Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: 12 to follow

Saturday’s Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs officially marks the beginning of the 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby. 

If it’s too early to have confident opinions about a two-year-old crop that’s barely emerging, we’ve seen enough promising juveniles to cobble together an initial 12 to follow. Four are included virtually by definition — the top two from the Hopeful (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1) — while a healthy degree of subjectivity filters the rest. 

Chancer McPatrick

Chancer McPatrick overcame adversity to win both of his outings at Saratoga, especially the Sept. 2 Hopeful (G1). If the Chad Brown trainee could rally despite it all to go 2-for-2, what might he do with an advantageous trip?

From the first crop sired by $3.6 million-earner McKinzie, Chancer McPatrick sold for $725,000 as a two-year-old in training at OBS April. His dam, Bernadreamy, is a daughter of 2006 Preakness (G1) champion Bernardini and Grade 1 vixen Dream Empress.

Chancer McPatrick broke well in his July 27 debut but got shuffled back to last early. The Flanagan Racing color-bearer nevertheless launched a circling move to win going away.

In the historic Hopeful, the Spa’s marquee race for juveniles, Chancer McPatrick hit the gate at the start, bumped a rival, and caused jockey Flavien Prat to lose his left stirrup. Somehow both horse and rider were able to recover, and Chancer McPatrick delivered an even stronger closing kick to edge odds-on favorite Ferocious. 

Chancer McPatrick registered a 99 Brisnet Speed figure for his overall effort in the Hopeful and a lofty 110 Late Pace rating for his final flourish. 

Ferocious

Although Ferocious was overturned as the Hopeful favorite, the $1.3 million OBS March purchase has considerable upside. He also has connections in common with 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage, namely trainer Gustavo Delgado and co-owner OGMA Investments.

Ferocious was just that in his Aug. 3 unveiling at the Spa, drawing off in a dazzling 1:09.65 for six furlongs. That effort netted him a 99 Brisnet Speed figure and 102 Late Pace rating. But he made rookie mistakes by breaking slowly, rushing up, and having to be nudged to go on the turn when the leader got away from him.

Another mental error likely cost him in the Hopeful. Losing focus at the top of the stretch, Ferocious was going nowhere until Chancer McPatrick swept onto the scene. That forced Ferocious to re-engage, and he came up a half-length short. 

Ferocious effectively paired up his Brisnet Speed figures by recording a 98 in the Hopeful, suggesting that there’s more to come. His pedigree concurs.

By the blueblood A.P. Indy stallion Flatter, Ferocious is out of a Midnight Lute mare from the deep family of $14.9 million-earner Country Grammer. 

Gaming

Gaming stamped himself as the leading juvenile on the West Coast in Sunday’s Del Mar Futurity (G1), giving trainer Bob Baffert a record-extending 18th win in the seaside feature. His 99 Brisnet Speed rating equals Chancer McPatrick’s from the Hopeful.

Unlike his frontrunning score first time out on Aug. 11, Gaming bided his time behind a fast pace in the Futurity and swept to the lead turning into the stretch. He’d learned from his debut experience, where he raced greenly, to put together a more professional display here. 

Gaming was emulating freshman sire Game Winner, Baffert’s 2018 Del Mar Futurity victor who went on to become champion two-year-old male. Game Winner added the American Pharoah (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and Gaming is expected to take the same path. A $250,000 OBS March purchase by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman, Gaming is out of a mare by transatlantic champion Johannesburg, the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile star.

McKinzie Street

Runner-up to Gaming in the Del Mar Futurity, McKinzie Street might have finished a little closer with a cleaner passage. The son of McKinzie briefly lost position when angling around a tiring longshot, and by that point, Gaming was long gone. McKinzie Street did well to keep chasing down the lane and cross the wire 1 3/4 lengths adrift, good for a 97 Brisnet Speed figure.

