Saratoga: Looking for a longshot in the Alabama

If there’s a sure bet in racing, it’s that #5 Swiss Skydiver (1-1) will be a heavy favorite to win the $500,000 Alabama (G1) on Saturday at Saratoga.

The speedy 3-year-old is easily the most accomplished filly entered in the 1 1/4-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep event. A dominant winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), Fantasy (G3), and Santa Anita Oaks (G2) during the spring, Swiss Skydiver enters the Alabama off a gutsy, runner-up effort against males in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass (G2), in which she finished behind only the acclaimed Art Collector and pulled 4 3/4 lengths clear of the rest.

With a trio of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings, Swiss Skydiver is the fastest horse in the Alabama field. She has already defeated many of the best 3-year-old fillies in training, including graded stakes winners Speech, Venetian Harbor, and Shedaresthedevil.

Surely Swiss Skydiver will record another resounding victory in the Alabama, right?

The 1 1/4-mile distance of the Alabama could be a stumbling block. As a daughter of sprinter/miler Daredevil, out of a mare by Johannesburg, Swiss Skydiver is bred for speed and figures to be at her best in short routes. Racing 1 1/16 miles — the distance of her three graded stakes wins — is probably her strong suit, so the Alabama could push the limits of her stamina.

Swiss Skydiver’s talent might be enough to overcome the obstacle, but she has been racing steadily since her debut in November and ran very hard in the Blue Grass. It is possible Swiss Skydiver will regress.

Belmont Park allowance winner #2 Spice Is Nice (3-1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) runner-up #3 Crystal Ball (9-2), and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner #4 Bonny South (8-1) are all logical alternatives to the favorite.

But if you want to think outside the box, why not take a chance with #6 Harvey’s Lil Goil (10-1)?

A daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Harvey’s Lil Goil made a fantastic visual impression when she dominated Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile Busanda S. during the winter. She made a powerful move on the far turn to draw away and score by 7 1/2 lengths, over next-out stakes winner Water White. That effort produced a 97 Brisnet Speed rating, not far off the best figures posted by Swiss Skydiver.

Harvey’s Lil Goil never fired when she finished 11th in the Fantasy, but rebounded on turf in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs, where she pressed steady fractions and battled on to win by a head.

Produced by the Tapit mare Gloria S, Harvey’s Lil Goil has enough stamina in her pedigree to suggest 1 1/4 miles is within reach, and she enters the Alabama fresh, with just two starts in the last six months.

Let’s bet Harvey’s Lil Goil to win and play her on top in the trifecta. Underneath, we’ll key Swiss Skydiver, with Spice Is Nice, Crystal Ball, and #1 Envoutante (8-1) in the final slots.

$12 to win on #6 Harvey’s Lil Goil
$3 trifecta: 6 with 5 with 1,2,3 ($9)
$3 trifecta: 6 with 1,2,3 with 5 ($9)
Total: $30

Good luck!