Saratoga: How to bet the Peter Pan

Sometimes handicapping a horse race requires a deep dive through the past performances and video replays to analyze all the data in an effort to come up with a winning play.

Other times, you can confidently settle on your preferred horse, even before the final entries are released. Such was the case when I handicapped the $100,000 Peter Pan (G3) on opening day, July 16, at Saratoga. The Peter Pan is a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race that awards 50 qualification points to the winner.

Based off the prospective field, I knew I would land on #6 Mystic Guide (5-2 on the morning line) as the most likely winner, and seeing the final entries has done nothing to change my mind. I have been excited about this Godolphin homebred ever since he rallied after a slow start to finish third in his debut Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds, where he was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths in a 6-furlong dash.

As a son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, out of the five-time Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Music Note, Mystic Guide is bred to improve with maturity and longer distances.

He thrived when he tackled 1 1/16 miles in a March 21 maiden event at Fair Grounds, where he settled three lengths off the pace and sprinted the final five-sixteenths of a mile in :30 flat to dominate by five lengths.

Mystic Guide was clearly full of run and eager to do more in his maiden win, which was even more remarkable when you consider he beat a quality field. Runner-up Amani’s Eagle and third-place finisher Verb have since won maiden races.

Following a 2 1/2-month layoff, Mystic Guide returned to action in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Belmont Park, where he ran deceptively well against talented rivals. The one-turn race unfolded in blazing fashion from start to finish, and Mystic Guide couldn’t catch the frontrunning winner Tap It to Win, who missed the track record by just 0.54 seconds. But Mystic Guide gained ground down the homestretch to finish clearly second best, ahead of fellow Peter Pan starter #2 Country Grammer (7-2).

Mystic Guide earned a competitive 95 Brisnet Speed rating, and he figures to improve in the stretch back out around two turns. Saratoga’s leading jockey of 2019, Jose Ortiz, will climb aboard for the first time, which sets the stage for Mystic Guide to prevail in his graded stakes debut.

Assuming his 5-2 morning-line odds hold up, we’ll bet Mystic Guide heavily to win. We’ll also bet him on top of a trifecta, with Country Grammer, #1 Mo Hawk (20-1), #3 Modernist (7-2), and #5 Candy Tycoon (5-1) underneath.

$28 to win on #6 Mystic Guide
$1 trifecta: 6 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 ($6)
Total: $40

Good luck!