Saudi Cup Day prospectus: Country Grammer, Taiba, Elite Power among probables

Now that the projected fields for the Feb. 25 Saudi Cup Day extravaganza have been announced, let’s get a head start on the handicapping! Here are the key contenders in the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) as well the five Thoroughbred stakes on the undercard.

Saudi Cup (G1)

Country Grammer is spoiling for a rematch with local hero Emblem Road, who ran him down to spark a $229.20 shock at King Abzulaziz Racecourse a year ago. Unlike 2022, when Country Grammer was coming off a nearly nine-month layoff, the Bob Baffert charge has the benefit of a solid fall campaign under his belt. Indeed, his 4 1/2-length victory in the Dec. 26 San Antonio (G2) underscores that he’s a different proposition in his second visit to Riyadh.

But the biggest danger to Country Grammer is down his own shedrow – Taiba. On a steep learning curve throughout his sophomore season, Taiba put it all together in resounding fashion in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Malibu (G1). In between he was third to the peerless Flightline in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The about 1 1/8-mile Saudi Cup, around one turn, plays more to Taiba’s strengths. After all, Country Grammer’s signature wins have come over further, in the 2021 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and last year’s Dubai World Cup (G1).

Beyond the American dynamos, however, there’s a six-strong team for Japan. Although out of luck so far in the main event, the Japanese won four races on Saudi Cup Day 2022 and came within a half-length of sweeping the supporting stakes. Christophe Lemaire rode all four winners, so keep an eye on his mounts again this year.

Cafe Pharoah, the American Pharoah half-brother to newly-minted Eclipse champion Regal Glory, was recently honored as Japan’s champion dirt horse. A two-time winner of the February (G1) around Tokyo’s one-turn metric mile, he was last seen getting up on the wire in the Oct. 10 Mile Championship Nambu Hai at Morioka. The one-turn configuration suits him, although this distance might be nearing his upper limit these days.

Jun Light Bolt booked his Saudi ticket in the Dec. 4 Champions Cup (G1), where he nabbed Crown Pride, last year’s UAE Derby (G2) winner and Kentucky Derby (G1) also-ran. Both were continuing streaks. Turf-turned-dirt performer Jun Light Bolt was winning his third straight, while Crown Pride was prolonging his seconditis since returning to action after the Derby.

Panthalassa flopped in his lone start on dirt, but that was more than two years ago, and the daring front runner can’t be dismissed. Trained by Breeders’ Cup-winning Yoshito Yahagi, he took his game on the road to the Mideast last year and held on for a dead-heat victory in the Dubai Turf (G1). Panthalassa almost pulled off a wire job in the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1) two back, only to be caught by eventual Horse of the Year Equinox. If he handles the surface, Panthalassa will at the very least ensure a robust pace as he plays catch-me-if-you-can. A punishing early tempo would put a premium on stamina, and elevate Country Grammer.

Vin de Garde, who was flying late in a near-miss third in the Dubai Turf, will make his dirt debut off a layoff here. Geoglyph likewise tests dirt for the first time, but with a likelier case to adapt as a son of U.S. champion Drefong. Last year’s Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) hero exits a sixth in the Dec. 11 Hong Kong Cup (G1) at Sha Tin, with Panthalassa further behind in 10th.

The lone European shipper, Saffron Beach, was purchased for about $4.5 million at Tattersalls late last November specifically to point for the Saudi Cup. The multiple Group 1-winning miler was fourth to Panthalassa in her only try versus males in last season’s Dubai Turf. Saffron Beach could act on dirt, since she’s from the sire line of Dubawi and out of a mare by the versatile Raven’s Pass, victor of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic on Santa Anita’s old synthetic surface.

Dubai-based Remorse comes off a distant third to major World Cup hope Algiers in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) at Meydan. Sixth to Country Grammer in last year’s World Cup, the Bhupat Seemar trainee has been a bridesmaid at the Group level.

