Racing Roundtable: Lecomte look ahead, plus Oaks prep previews for Jan. 18

This week, the Racing Roundtable dives into the upcoming Road to the Kentucky Derby prep, the Lecomte S. (G3), along with two Kentucky Oaks prep races — the Silverbulletday S. and the Busanda S. They also discuss performances that caught their eye from the past weekend.

Who do you like in the Lecomte?

James Scully: I will take a shot with #3 Admiral Dennis, who lost all chance when stumbling badly out of the gate in the Dec. 21 Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. That mishap completely changed the complexion of the race, enabling Built to have everything his own way on a false pace, but Admiral Dennis was the odds-on favorite for good reason, running faster than Built and other rivals in his career debut.

A well-built son of Constitution, Admiral Dennis trained forwardly prior to his debut last September but wasn’t sharp enough to handle a sprint distance, finishing a close third at 6 1/2 furlongs. He progressed while stretching out to a mile the second time out, registering a strong 91 Brisnet Speed rating while breaking his maiden convincingly, and I won’t count the Gun Runner against him. Joel Rosario picks up the mount for Brad Cox, and Admiral Dennis appears well-drawn in post 3 for a stalk-and-pounce trip.

Vance Hanson: A vast majority of the Lecomte field has been exposed in some shape or form that bothers me. One of the few that hasn't, and who figures to offer somewhat generous odds, is Maximum Promise. The connections, trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, of course won last year's Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, and this son of Maximum Security appeared quite progressive last summer at Ellis Park. He responded well to the addition of blinkers in his second start and strolled to a 14 1/2-length maiden win going a mile while earning a competitive 87 Brisnet speed rating. 

Now, the layoff of more than five months is a huge concern, as is the fact he'll be facing a field more than twice as large as his last start. However, I can envision him getting a decent pocket trip a la Mystik Dan, and if he's good enough, being in the mix at a respectable price. He surely remains with a lot of upside.

Ashley Anderson: In a rematch of the Gun Runner S., winner Built will re-oppose runner-up Magnitude, who came home second by 6 3/4 lengths, and Admiral Dennis, the post-time favorite for Brad Cox who faded to finish a 16-length fourth in the 1 1/16-mile event. Running back to the same distance on Saturday, Built will likely go favored and likes to race on or near the early lead but must overcome an outside post. I will look to beat him and prefer the chances of Admiral Dennis' stablemate Disco Time, an unbeaten Not This Time colt who won by 3 1/2 lengths last out in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill on Nov. 30 and makes his stakes debut for Cox, who's winning at a 30% clip at Fair Grounds this meet. Regular rider Florent Geroux, a 32% winner at Fair Grounds, will retain the mount, and Disco Time has been working sharply ahead of his third career start. The Juddmonte homebred has the speed to go for the early lead but can also win from off the pace. He also has the pedigree to handle what is likely to be sloppy conditions at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

I'll play Disco Time in an exacta with #7 Calling Card, a late closer who may benefit from the bevy of speed signed on. The Michael McCarthy trainee broke his maiden at third asking in his first start on dirt and forged clear to a 17-length victory racing a mile at Aqueduct. Last out, he finished a seven-length third to Sandman in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn but may improve with new rider Frankie Dettori in his third main-track start. Magnitude is also one to consider for Steve Asmussen. His pedigree is built for the mud, and he's eligible to improve third start off the layoff with high-percentage jockey Jose Ortiz aboard.

What are your thoughts on the Busanda and Silverbulletday?

JS: The Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds drew eight and the pace scenario appears uncertain, but I will stick with impressive maiden winner #2 Golden Gamble, who came up short when rallying for second as the favorite in the Dec. 21 Untapable S. Trained by Kenny McPeek, the Laoban filly was caught behind a glacial pace (six furlongs in 1:13.95) and figures to benefit from her initial stakes experience. The price will be better on Golden Gamble this time around.

The Busanda at Aqueduct may seem like an odd destination for #6 Ruth following an odds-on debut win at Gulfstream Park in mid-December, but the 1 1/8-mile distance was probably the deciding factor. The Todd Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo filly took a while to find her best stride going a mile against maiden special weight rivals, getting up in deep stretch to prevail, and Ruth has some pace to set up her late kick in the Busanda.

VH: I wouldn't be surprised if Juddmonte had a good afternoon in Saturday's Kentucky Oaks preps. Chasten perhaps might get a bit overbet in the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds, given her connections and despite having won at first asking at Churchill Downs in a not especially fast time. However, Chasten comes from an outstanding family and is herself a half-sister to Idiomatic, who is the likely favorite to win her second Eclipse Award this coming week as Champion Older Dirt Female. There's no guarantee Chasten will live up to the family legacy, which also includes notables like champion Close Hatches and her son Tacitus, but it would be a surprise if she didn't make some name for herself.

