Saratoga: Late runners could have an edge in Shuvee

Normally, I am keen to play speed horses in 1 1/8-mile dirt races at Saratoga.

According to Brisnet statistics, horses with “E” (early) and “E/P” (early/presser) running styles have combined to win 74% of 1 1/8-mile races during the current Saratoga meet. It pays to stay close to the pace in two-turn routes over the main track.

But is it possible to have too much of a good thing? As dangerous as speed might be, I’m concerned there’s too much entered in Sunday’s Shuvee (G3) at the Spa.

Nine fillies and mares have been entered in the 1 1/8-mile event, and the majority prefer to race on or near the lead.

You know #3 Letruska (3-1) is going to come blasting out of the gate. She has set the pace in five of her six U.S. starts and most recently pressed blazing fractions of :21.75 and :43.74 in the 7-furlong Ballerina (G1).

But Letruska is unlikely to be alone on the lead.

Puerto Rican shipper #1 Lucky Stride (15-1) loves to stalk the pace, #2 Bellera (10-1) is usually prominent early,  #4 Our Super Freak (6-1) is rarely more than a length or so out of the early mix, #5 Golden Award (9-2) won the 2019 Shuvee in frontrunning fashion, #6 Nonna Madeline (4-1) recently employed a pressing trip to win Saratoga’s 1 1/8-mile Summer Colony S., and even #9 Royal Flag (7-2) scored her biggest victory when she tracked a quick pace.

Perhaps one of the speed horses will settle farther off the pace than usual, pounce in the homestretch, and get first run at the (presumably) tiring pacesetters. Bellera — winner of the Comely (G3) and Ladies’ H. at  1 1/8 miles — has shown more tractability than most and could be a candidate to employ rating tactics.

Then again, perhaps the pace will fall apart completely and favor a deep closer. Graded stakes veteran #8 Another Broad (15-1) would be a beneficiary, but I’m more intrigued by #7 Lucky Move (12-1), who threw down a 102 Brisnet Speed rating when she rallied to victory in the 1 1/16-mile Obeah S. two starts back.

Lucky Move weakened when she pressed the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Delaware H. (G2) last time out, but she handled this distance just fine during the winter, when she lost by less than a length to Bellera in the Ladies’ H. A return to stretch-running tactics can put her in the hunt.

Let’s take a chance and key Bellera and Lucky Move in the exacta. If one or both finish in the top two, we’ll be rewarded with a hefty payoff.

$1 exacta: 2,7 with 2,3,5,6,7,9 ($10)
$1 exacta: 2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2,7 ($10)
Total: $20

Good luck!