Of the local quartet, Emblem Road captured his Jan. 13 comeback, but stablemate Scotland Yard has the potential to be even better. As explored in depth in this recent feature on Scotland Yard, the former Steve Asmussen runner has won all three starts convincingly since his importation.

Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3)

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) star Elite Power and Grade 1 veteran Gunite will tackle Japan’s defending champion Dancing Prince. Tackle is the operative word, since the 2022 Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) lacked American representation, and Dancing Prince will face a sterner test this time. He has not raced since taking the Nov. 3 JBC Sprint, a couple of days before Elite Power’s Eclipse-clinching win in the Breeders’ Cup for Bill Mott. Asmussen’s Gunite, on the other hand, has a recent prep in the Jan. 28 King Cotton S. at Oaklawn, where he drew off by four lengths.

Japan has an up-and-coming sprinter in Remake, who closed from far back to dismiss old stagers Ryuno Yukina and Justin in the Dec. 11 Capella (G3). The Dubai sprint ranks are led by reigning Golden Shaheen (G1) victor Switzerland, who returned triumphant in the Jan. 6 Dubawi (G3) over Mouheeb. But Switzerland’s been unplaced in both prior tries in this race, and Mouheeb, still with upside, is eligible to gain revenge here.

The wild card is last year’s Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) scorer Meraas. Subsequently sent to Chad Summers stateside, he was third to Elite Power in his American bow at Saratoga, and just dominated an Aqueduct allowance on the front end Dec. 30.

Saudi Derby (G3)

Much like the Saudi Cup, the Saudi Derby (G3) can be framed as a Baffert duo – Havnameltdown and Speed Boat Beach – squaring off against Japan. But there are a couple of South Americans to note as well.

Speed Boat Beach is proven over a mile, having taken the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) on the Del Mar turf. In contrast, Havnameltdown has a distance scruple, judging by his diminishing margin in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2).

The winners of the first two scoring races on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, Continuar and Derma Sotogake, will be finishing strongly. Grade 2-placed turf performer From Dusk, a free-wheeling type dependent on the break, has claims to handle dirt as a son of Bolt d’Oro. Yet the presence of serious American speed is an additional challenge. More details can be found in this feature on the Japanese-based Triple Crown nominees.

The Uruguayan hopefuls had tune-ups at the Dubai Carnival, both in the Jan. 13 UAE 2000 Guineas Trial. Es-Unico was a rallying second, but Loreley was a subpar sixth. An excuse came to light; he scoped dirty postrace. As a nearly 14-length winner of a listed stakes in his prior outing at Maronas, Loreley is capable of much better. Of the Saudis, My Map and Commissioner King are the joint highest-rated, but My Map is a perfect 4-for-4.

1351 Turf Sprint (G3)

Named for its distance in meters, the 1351 Turf Sprint (G3) serves up a reunion of the respective top five from last year – Japan’s Songline, Mott’s Casa Creed, British shipper Happy Romance, Japan’s Lauda Sion, and British veteran Pogo.

But this year’s new faces are perhaps even more alluring. Godolphin’s Creative Force was a barnstorming third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) over a 5 1/2-furlong trip shorter than ideal; this about 6 3/4-furlong affair is a better fit. Note that he’s the only Saudi Cup Day contender for Charlie Appleby. Likewise exiting the Turf Sprint are Casa Creed (ninth) and Cazadero (11th), who could not make an impact from off the pace. Cazadero’s previous Nearctic (G2) coup proves that he has been reinvented as a turf sprinter by Brendan Walsh. 

Japan’s Bathrat Leon was a close fourth in the Dec. 24 Hanshin Cup (G2), the same race that Songline used last year, in his first try at about seven furlongs. The Yahagi pupil is best known for his exploits at a mile, especially his 2022 Godolphin Mile (G2) shocker on the Meydan dirt. Bathrat Leon also hung tough for a long way when fourth to Baaeed and Breeders’ Cup champion Modern Games in last summer’s Sussex (G1) at Glorious Goodwood.