The $290,000 OBS April juvenile represents the connections of 2023 Santa Anita Derby (G1) scorer Practical Move. Trained by Tim Yakteen for Leslie Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., and Roger Beasley, McKinzie Street had wired his July 28 debut by 3 1/2 lengths. The beaten favorite that day, Baffert’s Emerald Bay, came back to break his maiden handsomely.

Bullard

The most compelling Del Mar dirt maiden winner who wasn’t in the Futurity, Bullard rolled in last-to-first fashion to foil Baffert hotpot Kalea Bay on Sept. 1. 

Kalea Bay had the advantage of a prior race under his belt, as well as a daylight lead swinging for home. Bullard was making his debut for trainer Michael McCarthy, but you wouldn’t know it by the way he threaded through traffic like a pro. Uncorking a long, sustained rally to overhaul Kalea Bay, Bullard forged 1 1/4 lengths clear. 

The only clue to Bullard’s babyish inexperience was his failure to change leads in the stretch. It didn’t affect his momentum, and he remembered to do so after the wire in a strong gallop-out.

By top sire Gun Runner, Bullard sold for $675,000 as a Keeneland September yearling. His breeder, Three Chimneys, stayed in for a share in the colt, who also races for St. Elias Stable, Talla Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds.

Bullard’s half-sister, the speedy Mundaye Call, set a seven-furlong track record in the 2021 Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park. They are out of the Warrior’s Reward mare Reve d’Amour, a descendant of 1982 Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine and influential broodmare Blush with Pride. 

Rated by Merit 

Vincent Viola’s St. Elias Stable also has an exciting homebred in Rated by Merit. Dominant in both of his starts at Gulfstream Park, the Florida-bred has routed his rivals by a combined margin of 16 lengths.

More tellingly, Rated by Merit racked up a gaudy 101 Speed rating for his conquest of Saturday’s Dr. Fager division of the Florida Sire S. He actually moved forward from the 96 posted in his July 13 premiere for trainer Michael Yates. 

Although Rated by Merit has shown high speed in each six-furlong race, he’s bred to go farther. His sire, Battalion Runner, was the runner-up in the 2017 Wood Memorial (G2) during a brief career that left his true potential untapped. Battalion Runner is himself by Unbridled’s Song and out of a well-related Tapit mare. 

Rated by Merit’s dam is by Speightstown, but she comes from the immediate family of Revolutionary, victor of the 2013 Louisiana Derby (G2) and third-placer in the Kentucky Derby. This is one branch of the prolific female line of *La Troienne.

East Avenue 

Godolphin’s homebred East Avenue could be the latest celebrity from his all-star family, judging by his eight-length waltz on debut at Ellis Park. The Brendan Walsh juvenile set a decent pace but looked particularly smart in the stretch, pulling away to record a 95 Late Pace figure.

East Avenue’s final time of 1:10.56 was significantly faster than the 1:11.80 clocked by Firmus, the winner of an ensuing six-furlong maiden, who is another well-bred youngster to watch. While Firmus is entered in the Iroquois, East Avenue is awaiting the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.

East Avenue is by Medaglia d’Oro and out of the Ghostzapper mare Dance Music, who is a half-sister to reigning Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish. 

Showcase 

After romping by 7 1/2 lengths in his July 6 debut at Aqueduct, Showcase revealed in the Aug. 10 Saratoga Special (G2) that he can brawl like a street fighter. The Todd Pletcher pupil was short of room and stuck down on the inside, but bulled way his way out to impose his authority by 3 1/4 lengths, in hand. The stewards conducted an inquiry into his maneuvering before letting the result stand. 

Harrell Ventures’ Showcase, a $300,000 Keeneland September yearling, is a son of Uncle Mo. That champion and outstanding sire furnished a Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist (2016), in his first crop. Showcase’s dam, Buy Sell Hold, is a full sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile. 

