Racing Roundtable: Jim Dandy recap, The Chosen Vron's Breeders' Cup chances, and more

This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses Fierceness' bounce-back win in the Jim Dandy (G2), The Chosen Vron's chances in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) at Del Mar, and what else caught their eye from the weekend.

What are your takeaways from the Jim Dandy?

Vance Hanson: It was no surprise to see Fierceness and Sierra Leone display their superiority as they were the two classiest colts going in. However, anyone looking for the three-year-old championship picture to clarify was disappointed.

While Fierceness earned a much-needed win to get back into that race, his connections' reservations at committing to next month's Travers, and a showdown with division pro team leader Dornoch, suggests it's either not much of a priority to them or that it's not worth the risk, given his in-and-out form pattern. I suppose if it is indeed true the colt needs a large swath of time between starts to be at his most effective, it makes more sense to put all their eggs in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) basket, rather than the Travers.

Sierra Leone ran a solid race and should find the extra furlong of the Travers even more to his liking, but he's now lost three in a row, including two as the post-time favorite. He needs to start winning again, and can't entirely depend on the grace of the electorate no matter how many times he might actually finish ahead of Dornoch in head-to-head meetings.

Ashley Anderson: Fierceness maintained his win-loss pattern with a one-length triumph over Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy but this time, the City of Light colt had to battle in the stretch — something he had yet to do in his previous victories, in which he had won easily by a combined 31 lengths. 

While the Travers (G1) is not entirely off the table, trainer Todd Pletcher noted that connections had not previously considered Fierceness for the Aug. 24 event because of the amount of time between the Jim Dandy and Saratoga's Midsummer Derby. Fierceness was returning off a nearly three-month layoff in the Jim Dandy, his first start since finishing 15th as the favorite in the May 4 Kentucky Derby (G1). The three-year-old would have less than a month to turn around and race in the Travers and considering his pattern of turning in letdown performances following huge wins, I would shy away from him as a bettor in the Travers. However, his determined stretch run did suggest the colt is maturing with age, and he may finally display some consistency in the latter half of the season.

Another concern was Sierra Leone posting a third straight loss, and second consecutive defeat as the post-time favorite. The $2.3 million yearling purchase dropped back to last of six to start the Jim Dandy and remained far back until he made a move in the stretch but was too late, finishing a length behind Fierceness. He recorded a 117 Late Pace rating but has now settled for minor awards in his last three and may be vulnerable in the Travers, even without Fierceness in the mix. 

Is The Chosen Vron the horse to beat in this year's Breeders' Cup Sprint?

VH: He's far and away the California circuit's leading representative, but the division out west lacks much in the way of depth, and it's also worth pointing out a home-court advantage did him little good last year when finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Sprint. There are currently no eastern talents on par with the likes of Elite Power and Gunite, but someone younger with bubbling talent could certainly emerge in the coming months.

Win machines like The Chosen Vron are undoubtedly neat horses, but sometimes they don't get battle-tested nearly enough, and we've seen those kinds fall short at miserly odds in the Breeders' Cup. A notable example of that was Lost in the Fog in the 2005 Sprint, who really didn't venture out of the age-restricted ranks until the big day and was ultimately overwhelmed.

AA: Yes, especially after Skelly's runner-up effort to Nakatomi in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga, where the Steve Asmussen trainee once again showed a tendency to come up short when away from the confines of Oaklawn Park. With his title defense of the 2023 Bing Crosby, The Chosen Vron earned his sixth straight win dating back to the Cary Grant S. at Del Mar in November of 2023. His most recent loss came in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita two weeks prior to the Cary Grant, but this year the Breeders' Cup is back in Del Mar, a track that The Chosen Vron's trainer, Eric Kruljac, said his horse prefers.

The Chosen Vron has now won four straight at Del Mar. His three losses from seven starts at the track occurred in July 2021, when he was a three-year-old, and the following season in August, when the son of Vronksky was returning from a long layoff in the California Dreamin' S. He then lost his next start when third in the 2022 Pat O'Brien (G2) before building an eight-win streak that ended at the Breeders' Cup.

Elite Power, the 2022 and 2023 champion sprinter, beat The Chosen Vron to fifth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last year, but the competition should be lighter in 2024. Although, interestingly, the winner of the Vanderbilt on Saturday finished more than three lengths ahead of The Chosen Vron in that same Breeders' Cup event. But Nakatomi has been inconsistent and was riding a four-loss streak before beating five rivals at Saratoga on Saturday to earn his first graded stakes victory. He'll need a lot more to go his way to win the Sprint, and right now no runner looks like a stronger contender than The Chosen Vron.

What else caught your eye?

VH: The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot on Saturday proved to be another humbling experience for Auguste Rodin, who during the course of his career has won some of the biggest races in the world but has also run some poor ones, too. I felt going in that he was worth fading at the odds, but coming up with the 25-1 French-trained gelding Goliath required some clever handicapping, especially after his recent loss in a seemingly modest renewal of the Hardwicke (G2). In all honesty, though, I would have been more surprised if some of Goliath's shorter-priced rivals, like Bluestocking and Sunway, had won the King George instead.

I'm not sure if this race will ultimately have any Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) implications. Auguste Rodin was already being thought of as a Japan Cup (G1) contender rather than a candidate to defend his Breeders' Cup title at Del Mar. Goliath, however, should probably consider it. Being a gelding, he's ineligible for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), so it would make some sense for his connections to at least give it some thought. This same yard has another talented gelding, King Edward VII (G2) winner Calandagan, who should be treated in the same manner.

AA: A pair of four-year-olds in contention for the male turf title improved their win streaks to three over the weekend. The first is Johannes, a Tim Yakteen trainee who scored a 2 1/2-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Eddie Read (G2). The win handed the Nyquist colt his third straight graded stakes victory following his Grade 1 success in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita. Johannes matched a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed figure in his latest effort and is 6-for-7 overall on the turf. He may be a candidate for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) in addition to Silver Knott, who also notched a third straight graded stakes victory over the weekend with a 2 1/2-length conquest in the Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga. The Charlie Appleby pupil recorded a career-high 107 Brisnet Speed figure while going gate to wire and also set a new course record (2:11.03) for the 1 3/8-mile event. Silver Knott is now a millionaire, with $1,010,771 in earnings from a 15-6-2-0 career line. He's one of several runners from Appleby's barn who shipped to the U.S. for the spring and summer and will likely next race in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), as his stablemate, Measured Time, is pointed toward the Sword Dancer (G1), a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" challenge series event on the Travers undercard.