Saratoga Scouting Report: Kentucky Horses for Saturday, August 10

With Churchill Downs coming off perhaps their strongest spring meet in history, the horses based in Kentucky should perform even better than they have in years past. Chances are, in many cases, they won’t get the respect they deserve. There is value to be had, but on the flipside, some of the Kentucky invaders might not be as good as they look on paper. That’s what I’m here for. For the entirety of the Saratoga meet, I will provide “scouting reports” for the Kentucky-based horses – good, bad and indifferent. Horses are listed in order of preference, with a short comment playability notation in the wrap. Race 8 – LONG WEEKEND (#5) (6-1) Bet down to 8-5 favoritism, this son of Majesticperfection inherited the lead early, dictated terms through even splits over a racetrack that favored inside speed, had full command off the turn while in hand, and was shown the whip late in what was essentially a public workout. Comment: Tough to gauge off the debut win. His main rival that day was the highly regarded Dennis’ Moment, who lost the rider after clipping heels. That colt has since returned to break his maiden by 19 1/4 lengths at Ellis Park. This colt didn’t have to run that fast to win his debut for fun, so chances are he has more to give. Just how much remains to be seen. Chances are he’ll offer a little value against these. Must use in the multi-race wagers and might be worth an intra-race play at fair odds. NOOSE (#1) (4-1) In tight while racing in the pocket behind a contested pace in his debut, he was forced to steady along much of the way. Loaded on the turn, he found a seam, took over, won under a mild hand ride and galloped out strongly. Comment: He was eager to go on debut, but the trip didn’t allow it. With all of the speed signed on here, that experience and the ability to overcome adversity should serve him well. He’s a must use in the multi’s. Race 10 NOTE: In her career debut on May 30 at Churchill, La Chancia (#3) (5-2) was super live on the tote. Off slowly losing seven lengths, she moved on the turn through traffic, rallied off heels and sustained her bid over a racetrack that was severely inside speed bias. She then overcame trouble to break her maiden at Belmont Park. She is squarely the filly to beat here. DIAMOND CRAZY (#) (12-1) To the delight of the Nexus Racing Club, Dallas Stewart had this gal ready to fire off the bench. Sitting the pocket trip behind a contested pace, she moved to threaten on the turn while still in hand. With clear aim and her sights set on the leaders, she extended her stride nicely and won going away. Comment: Scratched on July 24, this Louisiana-bred is a half to Saints Fan, who had a very promising career cut short. This is a solid step up off the maiden claiming win, but it doesn’t appear to be the strongest race for the level and she has improved with every start. If you’re not inclined to single La Chancia, then I would certainly consider using this gal. GRACEFUL PRINCESS (#2) (7-2) Enjoyed an advantageous, pocket trip behind moderate fractions on June 13. Was all in off the turn for home and failed to respond. Comment: Impeccably-bred daughter of Tapit out of 2011 Horse of the Year and champion older female Havre de Grace ran three promising races to begin her career, but disappointed in the return run with no visible excuse. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, so she’s likely to be over-bet. I’d be willing to fade her. PHOTO: Saratoga scenic (c) NYRA/Coglianese Photography