Racing Roundtable: Sizing up the latest Derby, Oaks prep winners

Following a busy weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) preps, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson assemble with reactions from a big weekend.

Which Derby prep winner do you like more going forward: Morello, Simplification, or Forbidden Kingdom?

James Scully: Forbidden Kingdom, his speed is dangerous. Simplification comfortably won the Fountain of Youth (G2), but the Florida competition is suspect. Morello remained unbeaten romping in the Gotham (G3), but he's yet to race at two turns. Forbidden Kingdom ran his rivals off their feet in the San Felipe (G2), netting an excellent 102 Brisnet Speed rating, and he's the speed of the speed among Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders.

Kellie Reilly: For the Kentucky Derby trail, Simplification, since he has the tactically enviable ability to beat you with his speed or outkick you from off the pace. The Fountain of Youth proved he can win from midpack, after the Holy Bull (G3) showed his competitiveness in adversity. Gotham winner Morello has a likeable stalking style, but I still think that classic distances will stretch him. That same caveat applies to Forbidden Kingdom. Although he was brilliant early in the San Felipe, he faced little opposition from a suspect bunch, and slowed appreciably late. Let's see if Forbidden Kingdom can handle other quality speed, like Messier in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and potentially Classic Causeway and Epicenter at Churchill Downs.

Vance Hanson: All three seem to be of above-average quality, though weaknesses are easy to find. Simplification arguably beat a deeper group, but several of his Fountain of Youth rivals were compromised by relatively poor trips and/or lack of recency. No one in the Gotham, aside from Morello, looks a legitimate Derby candidate, and he still has to prove his two-turn prowess. Forbidden Kingdom has his own potential issues with a seeming one-dimensional way of going, but the San Felipe showed what a fine bit of cruising speed he has and how much progress he's made in being able to carry it over gradually longer distances. After the disappointment of Omaha Beach several years ago, karma might be on Richard Mandella's side.

Do Venti Valentine and Kathleen O. add depth to the Kentucky Oaks lineup?

JS: Yes, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) lacked depth entering the weekend. Venti Valentine could have more to offer after convincingly taking her first start of the season, the Busher S., and Davona Dale (G2) winner Kathleen O. is eligible to carry her formidable late kick to two-turn races. Both fillies add something to the Kentucky Oaks picture.

KR: They do add depth, because both won convincingly in less than ideal circumstances. Venti Valentine missed a couple of works due to a recent illness, but still crushed the Busher. Her only loss came in the Demoiselle (G2), by a neck to Nest, and connections believe she would won if not for a rival's waywardness that cost her momentum. Kathleen O. is a perfect 3-for-3 despite being devoid of early speed. You don't often see horses go last to first at Gulfstream, but that's exactly what Kathleen O. did while dismissing a solid cast in the Davona Dale. It remains to be seen if her deep-closing habit can work as well around two turns, where she's at risk of getting foiled by a slower pace. On the other hand, the Shug McGaughey trainee is eligible to progress, and she could put herself in better position at a routing tempo.

VH: Although neither filly has yet won around two turns, their respective performances on Saturday has made the prospective Kentucky Oaks field a lot more interesting. Venti Valentine's win in the Busher at Aqueduct was especially eye-catching, and keep in mind, too, that she already has positive nine-furlong experience via her neck second to Nest in the Demoiselle in December. Kathleen O. got the pace she needed in the Davona Dale, just like in the Jan. 1 Cash Run S., and it was good thing for Shug McGaughey's stable that she stepped up, given the odds-on flop by Radio Days in the Busher. However, to alleviate concerns she might be best as a late-closing, one-turn horse, I'd prefer to see how Kathleen O. handles two turns in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) before buying any stock.

What else caught your eye this weekend?

JS: A $1.7 million two-year-old purchase, Taiba did not disappoint as the odds-on favorite Saturday, capturing his career debut by a widening 7 1/2-length margin. By last year's superstar freshman sire, Gun Runner, Taiba dueled on the lead before drawing off in the stretch of the six-furlong maiden special weight, and the chestnut colt registered a whopping 100 Brisnet Speed rating. He's a three-year-old to watch.

KR: Stateside, $1.7 million purchase Taiba made a sparkling debut at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert. The 1-2 favorite had to be driven along through a hot pace between foes, but found another gear to draw off by 7 1/2 lengths. The Triple Crown-nominated son of Gun Runner clocked six furlongs in 1:09.97 and notched a 100 Brisnet Speed rating. Of the winners on Dubai's Super Saturday, the one who could plausibly double up on World Cup night is Man of Promise. By spread-eagling the Nad al Sheba Turf Sprint (G3) in fast time, the Charlie Appleby trainee served notice that he'll be a force in the Mar. 26 Al Quoz Sprint (G1).

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VH: The performance of the weekend arguably belonged to Speaker's Corner, who looked pretty spectacular in dominating the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). His final time of 1:33.84 translated into a 106 Brisnet Speed rating, the second highest of his career. While the Metropolitan H. (G1) in June is an obvious goal for him, the relative dearth of mile races means he'll more than likely try and stretch out around two turns again at some point this season. It's unfortunate that a series of top-level, one-turn mile races for older horses has yet to be created in this country, especially since a race like the Metropolitan is prized as a "stallion-making" race. They're commonplace elsewhere around the globe, so why not offer more here besides the Met Mile and the Cigar Mile (G1)? Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Laurel, and Colonial Downs can all accommodate one-turn miles, so a series involving some or all of those tracks might prove popular with horsemen at the tracks and on the farms.