Racing Roundtable: Arthur's Ride takes the Whitney plus other Grade 1 action

This week, the Racing Roundtable evaluates the performance of Arthur's Ride in the Whitney (G1), the other Grade 1 action from the weekend, and what else caught their eye in racing.

Is Arthur's Ride now the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)?

James Scully: He’s peaking at the right time for Bill Mott, dominating the Whitney on the front end at Saratoga, but Arthur’s Ride got clear early over a muddy track in the Whitney and still has more to prove. His Brisnet Speed ratings command respect, netting a 106 number for a 12 3/4-length win over conditioned allowance foes at 1 1/4 miles two starts back and a 107 for his 2 1/4-length decision in the Whitney. 

While Arthur’s Ride’s main competition failed to fire Saturday, his upward trajectory (convincing winner in four of his last five starts) is easy to appreciate in an older male division that lacks depth and proven performers at the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic distance. The 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sept. 2 will provide a better gauge on Arthur’s Ride.

Vance Hanson: He looks like it to me. The Whitney has been the most significant harbinger of future success in the Classic in recent years, and Arthur's Ride looked like a horse capable of following in the steps of recent winners such as White Abarrio and Knicks Go. Unlike some the horses that had been pegged as division leaders earlier this season, like National Treasure and Senor Buscador, Arthur's Ride looks like a true mile-and-a-quarter type horse.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup at the end of the Saratoga meet figures to have one of its most significant renewals in years. Arthur's Ride is expected to go there and he'll be joined Kingsbarns, Tapit Trice, and perhaps Next. Whoever wins might wind up the early Classic favorite as the three-year-old class still lacks a standout.

Ashley Anderson: While Arthur's Ride impressed in his stakes debut with a 2 1/4-length victory in the Whitney (G1), I still want to see another start against stakes company before I say he's the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 

The four-year-old improved his record to 7-4-2-0 and clocked a 107 Brisnet Speed figure in his Whitney win, one point higher than when he dominated by 12 3/4 lengths at the Classic distance of a 1 1/4 miles in an allowance optional claimer at Saratoga two back. 

However, in the Classic he may go up against early speed types in Fierceness and Dornoch and may not have his way like he did in the Whitney over a muddy track. Post-time favorite National Treasure failed to get the early lead in the Whitney and has performed poorly on off tracks, but at Del Mar, where it's highly likely we'll see the Classic run over a fast track, it may be more difficult for Arthur's Ride to get out front early. 

I will reserve judgment on his Breeders' Cup chances until I see how he does against Kingsbarns and other tough rivals in Arthur's Ride's next potential start, the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup.

What were your takeaways from the other Grade 1 action?

JS: Adare Manor overcame a tough trip to win the Clement Hirsch (G1) going away by nearly three lengths, and she looks poised to offer a better showing in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) this fall. Last year, the dark bay mare reeled off five straight wins, including four graded events, but she was beating up on soft competition and never threatened in the Distaff, finishing seventh.

Her form has improved at age five, shipping to Oaklawn Park to record a convincing win in the Apple Blossom (G1) two starts previously. On Saturday, Adare Manor easily handled the up-and-coming Scylla, who was exiting a pair of fine wins in the Fleur de Lis (G2) and Shawnee (G3) at Churchill Downs. Her Brisnet Speed ratings have improved, as Adare Manor netted a career-high 105 figure in the Hirsch, and she's a more serious horse in 2024. 

VH: Adare Manor ultimately performed like a 3-5 favorite should in the Clement Hirsch after looking in danger when Scylla appeared to be going very well on a loose lead at the top of the stretch. 

It's hard to argue Adare Manor isn't posting another stellar season as far as wins, but I still retain a touch of skepticism about her vis-a-vis the leading East Coast mares. Scylla isn't quite a great yardstick of comparison, and last year's three-year-old filly champion Pretty Mischievous has not trained on and perhaps would be more effective around one turn these days. Adare Manor's record over nine furlongs, the distance of the Breeders' Cup Distaff, is also a mixed bag as she's only come out on top in the Santa Margarita (G2) twice, at odds of 3-10 and 1-20.

Ways and Means was an effective winner of the Test, and trainer Chad Brown is doing right by her now by aiming for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), a race he won the last two years with dual champion Goodnight Olive. We might not get a good gauge on how she stacks up with some of the better older sprinters before the Breeders' Cup as I don't see many of them running again between the Ballerina (G1) and Del Mar, but I suspect Ways and Means would likely give a race like the Gallant Bloom H. (G2) at Aqueduct a whirl for her final prep.

AA: Neither outcome was much of a surprise, with both Adare Manor and Ways and Means scoring victories as the post-time favorite in their respective starts. What came as a surprise was the trip of Adare Manor in the Clement Hirsch, where there was not a ton of speed signed on. 

