Saratoga: Betting a cold exacta in the Test Stakes

When half a dozen 3-year-old fillies head to the Saratoga starting gate for Saturday’s 7-furlong Test (G1), you can bet all eyes will be focused on #5 Gamine.

A brilliant frontrunning daughter of Into Mischief, Gamine has crossed the wire first in all three of her starts for trainer Bob Baffert, but one of her performances stands above the others. On June 20, Gamine obliterated six talented rivals in the 1-mile Acorn (G1) at Belmont Park, where she won by 18 3/4 lengths, in the record-shattering time of 1:32.55.

It was a massive effort on every level. Not only was Gamine fast enough to set quick fractions of :22.48, :45.28, and 1:09.33, she displayed enough stamina to sprint the final quarter-mile in :23.22. Gamine received an excellent 109 Brisnet Speed rating, which stamped her among the early favorites for the Sept. 4 Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Gamine will certainly be an odds-on favorite in the Test. Even if you ignore her resounding victory in the Acorn, Gamine’s form is strong. She won her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita by 6 1/4 lengths, and she showed tenacity to finish a neck ahead of future Ashland (G1) winner Speech in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park. Class, speed, stamina — what’s not to like about Gamine?

Her odds.

There’s not much point in betting Gamine to win if she starts at 1-5 or even 1-2. The return on investment won’t be worth the risk.

And I’m not convinced #6 Venetian Harbor isn’t capable of springing a surprise in the Test.

A speedy daughter of accomplished sprinter Munnings, Venetian Harbor is bred to excel running short and made a powerful impression in her maiden win, when she dominated a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Santa Anita by 10 3/4 lengths.

Since then, Venetian Harbor has run exclusively in two-turn races and has held her own against tough company. After she cruised to victory in the 1-mile Las Virgenes (G2) at Santa Anita, Venetian Harbor hit the road for the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn and 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, where she was clearly second best on both occasions.

With a bevy of triple-digit Brisnet E1 and E2 pace ratings under her belt, Venetian Harbor possesses more raw sprinting speed than Gamine. The cut back to 7 furlongs should be a dream come true for this frontrunning filly, who has trained up a storm since the Ashland.

Thanks to Gamine’s romp in the Acorn, Venetian Harbor figures to be overlooked in the Test, and Venetian Harbor is better suited to sprint 7 furlongs than Gamine.

A Venetian Harbor/Gamine exacta might not be the most likely outcome of the Test, but the value offered by playing Venetian Harbor on top should offset the risk involved.

$25 exacta: 6 with 5

Good luck!