Saratoga: Betting a longshot in the Fourstardave

When handicappers analyze Saturday’s Fourstardave H. (G1) at Saratoga, you can bet the vast majority will settle on at least one of the four horses trained by Chad Brown.

Brown has seemingly entered everything but the kitchen sink in the Fourstardave, which offers a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 7 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

His powerful brigade is led by reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winner #6 Uni, but Grade/Group 1 winners #1 Raging Bull, #7 Valid Point, and #8 Without Parole loom as formidable backup.

No one will be surprised if the Brown trainees sweep the exacta, trifecta, or even the superfecta, but victory isn’t guaranteed.

The quartet has gone just 1-for-7 this year, with Raging Bull’s triumph in the May 25 Shoemaker Mile (G1) the lone victory. Uni and Valid Point failed to challenge in their seasonal debuts, Without Parole is 0-for-3 this year, and even Raging Bull came up short when finishing third as the 6-5 favorite in the July 10 Maker’s Mark Mile (G1).

All four of Brown’s runners also prefer to rally from off the pace, which could be problematic, given the lack of speed in the Fourstardave field.

Defending Fourstardave winner #4 Got Stormy has tactical speed, but she is 0-for-4 this season and weakened to finish fourth in the 1-mile Poker (G3) last month. Aggressively pushing the pace seems unlikely for Get Stormy, who has historically performed best as a mid-pack closer.

As a result, #5 Halladay could find himself alone on the lead. Conditioned by hot trainer Todd Pletcher (a 27% winner at Saraotga this summer), Halladay brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, with a pair of 102 ratings when he wired an allowance and the Sunshine Forever S. at Gulfstream Park during the winter.

Halladay was particularly sharp in the Sunshine Forever, where he defeated future graded winners Aquaphobia, Social Paranoia, and Admission Office comfortably. And while he could only finish fourth after he tracked a slow pace in Saratoga’s Bernard Baruch H. (G2) last month, he was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths and should enjoy a return to frontrunning tactics.

Speed is Halladay’s greatest weapon, and if he shakes loose up front in the Fourstardave, he can hang on to surprise at a price.

Let’s key Halladay in the top two slots of the exacta and trifecta, with Raging Bull, Uni, and Without Parole in the remaining slots.

$3 exacta: 5 with 1,6,8 ($9)
$3 exacta: 1,6,8 with 5 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 5 with 1,6,8 with 1,6,8 ($6)
$1 trifecta: 1,6,8 with 5 with 1,6,8 ($6)
Total: $30

Good luck!