Racing Roundtable: Tampa Bay Derby and Azeri Stakes

With the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Azeri (G2) highlighting last weekend's action, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson are back with reactions to those races and more.

Where do you place Classic Causeway in the current Kentucky Derby (G1) pecking order?

James Scully: His class and experience can't be dismissed, and Classic Causeway ranks fifth in my Kentucky Derby top 10 following his 2 1/2-length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but I don't like the 90 Brisnet Speed rating he earned. Classic Causeway controlled a moderate pace throughout, and was never asked seriously by Irad Ortiz Jr., but I want to see a faster performance in a projected final prep race.

Kellie Reilly: While he's not at the top of the pecking order overall, Classic Causeway could be the speed horse capable of lasting the longest in the Kentucky Derby (I'm excluding from this discussion Messier, given the ineligibility of Bob Baffert runners). His Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 94 and 98, respectively, in the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis (G3) are stronger than either Forbidden Kingdom (83 in the San Felipe [G2]) or Epicenter (career-best 89 in the Risen Star [G2]). While Forbidden Kingdom and Epicenter continue to look overeager to get on with it, Classic Causeway is learning to modulate his speed. Paradoxically, that's why his lower Brisnet Speed rating for the Tampa Bay Derby (90), on a drying-out track, doesn't bother me as much. From a developmental standpoint, his tractability to throttle down early will serve him better than if he took off as fast as when he recorded a 99 Speed figure in the Davis.

Vance Hanson: Although visually impressive winning his two preps so far this year, Classic Causeway does seem to have taken a path of lesser resistance this winter on his way back to Louisville. From a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, the Tampa Bay Derby was a step backward from the Sam F. Davis, and the fear is that his exploitation of low-hanging fruit perhaps hasn't toughened him up enough. He'll get one more prep in the Blue Grass (G1), and a stronger effort is needed from this perspective to make him a top-three candidate.

Do you see Ce Ce taking another crack at the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1)?

JS: Ce Ce will be given every opportunity to target the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She appears headed to the Apple Blossom H. (G1) on April 23, and if she wins, the following start probably will be at a route. Belmont Park has the one-turn, 1 1/16-mile Ogden Phipps (G1) on the June 11 Belmont Stakes undercard. The six-year-old mare can always cut back in distance, and the next few months should determine her fortitude for a Distaff bid.

KR: Considering her tendency to throw in subpar efforts — just plain moodiness, according to regular rider Victor Espinoza — I'd expect Ce Ce to revert in trip at some point. Perhaps she needs the variety of shortening up, stretching out, and cutting back again. That said, her Breeders' Cup decision might come down to the week itself. Aside from weighing the relative depth of the Distaff versus a title defense in the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), the key factor could be prestige. Winning the Distaff would be a greater résumé enhancement than repeating in the same Breeders' Cup race, and if she's in great form by that point, connections might want to roll the dice. Ce Ce ran a decent fifth in the 2020 Distaff, also at Keeneland, when she hadn't been in good form.

VH: Ce Ce's victory in the Azeri certainly gives her connections options going forward, and if she can maintain that form through the Apple Blossom I could see them continuing to take chances here and there in two-turn races. A lot will depend on the concurrent form of rivals like Letruska and Malathaat, but my gut tells me we're more likely to see her fall back to sprinting come Breeders' Cup time, than see her stretching out to nine furlongs again over the Keeneland strip.

Did anything surprise you over the weekend?

JS: We the People deserves recognition, continuing to impress in an entry-level allowance win at Oaklawn Park Saturday. After winning his career debut going away by 5 3/4 lengths over a two-turn mile last month, the Constitution colt made short work of five rivals at 1 1/16 miles, scoring by a widening five-length margin. It doesn't appear to be the deepest three-year-old crop, and We the People is headed to a major Kentucky Derby qualifier for Rodolphe Brisset.

KR: A bit of unexpected news was seeing high-profile owners Peter Brant and Earle Mack bound for a relief mission to help Ukrainian refugees in Hungary. Not that their humanitarian outreach was a surprise, since both are well-known philanthropists, but I normally wouldn't be aware of their actions in real time. The horror of war puts racing, for all its importance as a global industry, in perspective. 

VH: I was mildly surprised that even-money Shedaresthedevil was virtually a spent force by the time she entered the stretch in the Azeri, and at no point thereafter did she look like she might re-rally. Surprising, that is, for a filly that won the same race last year over a relative monster in Letruska. Given the six-furlong split of 1:12.20 was slower than any she had recorded in prior wire-to-wire victories at the distance, I'm not sure her speed was used to its best effect.