Shapiro's analysis of Golden Gate Fields' Pick 5 carryover
by Scott Shapiro
With the Del Mar Bing Crosby meeting in the rearview mirror and a Pick 5 carryover on Thursday of $43,854 it is a perfect time to head up Interstate 5 to Golden Gate Fields.
The five-race sequence offers a six-horse field to commence the card and then four consecutive races with eight runners. Despite the lack of massive field sizes the races are competitive, which should lead to a solid payday for those fortunate enough to navigate their way through the first five races.
Here are some thoughts and how I will attack the first Pick 5 of the week in Northern California.
Race 1
A conditional $6250 claiming event at one mile over the synthetic surface gets things rolling.
I am not crazy about any of the geldings exiting the November 5th race at this level, so I will include both of the newcomers to this group in On Fire (#3) and Dizzy Dancer (#6).
On Fire makes his first start off the claim for trainer Isidro Tamayo after a win at six panels over this racetrack on November 10. Tamayo has hit with three of his last nine going first off the claim and is having a solid 2017 winning at a 20 percent clip overall. If this son of Friesan Fire takes to the stretch out to two turns he should be a major player at a solid price.
Dizzy Dancer makes his initial try off the claim for trainer Victor Trujillo after a win against lesser last time out. I like the outside draw because it should allow him to stalk the early pace of Rainbow North (#1) and get the jump on his main rivals.
I will also include Nahem (#5) based on his success over this course and distance. If the new shooters fail to fire I like his chances best of those exiting the November 5 race over this course and distance.
Race 2
The second is an open $12,500 claimer at 5 1/2 panels over the main track.
Chiefs Lil Pearl (#2) is the one to beat on paper for trainer William Morey. The daughter of Bold Chieftain has rattled off a win and a second since the start of fall and should appreciate the slight turn back in distance. However, she was all over the racetrack last time out in the stretch, so I cannot fully trust her at a short price.
I will also include Gambler’s Appeal (#6) who will benefit if they go too fast early on and Miss Diamond G (#8) who should appreciate the move to the far outside after being drawn towards the inside in each of her first five starts.
Race 3
My single in the sequence will come in this conditional $8K claimer at six furlongs. Kochees (#4) moves from turf to dirt for trainer Blaine Wright after an even fourth place finish in his first try off a nine and a half month layoff. Wright is a strong 23 percent over his last 53 starters with runners going from turf to the synthetic surface and this son of Lion Heart has shown an affinity for the distance (six wins in 15 starts) and surface (five wins in 11 starts) He should sit a perfect trip a few lengths off of a contentious early pace and get the best of this group in the lane.
Race 4
The fourth is the lone grass race in the sequence. I picked Enchanted Joanie (#1) on top, but she does not offer much value. Her running style and rail draw are ideal for this one-mile event, but I do not fully trust her to get to the wire first.
Therefore, I will also include Peaked (#4) who comes off a solid fourth place finish in a race washed off the lawn for trainer Blaine Wright. She could be ready for a career best effort in her third start of the form cycle.
Gilded (#5) and Red City Zip (#8) also offer some appeal. Both have a victory over the lawn in their career and with the right trip can get their picture taken once again.
Race 5
The payoff leg is a real head scratcher to me, so I will use several.
Jersey Buns (#1) is the 2-1-morning line favorite on the drop in class for trainer Tim McCanna, but she has been a huge disappointment for owner Charles Fipke. The rail draw and the suspicious move all the way to the bottom make her impossible to trust.
Lazzarella (#2) takes a less suspicious drop and makes some sense on the cutback for trainer Blaine Wright. Wright excels moving his stock from routes to sprints and this daughter of Tizbud possesses enough tactical speed to not be too far out of it early on.
Hotflickarue (#4) is a real tricky read making her first start in over a year for trainer William Morey. She comes out of better races in 2016, but the fact they are giving up on her off the layoff is troubling.
Tuesdays Supernova (#6) has finished second beaten less than a length in three of her last four starts. It is likely that at least one will be better than her again on Thursday, but 8-1 is a fair price.
Pattin for a Dance (#7) ships in from Southern California for trainer Matthew Chew. Chew has been running well of late and this daughter of Country Day has shown enough to include.
My Ticket
Race 1: 3+5+6
Race 2: 2+6+8
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 1+4+5+8
Race 5: 1+2+4+6+7
Total Budget: $90
Good luck at the windows!
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