I anticipated Adare Manor having her way from start to finish, but instead she had to overcome traffic and at one point sat back in fifth before she reeled in the leader midstretch and won going away by 2 3/4 lengths. She recorded a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed rating in the effort and now owns a 3-for-4 record in 2024, with her lone loss coming in her season debut when beaten to second by three-quarters of a length in the Beholder Mile (G1).

The Clement Hirsch earned Adare Manor a berth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where she will go up against last year's winner Idiomatic and possibly three-year-old sensation Thorpedo Anna. Adare Manor has looked better and better with each start this season and will be a solid contender at the Breeders' Cup in Del Mar, where she's won her last two starts at the track.

As for Ways and Means, shorter distances have proved to be her strong suit. The Test (G1) was hardly a challenge for the Chad Brown pupil, who beat four rivals by 2 1/4 lengths Saturday. Brown said he'll point her toward the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), a race he has won three times, including the last two editions with Goodnight Olive.

What else caught your eye?

JS: Next went through the motions winning Sunday’s 1 3/4-mile Birdstone S. by 22 1/4 lengths. While Doug Cowans initially planned to keep his charge at longer distances this season, the gelding has become too good for the dirt marathon division. There’s no point disrespecting him in a race like 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx on Sept. 21 – why would any rivals bother to show up for a possible 20-length beatdown? – and the Jockey Cub Gold Cup now seems inevitable.

Cowans has been hesitant to cut back because the six-year-old hasn’t fared well at shorter distances in his career, but those races were a long time ago. Next stretched out to marathon distances at the end of 2022, and he’s taken his game to a different level in 2024.

Next generated a 109 Brisnet Speed rating for a brilliant 9 1/4-length victory in the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2) in early July. And the Brooklyn provided a gauge on Next’s progress this season, as he faced Crupi instead of the grossly overmatched rivals we witnessed in the Birdstone and Isaac Murphy Marathon in early May.

A fast-charging second to Arthur’s Ride in the Whitney, Crupi captured the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) during the Belmont at the Saratoga meet in early June, but he proved no match for Next in the Brooklyn four weeks later, running his race for second. Crupi is one of the few older horses in the United States proven at the Breeders’ Cup Classic trip, and he probably wants no part of Next at any distance.

Next is not the first classy gelding to improve significantly after his first few seasons on the track, and he will be a major player in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

I’ll also mention Ferocious, who broke last of eight from the rail and had to wait behind a rival after rushing forward following the slow start at Saratoga on Saturday. The two-year-old colt lost ground entering the far turn and appeared in trouble turning for home, but Ferocious found another gear after straightening into the stretch, quickly overhauling the clear pacesetter and driving to win by a widening 7 3/4-length margin. The six-furlong maiden came over a muddy track, and it reminded me of Fierceness winning by 11 lengths over a muddy track in his career debut at Saratoga last summer. 

Ferocious received a 99 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the top two-year-old number so far this meet. With stamina influences on both sides of his pedigree, the Gustav Delgado-trained son of Flatter has plenty going for him.

VH: Although the late defection of rival Rosallion did not make it as strong a test as it could of have been, it was nice to see Notable Speech bounce back strongly last Wednesday in the Sussex (G1) at Goodwood. 

The 2000 Guineas (G1) winner turned in a puzzling non-effort in the St James's Palace (G1) at Royal Ascot, won by Rosallion, but his performance at Goodwood looked very much like his one at Newmarket. 

The Sussex was a Breeders' Cup Challenge race for the Mile (G1), but Godolphin is so loaded with viable contenders for that race among horses they've kept stabled in the U.S. this summer (e.g. Master of the Seas, Ottoman Fleet, Naval Power) that they might not need him to come. If he does, however, he might wind up being the horse they all have to beat.

AA: Four-year-old Highway Robber notched his first stakes win Sunday in the Turf Cup Preview at Ellis Park under Jareth Loveberry, who found out that day he would pick up the mount. Highway Robber was cross-entered in a stakes Saturday and was listed as the 7-2 second choice on the morning line, but trainer Brian Lynch opted for Sunday's 1 1/4-mile Turf Cup, where Highway Robber was installed as a 12-1 longshot on the morning line. Bet down to 4-1 at post time, the gelding rallied late to prevail by a length over post-time favorite Siege of Boston and stablemate Anglophile, who came home third. 

Highway Robber secured entry to the Turf Cup (G2) at Kentucky Downs next month with his win, which earned a career-best 99 Brisnet Speed figure and a 119 Brisnet Class rating. Should he succeed again in September, he'll receive automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) but would go up against the top turf horses in Europe plus Charlie Appleby's contingent, many of whom have been racing at Saratoga over the spring and summer.