Saratoga Preview

by DICK POWELL

Chad or Todd? Irad or Jose?

These are the questions facing us as the 2018 Saratoga meet begins on Friday from the historic race course in Saratoga Springs.

The past three years have seen a neck-and-neck battle for the H. Allen Jerkens Training Title between Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. Pletcher, the former assistant to Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, was the leading trainer at Saratoga 13 times but his six-year winning streak was interrupted two years ago when Chad Brown set a new record of 40 training wins.

In the past three years, the balance of power has evened out and both trainers show up here with a lot of ammunition.

2015		Todd Pletcher:		34
		Chad Brown:		31

Brown, born in nearby Mechanicville, New York, has dominated the turf racing here and with more turf races being held than ever before, Pletcher’s advantage has been mitigated.

2015		Todd Pletcher:		22 wins on dirt		12 wins on turf
		Chad Brown:		9 wins on dirt		22 wins on turf

Brown broke through in 2016 with a record meet and the numbers show how he has had more dirt winners than ever before.

2016		Chad Brown:		40 total wins		14 wins on dirt		26 wins on turf
		Todd Pletcher:		31 total wins		23 wins on dirt		8 wins on turf

Last year, Pletcher was back with a vengeance and won the title back from Brown while tying his record of 40 training wins.

2017		Todd Pletcher:		40 total wins		28 wins on dirt		12 wins on turf
		Chad Brown:		39 total wins		15 wins on dirt		24 wins on turf

So, Brown’s dirt wins have increased from 9-to-14-to-15 while Pletcher’s turf wins have stayed steady with 12-to-8-to-12. The weather up here has been sensational so it enabled more turf races to be run, which is in Brown’s favor. If we have similar sunny weather, the trainer’s title should come down to the final weekend. If we have a wet season with many races off the turf, Pletcher would have a major advantage.

Beneath the big guys of the training ranks, Rudy Rodriguez won 39 races the past three years. Bill Mott and Kiaran McLaughlin won 38, Linda Rice won 33 and Christophe Clement won 26. Clement bears watching since he only had four winners last year and should bounce back with a good meet. Rice is coming off a strong Belmont meet and might have used up conditions there.

In the Angel Cordero Jockey’s race, Irad Ortiz Jr. won the title in 2015 with 57 wins.

2015		Irad Ortiz Jr.		57 total wins		23 wins on dirt		34 wins on turf
		Javier Castellano		54 total wins		30 wins on dirt		24 wins on turf
		Johnny Velazquez		45 total wins		29 wins on dirt		16 wins on turf
		Jose Ortiz		38 total wins		24 wins on dirt		14 wins on turf
		Luis Saez		35 total wins		16 wins on dirt		19 wins on turf

Jose Ortiz pulled away from his brother in 2016 and staked his claim as the one to beat at Saratoga no matter the surface.

2016		Jose Ortiz		65 total wins		31 wins on dirt		34 wins on turf
		Irad Ortiz Jr.		57 total wins		32 wins on dirt		25 wins on turf
		Javier Castellano		51 total wins		27 wins on dirt		24 wins on turf
		Johnny Velazquez		44 total wins		24 wins on dirt		20 wins on turf
		Luis Saez		28 total wins		19 wins on dirt		9 wins on turf

Jose reinforced his leading rider status last year, Johnny Velazquez continued to ride great and Javier Castellano saw his business suffer from the success of the Ortiz brothers.

2017		Jose Ortiz		58 total wins		28 wins on dirt		30 wins on turf
		Irad Ortiz Jr.		53 total wins		28 wins on dirt		25 wins on turf
		Johnny Velazquez		46 total wins		28 wins on dirt		18 wins on turf
		Javier Castellano		29 total wins		16 wins on dirt		13 wins on turf
		Luis Saez		28 total wins		19 wins on dirt		9 wins on turf

Irad has seen his turf wins go from 34-to-25-to-25 last year while Jose has gone from 14-to-34-to-30. Velazquez has been consistent with more wins coming on dirt than turf and Castellano has seen his business decline. With a new agent, maybe Castellano gets it going again but the Ortiz brothers look tough. Manny Franco, under the guidance of none other than Angel Cordero Jr. is sneaking into the picture and should represent strong pari-mutuel value along with Luis Saez.