Racing Roundtable: Mawj, Caravel, and other eye-catchers

This week the Roundtable talks about the Breeders' Cup-bound females Mawj and Caravel, as well as who and what else caught their eye last weekend.

Which Breeders' Cup race should Mawj target and how would you rate her chances?

James Scully: With the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) scheduled for 1 1/4 miles at Santa Anita, the Mile (G1) looks like the better target, and Mawj rates as a major win contender. Mawj held by a half-length when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland, a race she figured to need returning from a five-month layoff, but the classy three-year-old filly relishes mile distances, defeating Tahiyra in her previous outing, the English 1,000 Guineas (G1). Mawj is now unbeaten from four starts this season, and her speed may prove to be an asset at Santa Anita.

Vance Hanson: It sounds a tad counterintuitive, but the Mile (G1) against the boys might be shaping up as the better option. There's a strong chance the Mile could be cut up further this week due to the participation of several stars on British Champions Day at Ascot, who might be reluctant to turn around in two weeks to compete in the Breeders' Cup. Among these are Paddington, Inspiral, Kinross, and Chaldean.

The Filly and Mare Turf (G1) is over 1 1/4 miles, a distance Mawj has not yet tried, and it looked like she was getting a touch tired in the nine-furlong race at Keeneland. That was understandable, given the lengthy layoff she was coming off of, but the projected pace scenario over the longer distance might not work out so well for her. There is also the presence of the talented Warm Heart to worry about.

Ashley Anderson: While Mawj won gate to wire on the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles, she nearly got caught at the finish by Lindy and would stand a better chance in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor noted: "It looks to me she has plenty of speed as a miler and she made it today nine furlongs. But we'll see. The Mile might be the best for her, sure, but I want to decide closer to the race." Should Mawj compete in the Mile, she'll potentially face Godolphin stablemate Master of The Seas, who was recently beaten a nose second to Up to the Mark in the Turf Mile S. (G1) at Keeneland. As for the Filly & Mare Turf, I rate QEII runner-up Lindy a potential contender after closing late to nearly catch Mawj at 1 1/8 miles.

Concerns about Caravel after two straight losses?

JS: Caravel delivered a respectable effort in Sunday’s Franklin (G2) at Keeneland, finishing a neck second, and she’s caught off turf in her last two setbacks. But she’s not displaying the same speed from her five-race win streak that spanned from last October to June, rating just off the action in her last three outings, and it’s fair to question whether she’ll be in the same form at Santa Anita.

VH: On the one hand, for the second consecutive race, Caravel caught a turf course with some cut in it, which is not her preferred kind of ground. She'll get conditions more to her liking at Santa Anita. On the other hand, Caravel most certainly wouldn't have asserted her superiority over that field regardless of the conditions six months to a year ago, so I'm leaning toward the proposition that Caravel perhaps has lost a step in the past couple of months. Which is understandable, if true, as she's closing in on seven years of age. At any rate, the time to have her from a betting standpoint was in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1). She's rarely offered value since, and probably won't in a few weeks either.

AA: Beaten a neck by Tony Ann, Caravel failed to defend her win in the Franklin, which she achieved ahead of her 43-1 upset in the Turf Sprint in 2022. Two back, she was a three-length fourth to the boys in the Troy (G3), and she earned a pair of 117 Class Ratings in her two recent losses, down from the 120 Class Rating she scored with her three-quarter-length victory in the Jaipur (G1) against males. Looking at the potential competition in the Turf Sprint, Caravel will have her work cut out for her, but I see a lack of consistency from the five-furlong distance when looking at the records of the other probables. It's unlikely she'll repeat her win in the Turf Sprint, and you certainly won't get anywhere near that 43-1 price to make it worth backing her this time either.

What else caught your eye last week?

JS: After opening his career with a pair of seconds, including the Sapling S. at Monmouth Park, Dornoch broke through with a sharp maiden triumph at Keeneland, leading all the way at 1 1/16 miles. Danny Gargan trains the promising two-year-old colt, a full-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and Dornoch registered a commendable 95 Brisnet Speed rating for the 6 1/4-length decision.

Trainer Charlie Appleby, winner of the last two runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and Turf (G1), appears to be heating up prior to his arrival at Santa Anita. After winning the Canadian International (G1) with Nations Pride a week earlier, Appleby sent out Sycamore (G3) victor Bold Act at Keeneland and Sands Point (G2) winner Eternal Flame at Aqueduct over the weekend. The English-based conditioner also sizzled at Newmarket over the weekend with a trio of stakes winners (Ancient Wisdom, Arabian Coin, and Dance Sequence).

VH: City of Troy lived up to the hype, and more, winning the Dewhurst (G1) at Newmarket on Saturday in emphatic style by 3 1/2 lengths. Connections within the Coolmore camp are referring to the undefeated son of Justify as "our Frankel," while others are pondering whether the colt could potentially be the best horse ever trained by Aidan O'Brien. Extremely high praise, obviously, and quite a high bar and equally high burden to carry into winter quarters. While it remains to be seen whether the Frankel comparisons hold up, at the very least we're staring at a likely odds-on favorite for next spring's 2,000 Guineas (G1), a relatively rare thing for a race more than six months away. We'll see if another serious challenger for the first classic comes to the fore in next April's trials, but I rather doubt it.

AA: Mark Casse pupil My Boy Prince recorded an easy 4 1/4-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Cup and Saucer S. at Woodbine and is now pointed toward the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). The two-year-old son of Cairo Prince earned his third win from five career starts and added his second stakes tally — the other was a 14-length romp in the Simcoe S. at Woodbine in late August. In the Juvenile Turf, My Boy Prince will potentially challenge stablemate Can Group, recent Pilgrim (G1) victor Agate Road, and Summer S. (G1) hero Carson's Run, who beat My Boy Prince by 2 1/4 lengths two back. 

The gray colt also earned his sire his eighth stakes win of the year. Daughter Cairo Consort finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and has won both the Sweetest Chant (G3) and Ginger Brew S. at Gulfstream, while Buy Land and See won the With Anticipation S. at Penn National. While not a stakes winner yet, Cairo Prince filly Cairo Street (out of a Street Sense mare) also broke her maiden at Keeneland last week when racing a mile on the turf.