Saratoga: How to bet the P.G. Johnson and New York Stallion Series

Simply Ravishing winning her debut at Saratoga. (Coglianese Photography/NYRA)

The final week of summer racing at Saratoga continues on Thursday with a pair of competitive stakes races: the $100,000 P.G. Johnson S. for 2-year-old fillies and the $100,000 New York Stallion Series S. (Park Avenue Division) for 3-year-old fillies.

I’m keen to support a couple of non-favored runners at fair prices, so let’s play both races on a $50 budget.

Race 3: P.G. Johnson S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:17 p.m. ET)

First-time starters trained by Kenny McPeek don’t reach the winner’s circle very often. But when they do, they often turn out to be classy horses. 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender Swiss Skydiver is a recent example, along with juvenile stakes winners Restless Rider and Crazy Beautiful.

#7 Simply Ravishing (9-2) delivered for McPeek in her debut on Aug. 2 at Saratoga, tracking the pace in a 1 1/16-mile turf race, before edging clear to score by a length. Her 76 Brisnet Speed rating wasn’t massive, but McPeek wins at a 32% rate with horses running on grass for the second time, and at a 25% rate with juvenile second-time starters. Simply Ravishing should take a step forward on Thursday, and her tactical speed will be an asset in this small field.

#6 Simply Ravishing (14/1) take the Saratoga opener pic.twitter.com/UICbGyFH35
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) August 2, 2020

At 9-2, a win bet on Simply Ravishing is in order. We’ll also play her on top of fellow debut winners #1 Invincible Gal (8-5) and #2 Plum Ali (6-5) in the exacta:

$20 to win on #7 Simply Ravishing
$5 exacta: 7 with 1,2 ($10)

Today's #Saratoga spotlight is on a @KennyMcPeek-trained filly... but what about this one? "That's a really, really good filly"..."I'm dreaming that next year she'll have us in the Alabama again," he told @Brian_J_Nadeau about #NYbred Simply Ravishing. P. G. Johnson next goal! pic.twitter.com/2VC2WIHQLn
— NYTB (@nytbreeders) August 15, 2020

Race 6: New York Stallion Series S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:01 p.m. ET)

#7 Officer Hutchy (9-5) is favored after rolling to victory in a 6-furlong, $25,000 claiming race against older rivals on Aug. 16. The 3-year-old filly posted a solid 99 Brisnet Speed rating, and she was claimed out of that event by high-percentage trainer Rob Atras, who strikes at a 22% rate with new acquisitions.

But while Officer Hutchy warrants respect, I’m just as intrigued by #3 Spin a Yarn (5-2), who is unbeaten and unchallenged in four starts at Finger Lakes. A daughter of capable sprinter/miler Forty Tales, Spin a Yarn is stepping up in class, but she’s beaten a bevy of next-out winners during her success streak and has the tactical speed to be a factor from the outset.

Let’s box Officer Hutchy and Spin a Yarn in the exacta: