Racing Roundtable: Takeaways from the latest Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps

After a revealing weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) preps contested throughout the south, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson debate the merits of those who came to the fore at Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Turfway.

Which horse from the Florida Derby (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1) do you like most heading to Kentucky?

James Scully: Charge It. His inexperience is a liability — the February maiden winner raced in spots and proved green weaving in and out of the stretch while making his stakes and two-turn debut in the Florida Derby — but Charge It has the best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby of those from last Saturday's races. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt may be raw, but he appears to have a high ceiling. The top two from the Arkansas Derby, Cyberknife and Barber Road, along with Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and third Simplification, all have something going for them, but Charge It is the one I like most.

Kellie Reilly: The Cyberknife who sliced between foes in the Arkansas Derby (G1) is the one I hoped we'd see in the Lecomte (G3), only to have him disappoint in blinkers. His mind had been lagging behind his raw physical ability, but trainer Brad Cox has the Gun Runner colt on the right track now. Judging by his sharp allowance score two starts back on Risen Star Day, my hunch is that Cyberknife isn't that far off the star of the Fair Grounds Road, Epicenter. For the sneaky loser file, don't overlook Simplification coming out of a tough third in the Florida Derby (G1). After dueling Classic Causeway into oblivion and putting away a pestering Pappacap, he had a right to cry enough. Yet he boxed on, beaten only a couple of lengths. If reverting to the patient tactics that won the Fountain of Youth (G2), Simplification can contend in the Derby at a price.

Vance Hanson: White Abarrio would be the logical choice, given his seasoning, speed, and racing style, but I continue to harbor suspicions that he might be a creature of Gulfstream who won't run up to that standard outside his base. Charge It, on the other hand, perhaps could have won the Florida Derby with a little more foundation underneath him, but the relative lack of it was evident inside the final quarter-mile. That is obviously a huge concern going into the Kentucky Derby, too, but the raw talent and potential he possesses might be enough to at least out-finish over the Churchill strip the others we watched compete this weekend.

What do you think of Tiz the Bomb pursuing the Kentucky Derby?

JS: Tiz the Bomb deserves the opportunity following back-to-back stakes wins at Turfway Park. His form is improving, netting a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating for a convincing 2 1/4-length victory in the Jeff Ruby (G3), and his late kick could play well in a potentially speed-laden Kentucky Derby field. Dirt is the big question — Tiz the Bomb didn't run a step finishing seventh in the Holy Bull (G3) earlier this season — but Churchill Downs is a different track from Gulfstream Park. Tiz the Bomb trained forwardly under the Twin Spires when based at Churchill Downs last year, and he belongs in the Kentucky Derby.

KR: Although I'd given up after a demoralizing Holy Bull, it's worth giving Tiz the Bomb his chance in the Kentucky Derby. The late John Asher often pointed out that turf-oriented horses can excel at Churchill Downs. And considering his maiden romp on the Ellis Park dirt, he's not hopeless on the surface in general, so the Holy Bull probably isn't the final word on his aptitude. Kenneth McPeek can always go back to the turf, and even pursue his June 4 Epsom Derby (G1) objective, although that's ambitious too.

VH: Although his win in the Jeff Ruby was one of the performances of the weekend, I'm still suspect about Tiz the Bomb's relative ability on dirt. The Holy Bull perhaps wasn't a true indicator of that ability, but it's arguably a stronger measuring stick than one on a synthetic surface. There's enough anecdotal evidence of turf horses handling Churchill's main track better than any dirt surface in the country to warrant a shot at the Derby, I suppose, but it still wouldn't have been my first choice as an owner. And that also comes with the belief that connections' earlier visions of taking a shot at the 2000 Guineas (G1) or Epsom Derby, while exciting and adventurous, would also have been a significant uphill battle for the colt.

Did Kathleen O. cement her status as the slight favorite in a highly competitive Kentucky Oaks (G1)?

JS: Kathleen O. confirmed herself as a major Kentucky Oaks contender, remaining unbeaten as she stretched out to two turns with a powerful two-length victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), but she probably won't be the post-time favorite on May 6. Unbeaten champion two-year-old filly Echo Zulu or Arkansas Derby (G1) third Secret Oath are more likely candidates for favoritism. Kathleen O. will still be well-supported, and as Hall of Famer and Kentucky Oaks winner Shug McGaughey said after the Gulfstream Oaks, "the long stretch at Churchill Downs, maybe it will be for her."

KR: Kathleen O. is easy to like with her combination of a perfect record and upwardly mobile profile, but Oaks favoritism probably won't be decided until Saturday. She's beaten a couple of Todd Pletcher's understudies, but his leading Oaks filly, Nest, will contest the Ashland (G1). If Adare Manor runs off the screen in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), her bandwagon could fill up, even if she's now with Tim Yakteen and not Bob Baffert. And Echo Zulu will continue to have backers who want to stick with an unbeaten champ, notwithstanding her close shave in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

VH: I think so. Appearing a filly that will appreciate even more ground, as well as the projected pace setup, Kathleen O. sure looked the part of an Oaks favorite with her win at Gulfstream, which multiple speed figure makers (including Brisnet) judged a faster effort than what the boys accomplished in the Florida Derby. There also will be a segment of Kentucky partisans hoping McGaughey can notch the Oaks again after three decades. Secret Oath still figures to command a lot of support in the wagering after not getting the easiest of passages in the Arkansas Derby, and she has a terrific turn of foot that could easily enable her to get the jump on Kathleen O. It's shaping up as a fascinating race.