Saratoga: Smart plays in the Lake Placid Stakes

A small but competitive field of three-year-old fillies will race 1 1/16 miles in Saturday’s Lake Placid S. (G2) over the Saratoga turf course.

The morning line odds suggest the race will be a one-sided affair, but I’m not sure that’s guaranteed to be the case. True, #2 Technical Analysis (6-5) brings encouraging credentials to the table; the Chad Brown trainee has won three of her five starts on grass, including the one-mile Lake George S. (G3) at Saratoga last month.

But the Lake George wasn’t the deepest race, and Technical Analysis didn’t finish particularly fast, running her final quarter-mile in approximately :24.74 over a firm turf course. When she squared off against tougher competition in the Wonder Again S. (G3) two starts back, Technical Analysis could only finish sixth.

As a result, I’m tempted to oppose Technical Analysis with a pair of fillies offering better odds: #5 Lovestruck (6-1) and #6 Spanish Loveaffair (3-1). The Lake Placid field doesn’t contain any clear pacesetters on paper, so Lovestruck and Spanish Loveaffair—who typically employ pace-tracking tactics—figure to enjoy favorable trips.

Spanish Loveaffair is the more accomplished of the duo, having competed in such important events as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and Belmont Oaks (G1) while placing multiple times at the graded stakes level. Two starts back, she employed pressing tactics to finish second in the 1 1/8-mile Regret S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, and cutting back slightly in distance to 1 1/16 miles should be right up her alley.

As for Lovestruck, she went 2-for-2 racing 1 1/16 miles on turf last season, breaking her maiden against a strong field at Saratoga before unleashing a sharp stretch rally to win the Tepin S. at Aqueduct. She failed to seriously challenge in her 2021 debut, weakening from a tracking position to finish last in the one-mile Wild Applause S. at Belmont, but she was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths and is eligible to step forward in her second run of the season. It’s worth noting Lovestruck will drop her blinkers on Saturday, a winning move 32% of the time for trainer Bill Mott.

So what’s the smartest way to bet the Lake Placid? I recommend playing Lovestruck and Spanish Loveaffair on top of an exacta ticket while adding Technical Analysis for second place. If a slow pace unfolds, one of our speedy upset candidates will have every chance to steal the show.

$5 Exacta: 5,6 with 2,5,6  ($20)

Good luck!