Selections for Friday’s card at Royal Ascot 2019
Frankie Dettori stole the show Thursday at Royal Ascot, winning all four Group events and leaving the overseas bookmakers reeling. We might be overestimating his chances in a couple races, but the Italian riding great could be in line to win as many as three more pattern events on Day 4 of the Royal meeting on Friday. Here's how things look to us going in.
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Race 1, The Albany (G3)
#6 DAAHEYEH (6-1) has an excellent piece of form as she looked very professional for her age in winning a May 18 Newmarket maiden by 1 3/4 lengths over Raffle Prize, who landed the Queen Mary (G2) on Wednesday. From all appearances, this daughter of Bated Breath should relish the step up to six furlongs.
#9 EXCLUSIVELY (20-1) was very early to race with a couple starts in April. The first was a decent-looking maiden win at Redcar, and last time she was wore down late at Salisbury by Good Vibes, subsequently a stakes winner at York. Enters fresh with plenty of upside, and price should be right with rising star Oisin Murphy up.
#16 LAST SURPRISE (15-1) is the first mount of the day for Dettori. She wheels back on relatively short rest after a sharp 3 1/2-length debut score over the all-weather at Lingfield, rating very close to the pace before asserting her superiority in the stretch going this distance. Remains to be seen whether she transfers her form to turf, but she is by Prix Morny (G1) and Norfolk (G2) winner No Nay Never. She's trained by Simon Crisford, who teamed up with Dettori to take the Norfolk on Thursday.
#20 NAYIBETH (4-1) looks best of the two Wesley Ward runners. We'll see how far she can stretch her speed after dominating her Keeneland debut going 4 1/2 furlongs. A flyer for the exotics is #19 MOON OF LOVE (30-1), who was badly hampered in her June 8 debut at Beverley in a relatively lucrative conditions race. She was in contention for the win at the time of trouble, and might move forward from that despite the quick turnaround.
Race 2, The King Edward VII (G2)
#8 PRIVATE SECRETARY (3-1) appeared as if he could have given a lot more when taking the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood by a measured head last time at just short of this distance. Second twice as a juvenile, he's now won three straight and is reunited here with Dettori, who was aboard for his most authoritative win over a stiff 10 furlongs at Sandown. Like Star Chaser in Thursday's Ribblesdale (G2), this has probably been the goal from early in the season.
#5 JAPAN (6-5) exceeded expectations in the Epsom Derby (G1), narrowly losing as a 20-1 chance by a half-length to stable companion Anthony Van Dyck. Obviously much improved off his season-opening fourth in the Dante (G2), but he's now going from overlay-in-retrospect to likely underlay here at 7-5 or less.
#3 HUMANITARIAN (15-1) also outran expectations at Epsom, finishing seventh as a 33-1 chance after a slow start. Like #1 BANGKOK (10-1), he might not have been entirely suited to the Surrey course, which is not to everyone's taste.
#6 PABLO ESCOBARR (8-1) was a clear second to Anthony Van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby Trial and wisely passed on the Epsom classic to aim for this more reasonable goal. A worthy inclusion in Trifecta plans. #7 PONDUS (5-1) is an intriguing stakes newcomer who's reeled off two straight after dropping his debut in April. Relative lack of seasoning a concern.
Race 3, The Commonwealth Cup (G1)
Can Dettori help lift #1 ADVERTISE (10-1) into the winner's circle? Given his juvenile form, the support for this colt was a tad cool heading into the 2000 Guineas (G1), and things panned out that way as he finished 15th of 19. It certainly could have been him not getting the mile, but the effort was below par all around. This trip should suit much better; after finishing a length second to the sadly-missed Calyx in the course-and-distance Coventry (G2), he ripped off wins in the July (G2) and Phoenix (G1) before splitting Too Darn Hot and Anthony Van Dyck in the Dewhurst (G1). Although not expecting double digits now with Frankie in the saddle, he's capable of much better and seems worth taking a shot with at the price.
#7 TEN SOVEREIGNS (6-5) captured the Middle Park (G1) against a couple of these last fall and perhaps would have been closer when well-backed in the 2000 Guineas if not racing on the wrong part of the course which, based on the result, favored horses racing closer to the stands. Will take some beating dropping back in trip.
#3 JASH (4-1) has just suffered the one loss -- to Ten Sovereigns in the Middle Park -- and didn't need to be fully cranked to win the King Charles II Stakes in his May 19 comeback at Newmarket. Should improve from that run.
#4 KHAADEM (7-1) enters with three wins from four starts, including a respectable half-length triumph in the Carnarvon Stakes over a straight six at Newbury. Likely to be overlooked a tad with no Group form to go by, but certainly acts like one who will make an impact at this level going forward. #2 HELLO YOUMZAIN (9-2) benefited from quick ground when handing the exciting (and subsequently injured) Calyx a first career loss in the Sandy Lane (G2) at Haydock. Waters are deeper this time around.
Race 4, The Coronation (G1)
She concedes relative seasoning with just the two runs since her career commenced on April 25, but #4 JUBILOSO (4-1) aggressively and confidently spotted here by Sir Michael Stoute after demolishing male rivals by seven lengths in her turf debut at Newbury last time. Bred to be any kind as she's by Shamardal and out of a half-sister to the legendary Frankel and multiple Group 1 winner Noble Mission, who's own status is rising at stud.
#3 HERMOSA (1-1) obviously the one to beat after back-to-back victories in the 1000 Guineas (G1) and Irish 1000 Guineas (G1). Her stature has certainly risen in the past seven weeks or so when she was a modest 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Perhaps has enjoyed favorable trips to an extent thus far and we'll see if more early pressure will be applied this time.
#2 HAPPEN (15-1) is a somewhat intriguing second stringer from Coolmore who needed every last bit of seven furlongs to win a Group 3 at The Curragh last time. Has probably been begging for more distance for awhile.
French invader #1 CASTLE LADY (7-1) puts her undefeated mark on the line after reeling off three wins early in the year, including the French 1000 Guineas (G1) narrowly over Commes, who just missed in the French Oaks (G1) last weekend. How the French form stacks up with the English/Irish form is anyone's guess beforehand. #8 PRETTY POLLYANNA (7-1) a solid second to Hermosa in the Irish Guineas in what was her season debut, but feeling is she's still better at distances short of this.
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More analysis is available on the Royal Ascot news and notes page.
PHOTO: Queen Elizabeth in the Royal Procession on June 19, 2019, at Ascot Race Course during Royal Ascot (c) Horsephotos.com
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