Santa Rosa: A single for the $1,190 Pick 6 carryover

Rain has caused cancellations and postponements of racing at many East Coast tracks this week. But the action is progressing uninterrupted in California, where Santa Rosa is hosting a Saturday card with a $1,190 Pick 6 carryover up for grabs.

The wager spans Race 3 (post time 5:48 p.m. ET) through Race 8, a sequence containing 49 horses (averaging about 8.2 per race) and 258,720 possible outcomes before scratches.

We can reduce that number a lot (down to 36,960) by singling #1 Tiger Queen (4-5) in Race 4, an $8,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The seven-horse field hasn’t come up especially deep from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and Tiger Queen pretty much towers over her rivals.

Tiger Queen has won three straight races in gate-to-wire fashion. On June 8, she took a $12,500 starter optional claimer over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields by 1 1/4 lengths. On July 6, she nabbed a $16,000 claimer on dirt at Pleasanton by two lengths. She then stuck to dirt for a $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Sacramento, which she dominated by 4 1/2 lengths.

Those efforts yielded improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 77, 81, and 87, approaching Tiger Queen’s career-best 89 rating. She’s actually cracked the 80 plateau in five of her last eight starts, including when smashing a $6,250 claimer at Santa Rosa last year by 4 3/4 lengths.

Those 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings are significant because Tiger Queen’s Saturday rivals have been struggling to reach that milestone. Four of them have failed to earn a number higher than 77. #7 The Great Haynes (6-1) has run as fast as 85, but hasn’t exceeded 78 in her last 10 starts. #3 Stateforest peaked at an 83 when racing one mile on Tapeta in March 2023, but she hasn’t run faster than a 76 in eight starts since then.

In other words, a typical performance from Tiger Queen should be more than sufficient to yield victory under red-hot jockey Alexander Chavez, who has gone 4-for-12 (33%) at Santa Rosa this meet. She’s a compelling single in the second leg of the Pick 6.

Good luck!