprint (G1) “Win and You’re In,” the colt who chased them home at York is overlooked. #4 Starlust (15-1), most recently third to that duo in the Nunthorpe (G1), looks like a massive overlay on the morning line. His odds are somewhat lower abroad, and anywhere in the 8.50-1 or 10-1 range is still value for a sophomore of his profile.

Starlust, also third to Big Evs in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), has thrown in a few disappointing efforts at Newmarket, Ascot, and Goodwood. But he’s been much more consistent on flat tracks like Meydan and York, and I suspect that he’ll find the straight course here very congenial. Note that his dam, Beyond Desire, was a Group 3 winner at this track and trip, but twice an also-ran in the Abbaye. 

I’d flagged #8 Aesop’s Fables (15-1) as one sure to improve off his low-key local prep, but post 15 is a concern. On the other hand, the Ballydoyle veteran was sandbagged by the same draw a year ago, and he still managed to place a close third. He went on to finish third in the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita, and this could be another building block toward that end. 

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1): Race 5, 10:20 a.m. ET

My in-depth analysis includes something on everyone in the field in this “Win and You’re In” for the Turf (G1). Most have a plausible case, if some are more persuasive than others. The rub is that it’s difficult to have a degree of confidence in any of them. 

As a longtime fan of #14 Los Angeles (5-1), who once thought he could beat City of Troy at Epsom, I’ll feel very foolish to miss him here. Yet can perhaps the third or fourth-best three-year-old in Europe win an Arc? That same mental block applies to every sophomore in the race, if you rank City of Troy, Calandagan, and Economics as the leading middle-distance players of that demographic. 

For that reason, I keep cycling around to the older horses. #4 Al Riffa (10-1) strikes me as the most logical. Runner-up to last year’s unbeaten Arc champion Ace Impact in the 2023 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (G2), he has developed into the kind of serious operator that trainer Joseph O’Brien has long expected. 

Al Riffa’s 2024 campaign has been designed with the Arc as his goal, so it’s understandable that he just began to warm up over the summer. He turned the corner with a strong second to City of Troy in the Eclipse (G1), followed by a breakout performance in the Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1) in his first try at this about 1 1/2-mile trip. 

Fresher and less exposed than many, Al Riffa is in danger of becoming the “wise guy” horse. But that’s because he has fewer obvious question marks.

In the Arc storylines piece, I’d mentioned #11 Sunway (30-1), the runner-up to Los Angeles in the Irish Derby (G1), as a possible exotics bomb. The David Menuisier pupil is very genuine, although post 15 won’t make it easy. Bettors are already noticing the form tie-in with Los Angeles, and maybe he’s not quite as incendiary a price as he was earlier. 

At this point, perhaps #1 Zarakem (30-1) will end up having the greater payload as a longshot. The Jerome Reynier charge will be running on late for new rider Cristian Demuro, and his second to Auguste Rodin at Royal Ascot implies that he’s up to landing a place. 

Prix de l’Opera (G1): Race 6, 11:05 a.m. ET

Having hoped for big things from #7 Ylang Ylang (7-2) this season, I’m clinging to the idea that she’s rounding back into the form of last fall’s Fillies’ Mile (G1) victory. If so, the Frankel blueblood can book her ticket to the Filly & Mare Turf (G1). 

Her price isn’t as appealing, though, as #5 Sparkling Plenty (5-1), who has every right to thrive back at her best trip. The Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (G1) winner has since finished a strong third to Opera Singer in the Nassau (G1) and a rattling sixth from an impossible position in the Prix Vermeille (G1). The top two from the Vermeille, Bluestocking and Aventure, are in the Arc, so Sparkling Plenty could get a form boost just prior to the Opera.

At three times the price, #8 Start of Day (15-1) has upset potential, if you take literally her close second to Godolphin’s highly-regarded Ombudsman in the course-and-distance Prix du Prince d’Orange (G3). Third-placer Supercooled and the sixth, First Look, give some nifty collateral form with the French colts’ classics. Start of Day, a $624,000 Tattersalls October yearling by Night of Thunder, has quite a ceiling with only five career starts so far.

Prix de la Foret (G1): Race 7, 11:40 a.m. ET

Even though #18 Ramatuelle (7-2) hasn’t raced since her third in the Coronation (G1) at Royal Ascot, the Justify filly has remained uppermost in mind as a Breeders’ Cup Mile threat. Trainer Christopher Head reports that she’s in grand shape, so hopefully we’ll see her come through this tune-up and arrive spot-on at Del Mar. 

But in keeping with our theme of casting around for potential price plays, there’s no shortage of options. Unfortunately, the most sensible ones are drawn wide, including #3 Tribalist (6-1); #7 Big Rock (10-1), who might have his head screwed back on straight now; #8 Beauvatier (20-1), the half-brother to aforementioned Boussac longshot Lhakpa; and defending champion #14 Kelina (20-1). They’ve landed in posts 12-15, respectively.

#5 King Gold (50-1) offers the combination of a gigantic price and a low draw. Although he was fifth here a year ago, the Nicolas Caullery veteran is a four-time winner over this course and distance. He’s captured the past two editions of the Prix de la Porte Maillot (G3), toppling Kelina in the June 20 renewal. 

Good luck on Arc Day!