Saratoga: How to bet the Travers Stakes

Although there are six stakes winners among the eight horses entered in Saturday’s historic Travers  (G1) at Saratoga, the race looks a two-horse battle, between #6 Tiz the Law (1-1) and #3 Uncle Chuck (5-2).

Tiz the Law needs no introduction. If not for a troubled trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall, the son of Constitution would likely be undefeated in six starts.

As it stands, Tiz the Law is a three-time Grade 1 winner, whose five victories have come by a minimum of three lengths. He has also posted a trio of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings this year, including a 106 when he romped to victory in the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Stakes (G1).

Owned by Sackatoga Stable and trained by Barclay Tagg, the same team behind 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Funny Cide, Tiz the Law has emerged as a clear favorite to win the postponed “Run for the Roses” on Sept. 5.

Yet, the 1 1/4-mile Travers — a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race that will award 100 qualification points to the winner — is also a race Sackatoga would love to win. To this end, Tiz the Law has been training sharply and figures to bring his "A" game to Saratoga, where he easily won his debut last summer.

If there’s one potential chink in Tiz the Law’s armor, it’s that he has yet to face the most elite competition on the Derby trail. Some of his key rivals this season — Ete Indien, Shivaree, and Dr Post, for example — have faltered in subsequent Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races. And Tiz the Law has yet to square off against any of the talented 3-year-olds based in California.

This will change Saturday, when Tiz the Law faces Uncle Chuck. A son of champion and successful sire Uncle Mo, Uncle Chuck has shown significant talent in his first two starts for three-time Travers-winning trainer Bob Baffert.

Uncle Chuck turned heads when he powered to a four-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby (G3) last month, a performance that was flattered when runner-up Thousand Words returned to upset a quality field in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. Uncle Chuck ran strongly down the homestretch in the Los Alamitos Derby and gave the impression 1 1/4 miles won’t be any obstacle.

He came back to post four fast workouts at Del Mar, which suggests this lightly raced youngster is ready to fire a huge effort in the Travers.

Baffert won the Travers in 2016 and 2017 with the similarly late-maturing 3-year-olds Arrogate and West Coast, so Uncle Chuck is following a winning formula.

If you’re like me and view the Travers as a two-horse race, with Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck splitting a 50-50 chance at victory, then the 5-2 morning line odds offered by Uncle Chuck are enticing.

Rather than play both Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck on top of my tickets, I’ll follow the wagering value and take a stand with Uncle Chuck. Underneath, I’ll use the improving Peter Pan (G3) winner #2 Country Grammer (6-1), Belmont Stakes third-place finisher #4 Max Player (6-1), and gallant Peter Pan runner-up #7 Caracaro (10-1)

$20 to win on #3 Uncle Chuck
$7 trifecta: 3 with 6 with 2,4 ($14)
$4 superfecta: 3 with 6 with 2,4 with 2,4,7 ($16)
Total: $50

Good luck!