Saratoga Scouting Report: Kentucky Horses for Saturday, July 27

by Joe Kristufek With Churchill Downs coming off perhaps their strongest spring meet in history, the horses based in Kentucky should perform even better than they have in years past. Chances are, in many cases, they won’t get the respect they deserve. There is value to be had. That’s what I’m here for. For the entirety of the Saratoga meet, I will provide “scouting reports” for the Kentucky-based horses – good, bad and indifferent. Horses are listed in order of preference, with a short comment playability notation in the wrap. Race 2 – DOLL COLLECTION (#3) (3-1) The second foal out of the legendary sprinter Groupie Doll, this three-year-old filly has been very average so far. Two starts back sprinting she enjoyed an advantageous, pocket trip behind a 9-1 winner and raced evenly. Stretched out to a one-turn mile last out, she ran better. In what was a weak race for the level, she was hung three-wide throughout while chasing fast fractions. She closed in on the turn but simply could not go with the deep closing winner late. Comment: She’s an average filly in an average race. If you’re wanting to narrow, I couldn’t argue with fading her out. Race 4 – KOWALSKI (#5) (4-1) Word was out on this guy in his debut. Hammered down early in the wagering, he eventually floated up to 3-1. Off slowly losing five lengths at the start, he made a threatening move on the turn while hung six-wide and sustained that bid to finish third behind a very talented winner in Noose. The performance was even better than it looks on paper. Comment: With all the heavy hitters represented here, chances are this guy will offer some value. He’s a must use in the multi-race wagers and worth a bet at 5-1 or higher. Race 5 – KEEP QUIET (#9) (6-1) One might question his heart off three consecutive narrow defeats, but the reality is, he does try really hard. In his only start of the Churchill Downs meet on May 24, he stalked a fast pace while three-wide throughout. Hung four-wide off the turn, he led late and dug in gamely, only to be bested late by the legit Space Mountain, who had the benefit of closing into a hot pace. Claimed for $50,000 out of that race he steps up a notch for Steve Asmussen, and he does own a win and second from two starts over the Saratoga green. Comment: Fits well on the rise and has enough speed to stay close to what should be a moderate pace. Must use. COMBATANT (#4) (8-1) In tight between horses over a good main track last out, he was forced to close into moderate fractions and failed to make an impact. Grade 2-placed on turf, his most recent appearance on grass came at Fair Grounds. He finished an even seventh that day but was completely up against it. He was hung six-wide on the first turn and three-wide throughout over a turf course that favored inside speed. Comment: I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a competitive race, but the lack of early pace will likely compromise his chances to win. Only worth using in a spread scenario. WESTERLAND (#8) (15-1) Hasn’t raced since a mid-November start over the main track at Churchill. Over a main track that slightly favored wide and off the pace runners, he enjoyed a clear, stalking trip behind honest fractions, was all in while four-wide on the turn and failed to make an impact. Comment: Son of Frankel has been a zero for six disappointment in the United States. Gelding him offers hope, but this looks like a tough assignment off the bench. Seems like an easy pass. Race 7 – CROSSING THE MOON (#10) (6-1) Took some sneaky action on the toteboard in his career debut sprinting on dirt. Broke alertly from the extreme outside post in the field of 12, was hustled to contest the pace while four-wide and evened out late while under heavy urging. Comment: His half-sister won a stakes on turf at age two. I like the fact that he broke alertly on debut and that he has a race of experience under his belt, which could help him overcome the outside post. He’s a must use in the multi-race wagers and worth a bet at a square price. Race 9 – MR. CROW (#5) (15-1) Pressed a fast pace in a third-level optional claiming allowance last out, led off the turn for home, was headed while on the wrong lead, and then came back gamely to score a narrow win over He Hate Me, who has since returned to score at Saratoga. Comment: He needs to run faster than he ever has, and several others need to regress, before he can get a sniff here. In other words, easy pass. PHOTO: Saratoga Race Course (c) Adam Coglianese Photography