Songline, who went on to win the prestigious Yasuda Kinen (G1), hasn’t raced since September. A setback ruled her out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), so she lacks the relative recency she had last year. Compatriot Resistencia would be a force at her best, but the 2019 champion two-year-old filly was in better form about a year or so ago.

Lusail just missed in last summer’s St. James’s Palace (G1) and finished third in the Prix Jean Prat (G1) versus fellow sophomores. Another from the Prat, the Aga Khan-bred Rozgar, was a close sixth. Later sold for $784,000 at Arqana’s Arc Sale, he can be forgiven his flop on dirt in his Saudi debut. It wouldn’t be a shock if he’s a different animal back on turf.

Neom Turf Cup (G3)

No Japanese (or American) interests, but the Europeans loom as large as you’d expect in the about 1 5/16-mile prize. I’m most interested in the progressive Missed the Cut, who is making a name for himself like his young trainer George Boughey. A terrific winner of a Royal Ascot handicap, the Kentucky-bred by Quality Road edged Algiers in a course-record Churchill S. on the Lingfield Polytrack. That result has taken on new significance since Algiers has run off the screen in the first two rounds of the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan.

John and Thady Gosden’s multiple Group 3 scorer Mostahdaf should find this more feasible than his latest venture in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), although he might find this trip on the sharper side. Veteran Sir Busker found new life stretching out last summer, and he’ll move forward off a slow-starting second in Lingfield’s Feb. 4 Tandridge S. Finest Sound has a bit to find with his fellow British shippers, but he has tactical speed.

Saeed bin Suroor is double-handed with Bahrain International Trophy (G3) winner Dubai Future and the filly White Moonlight. While Dubai Future was beaten in his past two at the Dubai Carnival going shorter, this distance is more suitable. White Moonlight has been second in last her pair at Meydan, notably runner-up to Appleby’s smart With the Moonlight in the Cape Verdi (G2), and she could improve over added ground.

Red Sea Turf H. (G3)

The overriding story line is Subjectivist, who has been sidelined since his stunning victory in the 2021 Gold Cup (G1) at Royal Ascot. The son of Teofilo was completing a hat trick of major staying events, only to be injured in his prime. If trainer Charlie Johnston, now alone at the helm following the retirement of father Mark, can bring him back anywhere near that level first-up, it would be incredible. Aside from the long absence, Subjectivist has to deal with top weight in the about 1 7/8-mile handicap.

Trawlerman sports the best current form; the Ebor H. winner was last seen placing third in the British Champions Long Distance Cup (G2) for the Gosdens. But Get Shirty was a respectable fifth in the Ebor under a much bigger weight (138 pounds). Previously toppling well-regarded Cleveland at Royal Ascot, he is now rounding back into form at Meydan. Enemy, a near-miss third to Princess Zoe and Quickthorn in the 2022 Sagaro (G3), just upset a Meydan handicap in his first start since wind surgery.

Al Qareem, the brave Prix Chaudenay (G2) winner, is intriguing based on his earlier near-miss to Deauville Legend in the Bahrain Trophy (G3). Deauville Legend would finish an honorable fourth versus elders as the Melbourne Cup (G1) favorite. German raider Sisfahan, with loads of back class, has been set for this race after working his way back from injury. Any move forward from his program late last season puts him right there. French expat Master Gatsby, another Arqana Arc recruit for Saudi interests, has a stealthy look as a Group 3 winner in his only attempt at this distance. 

The Japanese pair by definition warrant respect, especially since last year’s winner from Japan, Stay Foolish, didn’t stand out on paper. Silver Sonic arguably wants even longer, but he’s got a kick, and comes off a breakthrough in the Sports Nippon Sho Stayers (G2). Echt could find a new level on the step up in trip.