Juddmonte's representative in the Busanda at Aqueduct is another second-time starter, Ramify, who rallied from more than a dozen lengths off the pace to take her debut by a half-length going a mile in early December. By Munnings, she descends from seven-time Grade 1 Sightseek, and against this field I don't see her as having any serious issue about getting 1 1/8 miles or being competitive.

AA: It's no surprise to see Brad Cox with entrees in both Kentucky Oaks prep races on Saturday. In the Busanda, #1 Sharp Smile will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles after breaking her maiden in her third career start racing a mile on a sloppy Aqueduct track. Rain is in the forecast in New York again, and Sharp Smile has already proven capable of navigating an off track. She also drew the rail post, which is winning at a 29% clip, and posted a bullet work on Jan. 4 ahead of her stakes debut. Manny Franco will retain the mount on the Practical Joke filly, but I do question if the distance is a bit long for Sharp Smile's pedigree. I'm more intrigued by the lightly raced fillies in the field — #3 Ramify for Chad Brown and #6 Ruth for Todd Pletcher. Both are late closers who broke their maiden first start out while racing a mile. Ramify earned a 78 BRIS figure when rallying late to get up for a half-length victory on Dec. 8 at Aqueduct, and Ruth clocked an 80 BRIS figure when beating a slightly larger field in a 1 1/4-length triumph at Gulfstream. Both Ramify and Ruth are picking up new riders and have been working out sharply.

As for the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds, the eight-horse field is lacking in early speed, which could allow #7 She's a Swede to have her way on the front end if #8 Bless the Broken scratches and connections opt for the Busanda. Brad Cox has a pair of late runners entered, #1 Chasten, who won her first career start at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs and moves up in class today off a 49-day layoff. She'll keep Florent Geroux aboard and will go up against her more experienced stablemate #5 California Sunset, who graduated at second asking in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill before finishing third in the Untapable. The runner-up from that stakes is my top pick here, #2 Golden Gamble. A nine-length winner in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill, the Laoban filly was beaten to third by California Sunset in her debut, then got the better of that rival in the Untapable, finishing second, a length ahead of California Sunset, as the even-money post-time favorite. Trainer Kenny McPeek is a 20% winner with beaten favorites. He also has a recent maiden winner entered in the field, #6 Gowells Delight, who dominated by 5 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds on Dec. 26.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: River Thames, a promising New York-bred sophomore colt by Maclean’s Music, upstaged the debut of Vanderbilt at Gulfstream Saturday, rallying past the odds-on favorite to score stylishly by 4 3/4 lengths. From the immediate female family of Grade 1-winning sprinters Dads Caps and Paulasilverlining, the Pletcher pupil may not be cut out for classic distances this spring, but I liked the turn of foot River Thames displayed in his first start.

Vanderbilt, a $1.1 million yearling purchase by Into Mischief, appears built for more ground than six furlongs and showed good speed after a rough break, advancing to show the way along the backstretch and far turn. The Cox trainee was outgunned in the lane by River Thames, but Vanderbilt ran well to hold second and is eligible to show more at a longer distance next time. 

VH: Todd Pletcher's other first-time starter to win at Gulfstream on Saturday, Grande, perhaps might not be a horse for the Kentucky Derby, given the somewhat belated start to his career. But he looked a promising sort when surging past odds-on favorite Camp Hale to win by 2 1/2 lengths going a mile at an overlaid 9-1. By Curlin, he's out of a mare that was a Grade 3 winner on the turf at two and who has already reared a graded stakes winner in Canada. Grande should continue to get better and seemingly has the pedigree to handle multiple surfaces if need be.

AA: Odds-on favorites came up short in both stakes at Fair Grounds over the weekend, the Bob Wright Memorial and the Gary Palmisano Memorial on Saturday’s card. In the former, UAE Oaks (G3) winner Manama Gold went off as the 0.90-1 favorite in her second start for the barn of Cherie DeVaux and once again disappointed in the U.S. after starting her career 3-for-3 in Dubai. The Star Guitar filly was racing at six furlongs for the second straight start and came home 1 3/4 lengths behind Classy Judy G, who went gate to wire in her stakes debut for Patricia West. The victory scored the Outwork four-year-old her third consecutive win in her fourth lifetime start. Her lone loss came on debut in a turf sprint.

The even bigger surprise came later in the Gary Palmisano Memorial, when Geaux Sugar was outfinished by a head in the six-furlong sprint. In what was supposed to be a rematch of the 1-2 finishers from the Louisiana Champions Day Sprint in December, Geaux Sugar looked destined for success after top rival Jack Hammer scratched from the field. The 0.80-1 post-time favorite, Geaux Sugar set the early pace but was collared in the final sixteenth and just missed to 4.30-1 third choice Not On Herb. It was far back to the third-place finisher, Tdzshininluckystar, who finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Geaux Sugar. The upset landed Not On Herb his fourth stakes tally of his career and improved his overall record to 18-8-1-3. Heading into the race, Geaux Sugar boasted a two-win streak, but it ended by a narrow margin in his 2025 debut.