Racing Roundtable: Takeaways from the Holy Bull and more
February 8th, 2022
Following a noteworthy weekend of classic preps, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson are back with observations on the big races, storylines, and events of the past week.
What's your takeaway from the Holy Bull (G3)?
James Scully: White Abarrio flattered the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), which was won convincingly by Smile Happy in late November, and he was fortunate runner-up Simplification (wire-to-wire winner of the Mucho Macho Man) missed the break. White Abarrio made the most of it, scoring by a 4 1/2-length margin, but it was impossible to envision such a perfect trip.
Kellie Reilly: My knee-jerk reaction was wondering how far Simplification wins by if he breaks well. Of course, that's not fair to White Abarrio, who was plenty good enough to engineer an ideal trip for himself, and make the most of it. Moreover, White Abarrio was coming off a better-than-appears third in the Kentucky Jockey Club that's turning out to be a key race. Yet Simplification's missing the start changed the whole tenor of the Holy Bull. The way Simplification regrouped for second, despite being taken totally out of his frontrunning game, reinforced my idea that he's a serious colt. Third-placer Mo Donegal kicked into gear belatedly, as you'd expect for a Remsen (G2) winner cutting back in trip, but he tends to look a bit outpaced on the far turn.
Vance Hanson: As noted, the complexion of the race changed significantly when Simplification missed the break. However, the outcome might have been the same with White Abarrio winning, albeit by a smaller margin as Simplification is presently a more talented and experienced target than Galt. Despite missing a couple works going into the race, White Abarrio toyed with that field late, a sign, as trainer Saffie Joseph suggested post-race, of a quality horse. I still wonder, though, whether White Abarrio will be as effective outside Gulfstream. Time will tell. Mo Donegal didn't need produce his best in this spot and is still one to keep an eye on in the next month or two. Giant Game further exposed the form of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and Tiz the Bomb isn't close to the same horse on dirt as he is on turf.
How does Early Voting stack up so far in the three-year-old class?
JS: He's a promising sort with much to prove. In the Withers (G3), Early Voting looked the part of an up-and-comer in the three-year-old ranks, winning easily by a 4 1/2-length margin, and he's posted convincing victories in both career starts for Chad Brown. However, Early Voting also had everything his own way on the front end, and let's see how he responds when tested.
KR: It was very pleasing to see an exquisitely-bred son of Gun Runner employ his take-no-prisoners style on the front end, but the Withers wasn't the deepest race in the world. The good news is that Early Voting promises to continue progressing, both from a pedigree standpoint, and because of his personal history of getting to trainer Chad Brown's barn later as a juvenile. On the other hand, his lack of seasoning could become a factor as the trail unfolds, especially since the Klaravich Stables colorbearer hasn't had to learn a lot from his two big wins. Note that his connections are not subject to Derby fever, so Early Voting will have to convince them in his next steps.
VH: Early Voting couldn't have enjoyed an easier trip in the Withers, and based on the ease of the win it's safe to say he's the best of a very modest bunch of New York-based three-year-olds. Of course, that's not unusual as the pre-Wood Memorial (G2) grouping of Derby preps, although historic races in their own right, have yet to evolve into meaningful classic indicators. Early Voting has a pedigree to die for, class-wise, but I'm not yet sold on his Kentucky Derby (G1) credentials.
What did we learn about Messier's domination of the Robert B. Lewis (G3)?
JS: He's a serious three-year-old. Messier had much to prove coming into this season, faltering as an odds-on favorite in his lone two-turn start at age two, and the Empire Maker colt looked much-improved in the Lewis. Granted, he was able to lead wire-to-wire over a short group of questionable rivals, but Messier impressed winning by 15 lengths in a fast time (104 Brisnet Speed rating).
KR: Messier's 15-length romp in the Lewis made me go back to my originally bullish view of him at the time of his maiden win – as Bob Baffert's next monster. After a more workmanlike Bob Hope (G3), and his loss in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), where Slow Down Andy beat him fair and square, I regretfully thought Messier wasn't what I hoped. Granted, his Lewis rebound came at the expense of a few lesser opponents, but that impartial arbiter – the clock – underscores its merit, and his 104 Brisnet Speed rating stamps him as a prime contender on the Triple Crown trail. I'd argue that Messier is better than stablemate Corniche, who has yet to work back since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Although Messier can't earn Kentucky Derby points, with Baffert's suspension by Churchill Downs Inc., he could develop into the leader of the crop.
VH: Like the Withers, the Robert B. Lewis suffered from a lack of depth. Nonetheless, Messier's performance was so powerful and authoritative that, if not for known reasons, he'd probably be a clear favorite right now for the Kentucky Derby. However, it's not a bad thing to insist on wanting to see him replicate that effort, preferably against a more competitive group of rivals. He might certainly be coming into his own, but, as Kellie noted, he's underachieved at times at miserly odds. We don't know yet how his Derby eligibility will play out, but suffice it to say the Preakness (G1) could come up mighty interesting this year.
Who's a horse to watch coming out of this weekend?
JS: Express Train, who may be ready to take his game to another level following a 3 1/4-length victory in the San Pasqual (G2). It marked the first time the five-year-old has been able to string together winning efforts in his career, and Express Train looked good doing so, building upon a game triumph over Hot Rod Charlie in the San Antonio S. (G2) in late December.
KR: It was easy to miss amid all the high-flying three-year-old action, between the Derby preps and the imperious filly Adare Manor, but Shirl's Speight is back in business as a five-year-old. The Charles Fipke homebred was once a budding star at three before falling off the radar with a soft-tissue injury. Under the careful nurturing of Roger Attfield – a U.S. and Canadian Hall of Fame trainer – Shirl's Speight has now won two straight on the Tampa Bay Downs turf. Making his first stakes attempt since 2020 in Saturday's Tampa Bay S. (G3), the 9.50-1 chance exploded from five lengths off the pace to dethrone Get Smokin. The 1 1/16-mile affair didn't even set up for a closer, since Get Smokin was on his way to a wire job, and stalkers made up the rest of the superfecta. Shirl's Speight fired a 103 Brisnet Late Pace rating to win going away. It's logical for Shirl's Speight to come into his own at this age. Sire Speightstown and dam Perfect Shirl each won their Breeders' Cup trophies as older horses.
VH: It's rare when bettors overlook a Chad Brown trainee in a graded turf stakes, but that's what happened Saturday when the lightly-raced filly Bleecker Street won her stakes debut in the Endeavour (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs as a 7-1 chance. The Peter Brant-owned daughter of Quality Road had won her three previous starts in low-key style at Monmouth, the Meadowlands, and Tampa, but proved good enough to win Saturday's race going away from odds-on favorite Lady Speightspeare despite being 3 1/2 lengths in the hole with a furlong to go. There's a lot of Grade 2s and Grade 3s up and down the Eastern seaboard the gray could potentially notch this season, and I wouldn't put it past her developing into an even higher-quality filly than that.
