Saratoga Scouting Report: Kentucky Horses for Thursday, July 25

by Joe Kristufek With Churchill Downs coming off perhaps their strongest spring meet in history, the horses based in Kentucky should perform even better than they have in years past. Chances are, in many cases, they won’t get the respect they deserve. There is value to be had. That’s what I’m here for. For the entirety of the Saratoga meet, I will provide “scouting reports” for the Kentucky-based horses – good, bad and indifferent. Horses are listed in order of preference, with a short comment playability notation in the wrap. Race 3 – LUCKY MOVE (#1) (4-1) Capable on all surfaces, she was last seen finishing third over a one-turn mile. Off two lengths slow, she would enjoy a dream run at the rail while stalking an honest pace. The main track did slightly favor outside closers that day. Comment: The move to New York-bred company helps her cause, and the under the radar connections likely help the price. Nine furlongs should be within her scope against this kind. Deserves respect. Race 4 – BAIL OUT (#3) (5-2) He’s winless from eight starts with four seconds and a third. Has he been a victim of hard luck or does he just lack competitiveness? I side strongly with the former. In the Keeneland race back in October, he closed relentlessly, but was bothered late and was probably best. The winner could have easily been taken down. He didn’t have the cleanest of trips in either of the two follow-up starts and, most recently at Churchill Downs, he led late before being run over by the stakes-caliber Avigale, who flew home in visually impressive fashion. Comment: Catches a short field and the pedigree suggests that he should like the added distance. Must still be viewed as a top contender. Race 5 – REPLETE (#5) (15-1) Ran off on the lead two starts back over 1 1/16 miles and tired in the final furlong. Looked like a horse who needed a cutback, and that’s exactly what he got in his next start. He lost three lengths at the start of that six-furlong contest and rushed up to the pocket, then had a perfect stalking trip from the catbird’s seat. Still in hand off the turn, he finished strongly, won going away and galloped out best. Comment: He’s never been better and the seven-furlong distance should hit him right between the eyes. If he can sit just off an expected fast pace, his chances will improve. Must be respected here, particularly at a square price. JOHNY’S BOBBY (#2) (8-1) Considering he chased a fast pace over a one-turn mile last out, this late runner actually laid a lot closer to the early fractions than expected. Hung six-wide on the turn, he was bumped at the top of the stretch, but carried on to score a solid victory. That was the best performance of his career, but he steps up to face a considerably tougher task in this one. Comment: The arrow is pointing up, but I’m not sure the conditions are optimum. Has some speed to run at, but he would need the race to completely fall apart. An underneath threat and a stretch in the multi-race wagers. PYRON (#3) (8-5) Off a trio of promising starts to begin his career, this son of Candy Ride took a small step backward last time out. Off slowly losing two lengths, he was steadied early and covered up at the rail before finishing evenly. Comment: This one could go either way, but he probably looks better on paper than he actually is. I’M BUSY (#8) (12-1) Hung four than three wide two starts back and failed to make an impact. Won for fun last time out, but he got away with murder on the front end, setting a slow and solo pace over a sloppy track that favored speed. Comment: Enjoyed a dream run last time out against a much softer field than this. Would be a stretch here. Race 6 – JOY OF TREASURE (#11) (3-1) On paper, she ran the best race of her life last out, but there are reasons for that. First of all, she enjoyed a clean trip behind a hot pace, and secondly, it wasn’t the strongest race for the level. Comment: This isn’t the strongest race for the level either and it looks like she’ll have an honest pace to kick at. A must use but tough to lean on. RIGHTEOUS RUBY (#3) (5-2) (main track only) This marginally-bred daughter of Revolutionary continues to legitimize herself. A 13-1 overlay two starts back, she actually won against the outside closers bias, showing speed from the rail and coming back gamely after being headed late. She proved the performance was no fluke last out, overcoming a slow start and a claustrophobic trip to score a stalk and pounce victory. Comment: Should this race get washed off the turf, she will make her first start off the Danny Gargan claim. She fits very favorably with those who would run on the main track and would be considered as a must use. PHOTO: Saratoga scenic (c) NYRA/Coglianese Photography