Saratoga: Spot plays for Saranac, Amsterdam, Forego, Sword Dancer

The penultimate Saturday of the Saratoga meet features a quartet of competitive graded stakes races.

The Sword Dancer (G1) and Forego (G1) are the highlights in terms of prestige and betting value. The Sword Dancer even offers a “Win and You’re In” qualifying berth to the Nov. 7 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). But the Saranac (G3) and Amsterdam (G2) have also drawn quality fields with the potential to produce lucrative payoffs.

Let’s play all four graded stakes races on an $100 budget.

Race 3: Saranac (G3, 2:18 p.m. ET)

The French shipper #4 L’Imperator has won his last three starts and looms as an obvious threat for top turf trainer Chad Brown, while #9 Embolden has cracked the trifecta five times against stakes company. But the most intriguing contender in this 1-mile grass test is #5 Don Juan Kitten.

A son of Kitten’s Joy, Don Juan Kitten fired a big effort over this course and distance July 25. Against seven rivals in a 1-mile allowance, Don Juan Kitten endured a tricky trip. He raced in second, as longshot Montauk Daddy ran off to a 14 1/2-length lead with blazing fractions.

Don Juan Kitten arguably moved too soon into this hot pace. He confronted the pacesetter with a quarter-mile remaining but still sprinted the final quarter in :23 3/5 to defeat a trio of late runners by 2 1/2 lengths.

With his blend of tactical speed and finishing power, Don Juan Kitten can steal the show in the Saranac.

$12 to win on #5 Don Juan Kitten
$2 exacta: 5 with 4,9 ($4)
$4 exacta: 4,9 with 5 ($8)
Total: $24

Race 7: Amsterdam (G2, 4:32 p.m. ET)

#2 Yaupon is 2-for-2 and made a great impression in a 6-furlong allowance sprint July 18 at Saratoga. After he carved out fast fractions of :22.22 and :44.74, Yaupon kicked clear to win easily by 3 3/4 lengths and earned a 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

This lightly raced son of Uncle Mo could be any kind, and the stretch out to 7 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue. We’ll bet Yaupon to win and single him to kick off double and Pick 3 wagers.

$24 to win on #2 Yaupon
$6 double: 2 with 6,11 ($12)
$2 Pick 3: 2 with 6,11 with 1,2,6,8 ($16)
Total: $52

Race 8: Forego (G1, 5:07 p.m. ET)

Considering the Forego is a 7-furlong sprint, it’s astonishing to see how little speed has been entered. The only runner who has displayed any frequent interest in setting the pace is #6 Complexity, and this tendency might land the son of Maclean’s Music in the winner’s circle.

A gate-to-wire winner of the 2018 Champagne (G1), Complexity is a delicate colt, and his career has been dotted with long layoffs. But he trounced allowance foes traveling a one-turn mile at Belmont Park on July 2. He won by 2 1/4 lengths, with a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, and a repeat of this effort would make Complexity dangerous under jockey Jose Ortiz.

We’ll use Complexity and his improving stablemate, #11 Fortin Hill, in double and Pick 3 wagers.

$6 double: 4,11 with 6,8 ($24)

Race 9: Sword Dancer (G1, 5:43 p.m. ET)

#6 Cross Border has speed, #8 Sadler’s Joy has a big finishing kick, and they finished a neck apart in the 1 3/8-mile Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga on Aug. 1.

Sadler’s Joy might be more experienced at the 1 1/2-mile trip of the Sword Dancer (he won the race in 2017), but Cross Border is 5-for-5 at the Spa and warrants respect as a horse for the course.

#2 Aquaphobia is in strong form, too. The former claimer won the United Nations (G1) last month, with a strong rally down the homestretch. And the veteran late runner #1 Highland Sky is worth a look at a price, after he charged hard to finish third by 1 1/4 lengths in the Bowling Green.

We’ll favor Cross Border and Sadler’s Joy in our double ticket, but use all four to conclude our Pick 3.

Good luck!