Saratoga: Betting a longshot in the Ballerina

As a 7-furlong Grade 1 sprint, Saturday’s Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga is theoretically a test of speed. Yet the old saying “slow and steady wins the race” might be applicable in this competitive field.

A “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Nov. 7 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), the Ballerina is packed with speedy frontrunners.

Last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner, #1 Serengeti Empress, knows  only one way to run — all-out from start to finish. Royal Delta (G3) winner #2 Cookie Dough utilizes a similar style and has been cranking out blazing workouts. #5 Letruska has set the pace in all five of her U.S. starts, with three wins by daylight margins, and Vagrancy H. (G3) winner #3 Victim of Love is almost always part of the early pace.

Perhaps one of these speedy fillies will win the battle for early supremacy, shake clear of the field, and hold on to win in gutsy style. Certainly Serengeti Empress has shown the ability to battle through torrid fractions and hang tough down the lane. She finished second in the 2019 Test (G1) over this track and distance, after she carved out a :44.28 half-mile.

But the Ballerina seems just as likely to produce a destructive pace meltdown favorable to a deep closer. Pure speed might not be necessary to win this 7-furlong dash. A slow and steady style, coupled with enough stamina to pick up the pieces late, might prove to be the winning formula.

Grade 1 winner #4 Bellafina is a candidate to fit the bill, but she finished almost nine lengths behind Serengeti Empress in the 2019 Test and has lost seven of her last eight starts, including five defeats when she was favored to win. #7 Come Dancing won the 2019 Ballerina easily, but has seemed a bit less formidable this year and recently lost the Vagrancy at odds-on.

This leaves #6 Pink Sands as an intriguing alternative for hot trainer Shug McGaughey (3-for-13, 23% so far at Saratoga) and leading jockey Irad Ortiz (27-for-115, 23%). A 5-year-old daughter of Tapit, Pink Sands never fired when she stretched out over 1 1/16 miles in the Ogden Phipps (G1) two months ago.

But the Ogden Phipps marked Pink Sands’ first start in 4 1/2 months, following a productive winter campaign at Gulfstream Park. After she rallied from off the pace to win the 1-mile Rampart (G3) by a half-length over Cookie Dough, Pink Sands unleashed an even more spectacular charge to claim the 7-furlong Inside Information (G2) by three lengths, after she trailed by 4 1/2 at the eighth pole.

These eye-catching late rallies garnered Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 105 and 107, which are among the strongest in the Ballerina field. If Pink Sands bounces back in her second start off the layoff, she can capitalize on a fast pace in the Ballerina and rally to spring a surprise at enticing odds.

Let’s bet Pink Sands to win and key her in the exacta, with Serengeti Empress and Come Dancing.

$10 to win on #6 Pink Sands
$3 exacta: 6 with 1,7 ($6)
$7 exacta: 1,7 with 6 ($14)
Total: $30

Good luck!