Sandman

A $1.2 million OBS March purchase, Sandman tired to fifth in his Churchill unveiling. But that was all part of his educational process with dual Hall of Famer Mark Casse. Note that the impressive winner of that maiden, Keep It Easy, was well fancied next time in the Saratoga Special, only to lose all chance at the start.

Sandman had a much better experience in his maiden score at the Spa. The step up from six to seven furlongs helped, but so did the additional maturity between June and August. Sandman also benefited from a better trip Aug. 10. Instead of forcing a fast pace, he saved energy in a stalking role and stayed on strongly up the rail to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Innovator, came back to finish a troubled fifth in the Hopeful.

Sandman will try to take another step forward in the Iroquois, where a bunch of promising rivals aim to do the same. Whatever happens on Saturday, Sandman has long-term appeal for co-owners D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables.

By Tapit and out of a Distorted Humor mare, Sandman hails from the family of 2021 Dubai World Cup (G1) hero Mystic Guide. Sandman’s half-sister, Grade 3 vixen She Can’t Sing, excelled at the age of five. 

Dapper Moon 

A Louisiana-bred with Pelican State connections, Dapper Moon has caught the eye twice at Saratoga, and he has two angles intersecting with the Hopeful. 

The Dallas Stewart trainee was a slow-starting second on debut to Incentive Pay. Dapper Moon raced greenly behind horses until he saw daylight and surged late. Incentive Pay came back to finish a better-than-appears third in the Hopeful, and he remains a well-regarded prospect from the Brown barn.

In the meantime, Dapper Moon returned with a devastating maiden victory Aug. 31. The gray colt broke better, put himself in a sensible stalking position, and delivered the coup de grace in a five-length romp. The respective second and third, debuting Guns Loaded and favored Tap Into This (who blew the start), are worth following too. 

By the A.P. Indy stallion Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Derby victor Orb, Dapper Moon went to Valene Farms for $130,000 at OBS April. Valene has another sharp two-year-old with Stewart, Smoken Wicked, who placed third in the Saratoga Special and fourth in the Hopeful. But he has a sprint-oriented pedigree compared to stablemate Dapper Moon.

Uncaged 

The Pletcher-trained Uncaged ran almost a full second slower than Ferocious in his maiden win on the same day, but he warrants an upgrade on the bare time. Based on his late-blooming pedigree, Uncaged must be a serious talent to score at first asking going six furlongs at Saratoga. 

Neither of his parents even raced at two. Uncaged is a son of Hall of Famer Curlin and 2016 Delaware Oaks (G3) scorer Dark Nile, by Pioneerof the Nile (sire of 2015 Triple Crown sweeper American Pharoah). 

Yet Uncaged was already polished enough to work out the best trip. Pouncing from just off the pace, he won comfortably with ears pricked after the wire. Sea Vista and Classicist, a fellow Pletcher trainee by Curlin, were promising in second and third themselves.

Uncaged was sold to Repole Stable for $450,000 as a Keeneland September yearling, with breeder WinStar Farm retaining a share.

Sovereignty

The Travers Day maiden has been known to yield top performers. Yet this year’s edition featured a three-way finish among Pletcher’s Tip Top Thomas, Danny Gargan’s Rookie Card, and Brown’s Keewaydin. They’re all likely to be useful, but how does one separate them at this stage? Nor do they necessarily come across as classic types.

Rather, it’s the late-running fourth, Sovereignty, who offers the most appeal from a Derby trail perspective. A Godolphin homebred for Bill Mott, he motored from last to register a 101 Late Pace rating and strode past the top three on the gallop-out. 

Sovereignty is bred in the purple, as you’d expect. He’s by perennial leading sire Into Mischief, who is responsible for Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Sovereignty’s dam, Crowned, is a daughter of Bernardini and Grade 1 queen Mushka, herself by Empire Maker. Ancestress Lakeway, a four-time Grade 1 winner, is by 1977 Triple Crown legend Seattle Slew and out of an Alydar mare from a rich family.