Racing Roundtable: Louisiana Derby Preview Day

With Louisiana Derby Preview Day at Fair Grounds in the books, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson are back with observations on what transpired in the three-year-old features on Saturday.

Whose stock are you buying out of the Risen Star (G2)?

James Scully: The top three. Epicenter improved upon a runner-up finish in the Jan. 22 Lecomte (G3), running a big race on the front end, and Smile Happy impressed rallying for second. Zandon couldn't sustain his finishing kick in the latter stages, but he ran well for third following a bad start and wide trip. All three are eligible to keep moving forward. Epicenter had everything his own way on the lead, and probably will face different circumstances this spring, but there was still plenty to like about his powerful performance.

Kellie Reilly: Smile Happy's strong finish from an unpromising position, in traffic, reiterated his status as a major contender. But Zandon's third taught us more about him. Flubbing the start, he put himself farther back than he'd ever been early, in a race where it would have helped to be forward. Moreover, the Chad Brown trainee took the overland route into the stretch, covering more ground than Smile Happy, and still finished just a half-length behind him. Had Zandon been able to employ his usual stalking style, he likely poses a greater challenge to Epicenter.

Vance Hanson: Although impressive in victory, Epicenter had everything his own way in the Risen Star. Thus, I wouldn't be buying him at a lower price now. Of the other two that placed, I generally like Smile Happy more than Zandon. However, his closing style does make him trip dependent, and in a potential 20-horse Kentucky Derby (G1) field I'd have worries. Zandon ran extremely well considering he dug himself a hole with a slow start. If he can make corrections in his final prep, his stock is the one I'd expect to appreciate the most.

Are undercard winners Cyberknife and Momentous legitimate Kentucky Derby and/or classic prospects?

JS: Cyberknife has a better chance to make an impact following an outstanding allowance win. Heavily favored in his first three starts, Cyberknife always had the reputation for being a talented type who needed to put things together mentally. He finally did so on Saturday, relaxing perfectly in third before offering his bid into the stretch. The Brad Cox-trained colt won by an easy three lengths, keeping his mind on business through the lane, and he now has something going for him. Momentous could be any kind following an excellent debut maiden win at six furlongs, but Todd Pletcher won't be in a rush with the late-starting colt.

KR: Cyberknife's experience gives him the edge over Momentous, who just won a six-furlong maiden, as far as the Derby trail is concerned. A work in progress for Brad Cox, Cyberknife put it together with a dynamic stalk-and-pounce allowance score, in hand. That prompts the question of how he might have fared in the Risen Star, since the Gun Runner colt could have worked out a similar trip. That said, there was much to like about Momentous' hard-fought verdict over fellow first-time starter Marsalis. Since Marsalis is a full brother to a stakes-winning sprinter, and not nominated to the Triple Crown, Momentous did well to edge him at his own game. Although by Speightstown, Momentous is out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare from the immediate family of Saint Liam and Gun Runner. He's likely to blossom in the summer, unless he develops fast through the compressed schedule for the Triple Crown.

VH: Cyberknife, whose mental maturity has been trying to play catch-up to his talent, looked a more refined product in his allowance win on Saturday. That said, I don't think you can chalk up his lackluster performance in the Lecomte two back entirely to a lack of focus. I'd prefer to take a wait-and-see approach in his next stakes attempt. Momentous, in contrast, strikes me as a very enticing prospect. I like his chances stretching out, though the window of qualifying for either of the first two classics appears rather short at the moment.

Was the Rachel Alexandra (G2) a good prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1)?

JS: Probably not, as it was a slow race. La Crete was pulled up with an injury, and none of the top six betting choices were a serious factor, especially favored Hidden Connection, who gave way readily to fourth after being unopposed on the far turn. Turnerloose made a successful transition to dirt, grinding her way to the front in deep stretch, but she'll need to run faster in future engagements.

KR: The result wouldn't frighten any of the prime players on the Oaks trail – i.e., Echo Zulu, Adare Manor, and Nest – so in that respect, it's not a key prep. I was relieved to see Turnerloose verify my hypothesis that maybe she could act on dirt, but the injury to La Crete cast a cloud over it all. The one to take out of the race was fourth-placer Hidden Connection, who ran like a filly in need of the tightener. A fully fit Hidden Connection stays on better than that, and given her Churchill proficiency, I wouldn't give up on her Oaks hopes yet.

VH: This New Orleans-based grouping of three-year-old fillies, sans Echo Zulu, appears a cut below what we saw last season from the likes of Travel Column and Clairiere, and recall neither of those two hit the board in the Kentucky Oaks. On the plus side, Turnerloose proved she was more than just a turf filly and the Pletcher-trained Goddess of Fire is beginning to show slow but steady improvement. At this stage, however, I'd be wary of their Oaks credentials.